Toronto Blue Jays: Looking through a buy-low lens

The Blue Jays have managed to extract some remarkable value from their recent free agent signings. Who might they target this offseason?

We already know that if they’re serious about trying to retain one or both of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien that they’re going to have to spend big to do so. Last season Ross Atkins and company struck one-year contract gold with both players, signing Ray for eight million on his way to likely winning the AL Cy Young award, and Semien for 18 million, only to be rewarded with production that was good enough for a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove award, and also a top-three finish in MVP voting.

While I don’t think Atkins and his team will shy away from a big-money long-term deal for the right player, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re looking for potential candidates that could give them similar levels of bargain-rate production. Using Semien this past season as an example, he didn’t come cheap at 18 million, but he far, far outproduced his salary in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value that he brought to the Blue Jays.

I’ve talked about some buy-low candidates before, but today I’d like to focus more on players that I think could far exceed their projected free agent value. I feel like the Blue Jays are always on the hunt for that type of player, and have many that fit the description on the current roster. As they balance their immediate and long-term needs, I’m sure it’s still a central idea in their offseason plans.

An unconventional “bargain”

In many cases, when I’m talking about a bargain situation with a potential free agent it usually means that it’s a short-term deal, and often a one-year contract. However, there’s one player on this year’s market that I think could be a bargain on a multi-year pact, and I fully expect the Blue Jays to be involved.

That player would be former Colorado Rockies starter Jon Gray, who will hit the open market having just turned 30 years old earlier this month. MLBtraderumors.com has the right-hander projected for a 4-year, 56 million dollar contract with his next team, and he strikes me as someone who could provide a lot of value on a mid-range contract like that.

While a matching career and 2021 ERA of 4.59 doesn’t jump off the page, we also have to take that with a grain of salt while remembering that he’s had to pitch in Colorado throughout his career. Scouts love his mid-upper nineties fastball, and it’s not hard to find folks who are talking about how much better he’ll be when he signs somewhere else. With the presence of Pete Walker in Toronto, who has a knack for getting the most out of starting pitchers who haven’t yet reached their potential, it’s a tantalizing idea to think about.

The hesitation with banking on someone like Gray is that there are so many other potential options available on this year’s market, and several are a lot more proven. For a team like the Blue Jays that are entering into an obvious win-now phase, spending their money on more of a “sure thing” might be a more desirable play here.

That said, I’m not sure there are many pitchers with his upside that could be available for 14-15 million per season, at least not on the free agent market. If Gray turns out to be as good as so many believe that he’ll be, it could be the kind of sneaky signing that makes or breaks a season. After all, the Jays only missed the playoffs by one game in 2021.

How do you replace Semien if he leaves?

There are so many different ways the Blue Jays’ offseason could work out, and it’s hard to wrap your head around how one move will set off dominoes in other directions. One of the most significant will be the status of Marcus Semien.

While I’m confident that the Blue Jays will make some sort of effort to retain their star second baseman, it wouldn’t shock me if they were outbid by another team in need of a premium middle infielder. It’s a deep market of star shortstops, but it sounds like the list of interested teams will be much longer, and Semien will be highly coveted.

My knee-jerk reaction to the idea of Semien leaving is to think about the trade market. That could produce potential All-Star level options like Jose Ramirez in Cleveland, Matt Chapman from the A’s, or maybe even Ketel Marte from the Diamondbacks if the Blue Jays are really preparing to pay big. The flexibility of both Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal means the Jays can look at both second and third baseman if they need to find a replacement for Semien.

However, why not look at another shortstop? And if they are prepared to pay big to keep Semien, would they pay a little bit less for a younger but comparable player like Trevor Story?

The more I look at this year’s crop of free agent infielders, the more I feel like Story is a bit of a forgotten man in terms of the top of the market. That’s somewhat understandable when you consider that Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, and Semien are also free agents, but there’s no reason to undersell what the 29 year old has done as a big leaguer. Yes, his numbers are inflated a bit because he’s played his home games at Coors Field as a member of the Colorado Rockies, but he’s still a premium hitter.

MLBTR has Story slated to receive a contract of six years and 126 million, while they’ve predicted six years and 138 million for Semien. The difference is an AAV of 21 million for Story vs. 23 million for Semien, but again, there’s a two-year age gap in favour of Story here.

For what it’s worth, I don’t know that I see the Blue Jays getting into the market for Story unless they really see an opportunity that they like. That said, I can’t help but wonder if that opportunity is about to present itself this offseason, and I’m very curious if they’re even considering it as an option. Depending on how things shake out this winter, Story could end up being the best “value” over the life of the next contracts for this year’s free agent crop.

A sneaky-good way to improve the bullpen

It’s not exactly a secret that the Blue Jays will be looking to improve their bullpen this offseason, even after the acquisitions of Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber, who thankfully will both return in 2022. I can’t imagine that’s going to be enough to satisfy the front office or the coaching staff though.

In an ideal world the Blue Jays would be able to find someone who is a capable set-up man for Jordan Romano, and hopefully they’d be capable of the occasional save opportunity as well. Romano could shift into a set-up role if the right veteran were acquired, like a Craig Kimbrel from the White Sox (who may be available on the trade market), or if they signed someone like Kenley Jansen. However, I’d be much more interested in chatting with an old organizational friend in Kendall Graveman, who the Jays selected in the 8th round of the 2013 MLB draft.

Graveman was absolutely lights out as the closer for the Seattle Mariners last season, and then they inexplicably dealt him to the Astros where he didn’t fare quite as a well in a set-up role. I’m not sure that the role he serves in matters, like some folks would tell you that it does for a guy like Craig Kimbrel, but I do know that Graveman is a valuable reliever either way.

MLBTR has predicted three years and 27 million for the right-hander, and that could be a bargain for a pitcher like him based on market rates for late-inning relievers these days. I’m not sure that I’d bet on him getting three years either, so if there’s a chance to sign him for two or even three years at less than 10 million per season, I have to think the Blue Jays are interested.

The presence of guys like Romano, Tim Mayza, Cimber, and even wild cards like Julian Merryweather and Nate Pearson make for a promising bullpen for the Blue Jays in 2022 and beyond. However, a known commodity like Graveman might go a long way toward shoring things up, and could provide a ton of value at a pretty reasonable rate.

How do you replace an ace?

Like many Blue Jays fans, I’ve spent far too much time thinking about how this team can replace Marcus Semien, but I’ve also done the same for Robbie Ray. If the hard-throwing southpaw signs elsewhere, how can the Jays replace someone like that?

There are a handful of starters who might be able to pitch at the same level and could agree to a similar contract, such as Kevin Gausman. That said, I believe there’s a way for the Blue Jays to get the high-end starting pitching they need without making a long-term commitment that could hamper their other plans. How do they do that? Convince Justin Verlander to sign in Toronto.

It sounds like a bit of a far-fetched idea, but I don’t know that it is anymore. Things change when the Blue Jays prove that they are a legitimate playoff contender, and I think they did exactly that over the last two seasons. Ownership has also shown more of a willingness to invest in the roster, and that’s been proven with big dollar contracts for guys like Hyun Jin Ryu in 2020, and last year for George Springer.

Verlander might be the best of both worlds, even if he comes with some risk. At 39 years old and coming off of Tommy John surgery, he doesn’t really fit the profile of a top-shelf free agent target. That said, the future Hall of Famer has to be viewed through a different lens, and I’m willing to bet there are plenty of teams that will offer him a significant one-year contract for 2021.

Will there be teams willing to go to two years, and just as important, would Verlander want a multi-year contract? Based on previous statements from Verlander, he’s mentioned a desire to pitch until he’s in his mid-forties, so I’m guessing that means he’ll be looking for more than just one season.

It’s a move that comes with some risk because of his age and recent injury history, but there’s a lot to like about the idea both in the short and long term. Signing Verlander would give the Blue Jays another ace-level performer to pair with Jose Berrios at the top of their rotation, and would really help make up for the loss of Ray if he leaves in free agency. In the longer term, Verlander would give the Blue Jays more flexibility than signing Ray would, who is likely looking for a 4-6 year contract. With a shorter deal for Verlander, it’s a lot more feasible for the Blue Jays to try to re-sign Berrios, as well as their other talented young hitters who will be free agents over the next few years.

As I mentioned before, I’m confident that Verlander will have plenty of suitors this offseason. However, I hope the Blue Jays are among them, and maybe George Springer can even put in a good word with his old teammate. There’s something special brewing with the Blue Jays these days, and it might be a great team for a veteran like Verlander to join.

So what will the Blue Jays do this offseason? As I mentioned before, one move could really set some dominoes off in other direction, so it’s a tough one to predict. That said, they have some options, and don’t be surprised if Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays are scouring the market for the next great deal that could outperform their contract.