Blue Jays: The argument for and against re-signing Robbie Ray

The Blue Jays are going to have plenty of competition if they want to re-sign Robbie Ray again after the southpaw pitched at a Cy Young level in 2021. The question is, just how far are they willing to go in order to bring him back?

The Jays received one of the best bargains in all of baseball this past season with their ace left-hander. Ray came to them during the 2020 stretch run from the Diamondbacks, and turned his nightmare season in Arizona around a fair bit with a fresh start. Something seemed to click between the Tennessee native and pitching coach Pete Walker, so he quickly agreed to return on a one-year, eight million dollar contract for the 2021 season.

Now that he’s back on the free agent market with a vastly improved resume, and one that might include an AL Cy Young award, it’s expected that Ray will be one of the most sought after starting pitchers, and with good reason. If there’s one thing that’s true for every team in baseball it’s that you can never have enough pitching, especially if you can find a top-shelf arm like Ray.

The Jays gave Ray a Qualifying Offer, so even in an absolute worst case he would receive a significant raise to approximately 18.4 million. There’s almost no way he’s going to accept that though, and depending on which projection you’re looking at, most are predicting he’ll easily exceed 100 million on his next deal.

Will the Blue Jays spend big to bring back their best pitcher in 2021? It’s not a simple question, so I thought I’d break down the argument for and against offering a huge contract to Mr. Tight Pants himself.

The argument for re-signing Robbie Ray

The Blue Jays have made it clear that they are big fans of Robbie Ray and would like to have him back, and I’m confident they’ll make a legitimate effort to do just that. With that in mind, let’s run down the reasons why the Jays should be ready to open their chequebook for the 30 year old fireballer.

Let’s begin with the Cy Young level performance he just put up in his first full season as a Blue Jay. He finished 13-7 and led the American League in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), starts (32), innings pitched (193.1), strikeouts (248), and ERA+ (154). He had long teased pitching coaches and scouts with his potential, but had never been able to harness his control enough to realize it fully. In 2021 that finally came together, and his Walk Percentage down to 6.7% from a high of 17.9% in 2020, and even 10.7% during his NL All-Star season in 2017.

In my mind, I believe that Ray’s transformation is legitimate, even if he may have just put up the best single season of his career. He might not meet the same numbers again, but I still think he can be a #1-2 level pitcher, and someone who can make a significance difference in the Blue Jays rotation. He’s also shown a tremendous commitment to his personal fitness, which bodes well as he enters his thirties and the back half of his career.

They’ve had a season and a half to work together, so I’m sure both parties know that the fits works well. Ray is a fan favourite among Blue Jays fans, and I imagine his adoring fan base will only continue to grow now that folks are able to return to the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

The Blue Jays also have a need at the top of their rotation, at least if they want to be the true World Series contenders that they hope to be. Jose Berrios gives them a top-shelf starter, but he’s only under contract for one more season at the moment, with no guarantee that he’ll return on a new deal. Alek Manoah had an incredible rookie season, but expecting him to immediately step in as a #2 might be a bit much to ask. Hyun Jin Ryu looks like his days as a borderline ace might be behind him, even if he should still find a way to make above-average contributions.

Bringing back Ray would take the unit from good to great, regardless of who they bring in to round out the back of the rotation now that Steven Matz is also a free agent. It’s a partnership that’s already proven to work very well, and even if it’s going to cost a lot more this time around, it’s a price tag that could turn out to be very worth paying.

The argument against re-signing Robbie Ray

I could talk your ears off all day about all the reasons why the Blue Jays should try to re-sign Robbie Ray, but I doubt that there are many of you who need convincing. As much as I hate to admit it, there’s an argument against handing a big contract to the southpaw.

To begin with, I’ve seen projections that measured anywhere from 100-138 million for Ray’s next contract. MLBTR has him slated for five years and 130 million, and it’s possible that his market could go up to that range. That’s a lot of money to commit to one player, and it comes with a fair bit of risk when you remember that he doesn’t have a long track record of elite production. It’s also a lot of money when you remember that the Jays also hope to re-sign Jose Berrios sometime before he becomes a free agent a year from now, and he may end up with a similar price tag when all is said and done.

Speaking of considering others when it comes to the budget, the Blue Jays will have some important decisions to make over the next few years, especially if they are successful in bringing back Ray and/or Marcus Semien. I’ve already mentioned that Berrios will be a free agent a year from now, and the same will happen for Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in two years. Looking ahead even further, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will be free agents after 2025 if the Jays can’t extend them ahead of time. With an AAV of 25 million committed to George Springer for five more years, 20 million per season for Ryu for two more, and various other commitments, they won’t be able to keep everybody.

So is Ray the one that the Blue Jays reluctantly let leave? Some folks will tell you that’s for the best, and I can understand where they’re coming from. That’s especially the case when I look at the rest of the free agent market that also includes premium veterans like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw, to name a few. I’m not sure if the Blue Jays have a real chance of signing any of that trio, but a big-dollar, short-term contract might work better for Atkins’ master plan than committing to five or even six years for Ray. We also know that the Blue Jays have long been fans of Kevin Gausman, who is also a free agent after an excellent season with the Giants.

As much as the Blue Jays would obviously love to have Robbie Ray back on a new contract, it’s not as easy as handing him a blank cheque. There are other premium pitchers available, other roster considerations to keep in mind, and reasons to question how real Ray’s transformation might be over the long-term. He’s also going to be very expensive, and allowing him to leave will bring an extra draft pick into the fold.

Still, it won’t be easy to see him go if he leaves for another team.