Blue Jays: The argument for and against re-signing Robbie Ray

The Blue Jays are going to have plenty of competition if they want to re-sign Robbie Ray again after the southpaw pitched at a Cy Young level in 2021. The question is, just how far are they willing to go in order to bring him back?

The Jays received one of the best bargains in all of baseball this past season with their ace left-hander. Ray came to them during the 2020 stretch run from the Diamondbacks, and turned his nightmare season in Arizona around a fair bit with a fresh start. Something seemed to click between the Tennessee native and pitching coach Pete Walker, so he quickly agreed to return on a one-year, eight million dollar contract for the 2021 season.

Now that he’s back on the free agent market with a vastly improved resume, and one that might include an AL Cy Young award, it’s expected that Ray will be one of the most sought after starting pitchers, and with good reason. If there’s one thing that’s true for every team in baseball it’s that you can never have enough pitching, especially if you can find a top-shelf arm like Ray.

The Jays gave Ray a Qualifying Offer, so even in an absolute worst case he would receive a significant raise to approximately 18.4 million. There’s almost no way he’s going to accept that though, and depending on which projection you’re looking at, most are predicting he’ll easily exceed 100 million on his next deal.

Will the Blue Jays spend big to bring back their best pitcher in 2021? It’s not a simple question, so I thought I’d break down the argument for and against offering a huge contract to Mr. Tight Pants himself.

The argument for re-signing Robbie Ray

The Blue Jays have made it clear that they are big fans of Robbie Ray and would like to have him back, and I’m confident they’ll make a legitimate effort to do just that. With that in mind, let’s run down the reasons why the Jays should be ready to open their chequebook for the 30 year old fireballer.

Let’s begin with the Cy Young level performance he just put up in his first full season as a Blue Jay. He finished 13-7 and led the American League in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), starts (32), innings pitched (193.1), strikeouts (248), and ERA+ (154). He had long teased pitching coaches and scouts with his potential, but had never been able to harness his control enough to realize it fully. In 2021 that finally came together, and his Walk Percentage down to 6.7% from a high of 17.9% in 2020, and even 10.7% during his NL All-Star season in 2017.

In my mind, I believe that Ray’s transformation is legitimate, even if he may have just put up the best single season of his career. He might not meet the same numbers again, but I still think he can be a #1-2 level pitcher, and someone who can make a significance difference in the Blue Jays rotation. He’s also shown a tremendous commitment to his personal fitness, which bodes well as he enters his thirties and the back half of his career.

They’ve had a season and a half to work together, so I’m sure both parties know that the fits works well. Ray is a fan favourite among Blue Jays fans, and I imagine his adoring fan base will only continue to grow now that folks are able to return to the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

The Blue Jays also have a need at the top of their rotation, at least if they want to be the true World Series contenders that they hope to be. Jose Berrios gives them a top-shelf starter, but he’s only under contract for one more season at the moment, with no guarantee that he’ll return on a new deal. Alek Manoah had an incredible rookie season, but expecting him to immediately step in as a #2 might be a bit much to ask. Hyun Jin Ryu looks like his days as a borderline ace might be behind him, even if he should still find a way to make above-average contributions.

Bringing back Ray would take the unit from good to great, regardless of who they bring in to round out the back of the rotation now that Steven Matz is also a free agent. It’s a partnership that’s already proven to work very well, and even if it’s going to cost a lot more this time around, it’s a price tag that could turn out to be very worth paying.

So, what are they going to do?

I often have readers comment and say things like, “you didn’t tell us what you think will happen!”, so I thought I’d wrap things up by making some predictions. Let me make it clear that I have no insider information on this situation, so this is purely my own speculation here.

I think he’ll be back.

I’m of the opinion that the Blue Jays will only re-sign one player between Ray and Semien, and I think they’ll make pitching the higher priority. I’d definitely have a different opinion if they had been able to extend Berrios by now, but since they haven’t, letting Ray leave means they run of the risk of having neither of them a year from now. Even with Alek Manoah’s emergence, that’s a tough gamble to make.

Before the last two months of the season, I predicted that the Jays would re-sign Ray on a four-year, 70 million dollar contract, but then he went off and took things to another level down the stretch. With the whole season in the rearview and a legitimate case for the Cy Young award on his resume, I think 100 million is now the floor, and I’m going to guess that Ray receives five years and 115 million to come back to the Blue Jays.

When you consider that Gerrit Cole makes 36 million from the Yankees, and others are pushing to earn 30 million or more per season, it’s possible the Blue Jays could get a bit of as “bargain” by re-signing Ray to a term like that, so long as he can keep up his premium output. They do run the risk that he could regress a bit, or even a lot, which is what will keep Ray from reaching for that same pay threshold.

It’s far from a guarantee that the popular lefty will be back with the Blue Jays in 2022, but I have a feeling that he’ll be the big free agent fish for Ross Atkins this offseason. With a team that came so close to making the playoffs, and one that feels like it’s on the cusp of greatness, it would be a shame to see a piece of the puzzle like Ray in another uniform. My guess is the Blue Jays will do what it takes to make sure that doesn’t happen.