An in-depth look at free agency predictions involving the Toronto Blue Jays

With the offseason in full swing, analysts and baseball sites across the league are starting to predict where they believe the top free agents are going to sign this winter. This includes the Blue Jays, as the Rogers owned organization and the front office appear ready to spend this offseason in order to improve the roster for next season and beyond, whether it be through trade or free agency.

Let’s take a look at some of the offseason free agency predictions involving the Blue Jays.

Starters

Robbie Ray

Prediction by: Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco at MLB Trade Rumours; Ken Davidoff at New York Post

Southpaw Robbie Ray produced one of the best seasons of his career with the Blue Jays in 2021, finishing with a 2.84 ERA through 32 starts. Ray saw an improvement in his command to the tune of a 2.4 BB/9 while also striking out 248 batters on his way to being named a finalist for the AL Cy Young. After taking a one-year deal with the Jays in the last offseason, Ray hits free agency in line for a big pay and the front office has already expressed interest in bringing him back to the club next season and beyond.

MLB Trade Rumours and Kevin Davidoff at the New York Post think a reunion is on the horizon and this would be great news for the Blue Jays if he can continue to pitch well. There is some risk that he won’t be able to live up to the Cy Young caliber season he put up in 2021 but the reward could go a long way with a full season of Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah also in the rotation next year. MLB Trade Rumours predicts Ray will be signing a five-year deal worth approximately $130 million.

Jon Gray

Prediction by: Ken Davidoff at New York Post

Drafted by the Colorado Rockies back in the first round of the 2013 MLB Draft, right-hander Jon Gray heads to free agency after turning down an extension from the Rockies worth approximately $35-40 million through three years. Through 151 starts, Gray sports a 4.59 ERA while pitching at home in the hitter-friendly confines Coors Field while striking out 849 batters at a 9.2 K/9 for his career.

Gray is a bit of a gamble signing, as his numbers cannot be entirely blamed on pitching at a hitter-friendly park for half a season, as his away numbers are still high at a 4.65 ERA through 412.2 innings. He could be a bounce-back candidate similar to the Ray signing last offseason and a year with Pete Walker could do wonders but there’s a slim chance Gray is looking for a short term deal, with three-four years potentially being to much of a risk if he can’t find a rhythm North of the border.

Kevin Gausman

Prediction by: Anthony Castrovince at MLB.com

After another great season with the San Francisco Giants, right-hander Kevin Gausman heads to free agency for the second consecutive campaign but will not be tied to a qualifying offer this winter. The Blue Jays went after Gausman last season with a three-year deal worth approximately $40 million but he returned to the Giants when he accepted the QO. For his career, Gausman sports a 4.02 ERA through 1177.1 innings of work but is coming off two seasons of sub 4.00 ERA baseball and was one of San Francisco’s top arms during his time in the Bay area. Anthony Castrovince at MLB.com predicts the Blue Jays could be interested in pursuing Gausman again this offseason.

If Ray does end up leaving the club this offseason, Gausman should be one of Blue Jays top interests considering he has been pitching well over the past two seasons even though he is in line for a greater contract than the one Ross Atkins and co. offered him last offseason. This deal likely doesn’t happen if Ray does return, as both contracts along with Hyun Jin Ryu’s $40 million owed over the next two seasons might not be feasible with a young core needing contract extensions in the near future.

Kyle Seager

Predictions by: Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumours

The top left-handed third baseman this offseason, Kyle Seager is a free agent after the Seattle Mariners decided not to pick up his club option. The Nort Carolina product has been one of the club’s top players over the past decade, owning a .251/.321/.442 with a .763 OPS through 5561 at-bats. While the power is still there, evident by his 35 home runs last season, Seager did see a dramatic drop in his slash line and posted one of the lowest OPS stats of his career.

For the Blue Jays, Seager checks off a few boxes:

• Left-handed power bat in the lineup
• Experienced third baseman
• Veteran leadership and experience

Depending on what the price tag will be, Seager heading to the Blue Jays makes sense but could be a contract to regret if he continues to post career-low slash lines. Adding a lefty-bat could provide some power at the top of the lineup but if he continues to trend downwards, the deal could turn sour very quickly.

Eduardo Escobar

Predictions by: Anthony Franco at MLB Trade Rumours and David Lesky at SB Nation

An eleven-year veteran of the Major Leagues, Eduardo Escobar heads to free agency in a class that does not boast an extensive amount of depth at third base. Behind Seager and Kris Bryant, Escobar will be one of the names clubs will consider for a solution at third base. The Venezuelan product spent last season split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, slashing .253/.314/.472 with 28 home runs and a .786 OPS.

Escobar could be a solid solution for the Jays as he has experience at both second and third base. If Marcus Semien does leave this offseason and the club wants to use an internal prospect for third, the switch hitter could be an improvement over Cavan Biggio up the middle with Bo Bichette.

This move makes sense if the clubs miss out on Seager or do not trade for Jose Ramirez or Matt Chapman but the club could save money by using Santiago Espinal at the hot corner and going after Ray or Kevin Gausman for the rotation. MLB Trade Rumours predicts a short-term two-year deal worth $20 million.

Kyle Schwarber

Prediction by: Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumours

After splitting time with Washington and Boston last season, power-hitter Kyle Schwarber heads to free agency not tied to a qualifying offer after being traded midseason. He boosted his status with a strong 2021 campaign where he slashed .266/.374/.554 with 32 home runs and a .928 OPS while splitting time in left field and between first base and the DH spot when he joined the Red Sox.

Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumours predicts Schwarber will land with the Blue Jays but I personally don’t see this happening. He does add value as being a potential DH that hits from the left-side but defensively creates an even more crowded outfield situation. Unless they trade someone from the core like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Randal Grichuk or consider him as a DH only, Schwarber to the Blue Jays might not be in the cards, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base as well.

Nick Castellanos

Prediction by: David Lesky at SBNation

One of the more peculiar names to be linked to the Blue Jays this offseason, Nick Castellanos had a great season with the Cincinnati Reds last year, smacking 34 home runs with a .939 OPS. For his career, the outfielder sports a .278/.329/.486 with a .814 OPS with 168 home runs with 594 RBI through 4109 at-bats.

The Reds gave Castellanos a qualifying offer this offseason so he will be tied to draft pick compensation for any club that signs him. Unless the front office trades Gurriel Jr. or Grichuk or converts the recent Silver Slugger winner to third base, a position he hasn’t played since 2016, the addition of Castellanos doesn’t really make sense for the club.