Blue Jays: Upside with injury risk? This market’s got it

A bit of a surprise on QO Sunday

As I reviewed the decisions that various teams made around their Qualifying Offer candidates, there weren’t a lot of surprises. No, I wasn’t shocked to see the Jays pass on giving Steven Matz that QO, and I believe it was the right decision.

That said, one announcement that did surprise me a bit was that Carlos Rodon will become a free agent without draft pick compensation tied to him. There had been rumours that the White Sox may not make the QO to the talented lefty, but I’m surprised that they ultimately chose not to. Perhaps they feared that after the way his 2021 campaign ended that he would accept the 18.4 million contract for one year, didn’t want to pay that much when they have other options, and Rodon comes with some injury risk.

When he was healthy in 2021 the southpaw did everything he could to prove his doubters wrong. The White Sox signed him to a bargain rate paying him just three million last season, but Rodon wanted to remain as a starting pitcher and the opportunity was available in Chicago when other teams were asking him to be a reliever. Not only did he prove that he still belongs in the rotation, he has now set up an argument that he’s one of the better left-handers in baseball when he’s right. He finished last season with a 13-5 record to go along with a 2.37 ERA, and a 0.957 WHIP over 24 starts that covered 132.2 innings.

Had Rodon finished the year strong and been able to avoid the shoulder fatigue that saw him get shut down late in the year, he could have been a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young award, and one of the top free agent starters available. As things stand now, there are enough question marks around his health that it wouldn’t even shock me if he signed another one year, “show me” contract to prove that he’s healthy, although at a substantial rate this time. He won’t be 29 until December, so if he wants to double down on betting on himself, he’s still young enough to do it.

I’m not sure that I see the Blue Jays as the team that swoops in to sign Rodon, but depending on how the market develops for starters, and for the former White Sox starter specifically, I wouldn’t rule it out either.