Blue Jays: Upside with injury risk? This market’s got it

If the Blue Jays are willing to gamble a bit this offseason, there could be plenty of value coming from free agents who also have a fair bit of injury risk.

In some ways I’m sure the front office will take a lesson or two from their 2021 season when injuries really hampered the bullpen. In particular, the Jays signed Kirby Yates to a potentially bargain rate of 5.5 million for last season, only to see him hit the Injured List during Spring Training and miss the entire season. Unfortunately the same happened to another high leverage reliever in David Phelps, and several other pitchers had injury issues to deal with, especially early in the season.

That said, if you safeguard injury risk with enough depth then you can afford to gamble a bit. Looking at the current starting rotation, I feel like the Jays need to secure at least one more reliable arm to join Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu. However, I believe that there is enough depth in the organization that the Jays could afford to make a calculated gamble, and the starting pitching market has a few options that could fit the bill.

My preferred path for the Blue Jays this offseason is to see them re-sign Robbie Ray to lock down the top four in their rotation, but failing that there are a few creative options the Blue Jays could pursue. Some of them come with a fair bit of risk, but the payoff makes them worth considering.

Another future HOFer with injury risk?

As if the Fantasy Baseball player in me didn’t love the idea of Kershaw being a free agent enough, he’s not the only future Hall of Famer on this list. No, I’m not talking about Max Scherzer either, although I’ll likely talk about how I hope the Blue Jays pursue him as well another day. This time I’m referring to a name that’s almost been forgotten in some circles, and that’s Justin Verlander.

Unlike Kershaw, Verlander was extended the Qualifying Offer by the Houston Astros, which comes as a bit of a surprise. I only say that because Verlander will be 39 before the start of next season, and he hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 24, 2020. After undergoing Tommy John surgery and sitting out for the 2021 campaign, he’ll hope to come back and pitch for another season or two in order to finish his career on his own terms.

While it’s not all that common to get excited about a 39 year old starting pitcher, Verlander is anything but common. During his last full season in 2019 he was outstanding while winning the AL Cy Young award and finishing with a league-leading 34 starts, 21 wins, 223.0 innings pitched, and a staggeringly low WHIP of 0.803. It won’t be easy for him to return to that type of form, but he doesn’t have to make it all the way back in order to be a tremendous asset for his next team in 2022.

It remains to be seen if Verlander will accept the QO or not, and it might come down to how badly he wants to stay in Houston. I’m sure winning will be foremost on the veteran’s mind before he decides on his next contract, and while Houston has long been a desirable location in that regard, they could be entering a different period. It sounds like they’ll remain aggressive with the goal of competing in 2022 and beyond, but they could very well lose Carlos Correa as a free agent this winter, and that’s just a year after George Springer left for Toronto.

If Verlander chooses not to return to Houston and hits the free agent market instead, I would be thrilled to see the Blue Jays pursuing him. It takes a lot to bet on a soon-to-be 39 year old coming off of Tommy John surgery, but Verlander has been that special throughout his career, and I wouldn’t bet against him.

A bit of a surprise on QO Sunday

As I reviewed the decisions that various teams made around their Qualifying Offer candidates, there weren’t a lot of surprises. No, I wasn’t shocked to see the Jays pass on giving Steven Matz that QO, and I believe it was the right decision.

That said, one announcement that did surprise me a bit was that Carlos Rodon will become a free agent without draft pick compensation tied to him. There had been rumours that the White Sox may not make the QO to the talented lefty, but I’m surprised that they ultimately chose not to. Perhaps they feared that after the way his 2021 campaign ended that he would accept the 18.4 million contract for one year, didn’t want to pay that much when they have other options, and Rodon comes with some injury risk.

When he was healthy in 2021 the southpaw did everything he could to prove his doubters wrong. The White Sox signed him to a bargain rate paying him just three million last season, but Rodon wanted to remain as a starting pitcher and the opportunity was available in Chicago when other teams were asking him to be a reliever. Not only did he prove that he still belongs in the rotation, he has now set up an argument that he’s one of the better left-handers in baseball when he’s right. He finished last season with a 13-5 record to go along with a 2.37 ERA, and a 0.957 WHIP over 24 starts that covered 132.2 innings.

Had Rodon finished the year strong and been able to avoid the shoulder fatigue that saw him get shut down late in the year, he could have been a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young award, and one of the top free agent starters available. As things stand now, there are enough question marks around his health that it wouldn’t even shock me if he signed another one year, “show me” contract to prove that he’s healthy, although at a substantial rate this time. He won’t be 29 until December, so if he wants to double down on betting on himself, he’s still young enough to do it.

I’m not sure that I see the Blue Jays as the team that swoops in to sign Rodon, but depending on how the market develops for starters, and for the former White Sox starter specifically, I wouldn’t rule it out either.

A true roll of the dice

There are other potential free agent starters that fit the “upside with injury risk” label, but I want to conclude things with an old friend of the Blue Jays in Noah Syndergaard.

If you’re a relatively new fan of the team and aren’t familiar with his name, start by learning how to pronounce and/or spell it. After that, mention it around a group of lifelong Blue Jays and you’re bound to see someone’s head explode. That’s because the Blue Jays traded Syndergaard to the Mets in a package that brought back R.A. Dickey ahead of the 2013 season, and the blockbuster didn’t exactly work out as planned. It was nowhere near as bad as many Jays fans seem to remember it, but Syndergaard did turn out to be a tremendous MLB pitcher.

The problem for the fireballer has always been whether or not he can stay on the mound long enough to capitalize on his special right arm. Like Verlander, Syndergaard was injured a while back and missed all of the 2020 season. We did see him make a brief return to the mound this fall, but that was only for two innings.

Still, there’s enough history of success and remaining upside that the Mets have reportedly given Syndergaard the Qualifying Offer as well. I mention him last among this group because I think he’s the least likely to be available, and that’s saying a lot when you look at the other names I’ve talked about. However, with both Kershaw and Rodon not receiving the QO, and Verlander near the end of his career at 39 years old, Syndergaard strikes me as the least likely to be available for bidding. In fact, if I were the agent for the 29 year old, I’d likely advise him to accept and focus on rebuilding value ahead of this winter when he could become a free agent again under better circumstances.

However, if Syndergaard decides to reject, it’s possible that the Blue Jays could have some level of interest. They can afford to gamble a little bit knowing that they have Berrios, Manoah, and hopefully a rejuvenated Ryu already in place, but I doubt they’re going to spend more than the QO rate to do it. If Syndergaard does reject the Mets’ offer, I’m sure he’ll be looking for more than 18.4 million, unless he’s just wanting to get out of New York in general.

As I mentioned earlier, my ultimate preference is still for the Blue Jays to retain Robbie Ray on a new multi-year deal. If that doesn’t work out, this year’s market has a lot of intriguing names among the starting pitching group. If Ross Atkins and company are willing to gamble a little bit, they might even find a jackpot.