Blue Jays: Three free agent pitchers to stay away from this offseason

This offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays head in with a few question marks in regards to how their lineup is going to shape up for the 2022 campaign.

Key players in Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Steven Matz are heading to the open market and there is no indication if the Blue Jays are going to be able to bring any of them back for next season and beyond. There have been contract discussions with Semien and Ray and some theories as to whether Matz will receive a qualifying offer from the club but because the World Series is still going on, the rumour mill hasn’t really kicked into high gear at this time.

That being said, if all three players were to leave or a mix of one/two players was to return, the Blue Jays should still be looking to improve the roster for next season after missing out on playoff/tie-breaker contention this past year by just one win.

They definitely need a few more arms in the bullpen with experience and potentially another starter if Ray or Matz does leave, as the internal options are a bit of a toss-up when it comes to carrying the torch these two players left behind.

The front office could also look to improve third base, a theory they explored at the trade deadline with Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez but were unsuccessful. The club does have Santiago Espinal and Kevin Smith who could fill in the position but there is no question that Ramirez would be an upgrade that could provide some more pop in the lineup that could bode well if Semien decides to head back out West.

While there are still a few questions that most likely won’t be answered for a least a few months, there are some pitchers heading to free agency that the club should avoid this offseason, whether it be due to performance or injury history.

Jon Gray – Starting Pitcher

Drafted by the Colorado Rockies in 2013, Jon Gray has spent his entire career at the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Through seven seasons, Gray has thrown to a 4.59 ERA with 849 strikeouts, 280 walks, and a 1.338 WHIP through 151 starts and 829.1 innings. His 2021 season was modest, pitching to a 4.59 ERA with 157 strikeouts through 29 starts and finishing with an 8.5 H/9 rate.

Playing at Coors Field is going to impact his numbers but even when he was on the road, Gray still got hit around, posting a career 4.65 ERA through 412.2 innings on the road. He actually has better numbers pitching at home, a 4.54 ERA through 416.2 innings, with better stats in regards to opponent’s batting average, OBS, SLG, and OPS when pitching in Colorado. Throw in that Gray has only pitched more than 150+ innings only three times in the past seven campaigns due to injury and being sent back to AAA due to performance, and the right-hander may be one pitcher that the Blue Jays should look to pass on.

Gray has already rejected a contract extension from the Rockies, looking for a multi-year deal that is sitting around the $10 million mark per season. This might make sense given his past history but there would be a considerable gamble to signing Gray, considering the “Coors Field” argument cannot be used as his away stats are actually worse than when he pitched at home.

The reason he ends up on this list more has to do with the fact that the Blue Jays should be looking to acquire players with a more established track record, considering the last time the club took a chance on a pitcher with alright stats was Tanner Roark, and we all know how that plan fared. Gray has also been on the IL four times in the past three seasons and just cannot seem to stay healthy, which is another reason to put him into the “no” column.

Unless he is willing to take a deal below $5 million and the Jays are ok with possibly moving him to the bullpen, Jon Gray is one pitcher the club should avoid looking at.

Corey Kluber – Starting Pitcher

With two Cy-Young awards to his name, right-hander Corey Kluber was one of the most feared hitters in the mid-2010’s when he was with the Cleveland Indians.

Kluber was an absolute machine, posting 18+ wins four times in his career while leading the league in terms of ERA in 2018 with a 2.25 ERA. For his career, the fourth-round pick of the Padres back in 2007 owns a 3.19 ERA with 1544 strikeouts, 326 walks, and a 1.100 WHIP through 1422.2 innings.

Fast forward to 2021 and Kluber’s career has taken a bit of a dramatic turn. The Stetson alum has struggled to stay healthy, making only 24 starts over the past three seasons. He spent this past campaign with the New York Yankees, appearing in only 16 games while pitching to a 3.83 ERA through just 80.0 innings, missing significant time with a shoulder strain.

While Kluber does have the pedigree and history as a veteran pitcher, the recent injury trend is something to be wary of as he turns 36 years old next season. The right-hander was dominant five to six years ago but the health issues have really derailed him from what he used to be and the risk combined with the amount of salary he would most likely require just does not make sense for the Blue Jays at this time.

His last deal with the Yankees was for $11 million and if he is looking for the same type of term, there is no way the Blue Jays should go anywhere near the former Cleveland ace. If he was willing to take a much lower deal, at least under $5 million, then the risk might outweigh the rewards to have him in the back end of the rotation but the risk will be there that he won’t be able to make 20+ starts for the club and could follow a Kirby Yates type deal where the potential is there but the injuries prevent any traction with the Blue Jays.