Blue Jays: I simulated the offseason four times- Here’s what happened

The Blue Jays have a lot of important decisions to make over the winter, and I thought it would be fun to run some simulations to see what could happen.

In order to do this I turned to the trusty Playstation 4 and fired up my copy of MLB the Show 21. I didn’t want the results to end up being too similar, so I ran four different types of simulations, and hopefully that will cover the wide variety of outcomes that we could see.

For the first two times around, I really let the game do all the work and just sat back as a spectator. I let the default rules of the game play out, including leaving the salary cap where it is. As a disclaimer for those who have never played the game, sometimes the salaries can be really out of whack in free agency. It is what it is, but it still works for the purposes of what we’re doing here.

For the third simulation I removed the salary cap altogether, and for a team with two high-priced players to try to re-sign, how important would that turn out to be? In reality the Blue Jays have the money to do what they want in the short term, but long-term deals this winter will likely only be balked at because of necessary future commitments they’ll pursue, such as with Jose Berrios in a year, Teoscar Hernandez in two years, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in four more.

For the fourth and final simulation, I took over in the GM seat myself. I have different ideas about what makes a team great than the MLB the Show computer brain, and I’d love to hear what you think of my squad in the comments section below.

With that, let’s have a look at the results of four different offseason simulations for the Blue Jays.

Offseason One- 1st Computer Simulation

I thought I would start with the outcome that I liked the least, and that turned out to be the first computer simulation I ran anyway.

On the positive side, the computer was able to re-sign Marcus Semien to a five-year, 107.5 million dollar deal. I didn’t go to check all of the terms of new contracts, and one of those cases was the re-signing of Corey Dickerson to return to the outfield/designated hitter mix. The virtual GM also shored up the back of the rotation by giving Steven Matz a new contract after his solid performance in 2021.

The biggest new addition to the roster was a bit of a surprise, as Chris Taylor joined the Jays after a six season run with the Dodgers. Taylor is an underrated and versatile talent, but I was confused about how he fit with the Blue Jays when they also kept Semien.

And that’s when I realized that the computer had traded Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

It’s one thing to trade a player like that, so long as the return package is worthwhile. In this case I’m not sure what happened, other than maybe the White Sox GM had some virtual blackmail on the table. Gurriel Jr. was traded to Chicago for 26 year old infielder Romy Gonzalez, who debuted with the White Sox in 2021, and a top pitching prospect in 20 year old Matthew Thompson. In reality, there’s no way the Blue Jays traded Gurriel Jr. unless it means they’re making the big league roster better with the deal.

Two other downsides to the first simulation were that Robbie Ray left for a five-year deal with the Rangers, and the Jays didn’t really do anything to improve their bullpen other than bringing back Joakim Soria. That left the pitching staff looking like this:

Rotation

1- Jose Berrios
2- Hyun Jin Ryu
3- Alek Manoah
4- Steven Matz
5- Thomas Hatch

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Tim Mayza
3- Adam Cimber
4- Trevor Richards
5- Joakim Soria
6- Ryan Borucki
7- Julian Merryweather
8- Ross Stripling/Nate Pearson

There’s a lot of upside among this group of arms, but after the inconsistent performance in 2021 it would be nice to see some fresh names on the list.

As for the lineup:

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Chris Taylor (LF)
7- Corey Dickerson (DH)
8- Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk (C)
9- Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal (3B)

Bench: Kirk, Espinal, Romy Gonzalez, Randal Grichuk

Needless to say, I think we can call the first simulation a bit of a disappointment.

Offseason Two- 2nd Computer Simulation

The second go-around for the computer simulation was a fair bit different than the first, and there were some positives and negatives for sure.

As for Semien and Ray? This time around they both remained in Toronto, and somehow the front office kept Matz in a Blue Jays uniform as well. They also added a pair of arms to the bullpen that could make a difference, which gave the pitching staff a look like this:

Rotation

1- Robbie Ray
2- Jose Berrios
3- Hyun Jin Ryu
4- Alek Manoah
5- Steven Matz

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Kirby Yates*
3- Tim Mayza
4- Adam Cimber
5- Trevor Richards
6- Ryan Borucki
7- Andrew Heaney*
8- Ross Stripling

The virtual GM decided to give Kirby Yates one more chance to prove he can get healthy and contribute to a big league bullpen, and hopefully it works out better this time for the Jays. They also brought Andrew Heaney into the fold, who could help lengthen the bullpen and also give Charlie Montoyo another option for the back of the rotation if the need should arise.

The Lineup

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
6- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (DH)
7- Cavan Biggio (3B)
8- Randal Grichuk (RF)
9- Danny Jansen (C)

Bench: Reese McGuire, Santiago Espinal, Delino DeShields, Alex Dickerson

This second simulation is really quite close to what the Blue Jays had on the roster at the end of this season. The only additions to the position player side would be DeShields and Dickerson, who add some depth in the outfield.

As great as it would be to bring back all three of Ray, Semien, and Matz, I feel like the Jays need to add more than Heaney and another roll of the dice in the bullpen. Still, it would be an interesting timeline to follow if it were reality.

Offseason Three- No Salary Cap

As much as I hoped that taking away the salary cap would make a massive difference for the Blue Jays, it wasn’t all that different in this simulation. There were some differences from the other times I went through the simulation, but money really wasn’t the reason.

As he had the first two times, Marcus Semien returned to the Blue Jays and this time on a 6-year deal. That’s likely a longer term than we’ll see the Jays offer this winter, but in a No Cap scenario it makes sense. As for Robbie Ray, he left again, and this time for a return to the Diamondbacks. Matz was re-signed to help make up for the loss, but losing Ray looked like a big blow.

That is, until the computer signed Max Scherzer to a two-year, 38 million dollar pact.

I can’t imagine that Scherzer will actually end up in Toronto (especially on that term), but it was fun to see the roster with his name on it even if it was just in a simulation.

I also liked what the No Cap simulation provided in terms of bullpen moves. This simulation gave Kirby Yates another contract as well, but it also signed Daniel Hudson to boost the late-inning group. That gave the pitching staff a look like this:

Rotation

1- Max Scherzer
2- Jose Berrios
3- Hyun Jin Ryu
4- Alek Manoah
5- Steven Matz

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Daniel Hudson
3- Tim Mayza
4- Kirby Yates
5- Adam Cimber
6- Trevor Richards
7- Ryan Borucki
8- Ross Stripling
*- Nate Pearson

As exciting as that group looks, the lineup also remained strong in this simulation with the return of Semien. Corey Dickerson also re-signed as well, and the lineup looked like this:

Lineup

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (DH)
7- Corey Dickerson (LF)
8- Danny Jansen (C)
9- Cavan Biggio (3B)

Bench: Alejandro Kirk, Santiago Espinal, Randal Grichuk, Breyvic Valera

What’s interesting about the way this simulation played out is that it’s arguably the most financially responsible. Signing Scherzer to a two-year deal as opposed to handing five or six years to Ray gives the front office more freedom in the future, and that could be something they consider in reality.