Blue Jays: I simulated the offseason four times- Here’s what happened

Offseason One- 1st Computer Simulation

I thought I would start with the outcome that I liked the least, and that turned out to be the first computer simulation I ran anyway.

On the positive side, the computer was able to re-sign Marcus Semien to a five-year, 107.5 million dollar deal. I didn’t go to check all of the terms of new contracts, and one of those cases was the re-signing of Corey Dickerson to return to the outfield/designated hitter mix. The virtual GM also shored up the back of the rotation by giving Steven Matz a new contract after his solid performance in 2021.

The biggest new addition to the roster was a bit of a surprise, as Chris Taylor joined the Jays after a six season run with the Dodgers. Taylor is an underrated and versatile talent, but I was confused about how he fit with the Blue Jays when they also kept Semien.

And that’s when I realized that the computer had traded Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

It’s one thing to trade a player like that, so long as the return package is worthwhile. In this case I’m not sure what happened, other than maybe the White Sox GM had some virtual blackmail on the table. Gurriel Jr. was traded to Chicago for 26 year old infielder Romy Gonzalez, who debuted with the White Sox in 2021, and a top pitching prospect in 20 year old Matthew Thompson. In reality, there’s no way the Blue Jays traded Gurriel Jr. unless it means they’re making the big league roster better with the deal.

Two other downsides to the first simulation were that Robbie Ray left for a five-year deal with the Rangers, and the Jays didn’t really do anything to improve their bullpen other than bringing back Joakim Soria. That left the pitching staff looking like this:

Rotation

1- Jose Berrios
2- Hyun Jin Ryu
3- Alek Manoah
4- Steven Matz
5- Thomas Hatch

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Tim Mayza
3- Adam Cimber
4- Trevor Richards
5- Joakim Soria
6- Ryan Borucki
7- Julian Merryweather
8- Ross Stripling/Nate Pearson

There’s a lot of upside among this group of arms, but after the inconsistent performance in 2021 it would be nice to see some fresh names on the list.

As for the lineup:

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Chris Taylor (LF)
7- Corey Dickerson (DH)
8- Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk (C)
9- Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal (3B)

Bench: Kirk, Espinal, Romy Gonzalez, Randal Grichuk

Needless to say, I think we can call the first simulation a bit of a disappointment.

Offseason Two- 2nd Computer Simulation

The second go-around for the computer simulation was a fair bit different than the first, and there were some positives and negatives for sure.

As for Semien and Ray? This time around they both remained in Toronto, and somehow the front office kept Matz in a Blue Jays uniform as well. They also added a pair of arms to the bullpen that could make a difference, which gave the pitching staff a look like this:

Rotation

1- Robbie Ray
2- Jose Berrios
3- Hyun Jin Ryu
4- Alek Manoah
5- Steven Matz

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Kirby Yates*
3- Tim Mayza
4- Adam Cimber
5- Trevor Richards
6- Ryan Borucki
7- Andrew Heaney*
8- Ross Stripling

The virtual GM decided to give Kirby Yates one more chance to prove he can get healthy and contribute to a big league bullpen, and hopefully it works out better this time for the Jays. They also brought Andrew Heaney into the fold, who could help lengthen the bullpen and also give Charlie Montoyo another option for the back of the rotation if the need should arise.

The Lineup

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
6- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (DH)
7- Cavan Biggio (3B)
8- Randal Grichuk (RF)
9- Danny Jansen (C)

Bench: Reese McGuire, Santiago Espinal, Delino DeShields, Alex Dickerson

This second simulation is really quite close to what the Blue Jays had on the roster at the end of this season. The only additions to the position player side would be DeShields and Dickerson, who add some depth in the outfield.

As great as it would be to bring back all three of Ray, Semien, and Matz, I feel like the Jays need to add more than Heaney and another roll of the dice in the bullpen. Still, it would be an interesting timeline to follow if it were reality.

Offseason Three- No Salary Cap

As much as I hoped that taking away the salary cap would make a massive difference for the Blue Jays, it wasn’t all that different in this simulation. There were some differences from the other times I went through the simulation, but money really wasn’t the reason.

As he had the first two times, Marcus Semien returned to the Blue Jays and this time on a 6-year deal. That’s likely a longer term than we’ll see the Jays offer this winter, but in a No Cap scenario it makes sense. As for Robbie Ray, he left again, and this time for a return to the Diamondbacks. Matz was re-signed to help make up for the loss, but losing Ray looked like a big blow.

That is, until the computer signed Max Scherzer to a two-year, 38 million dollar pact.

I can’t imagine that Scherzer will actually end up in Toronto (especially on that term), but it was fun to see the roster with his name on it even if it was just in a simulation.

I also liked what the No Cap simulation provided in terms of bullpen moves. This simulation gave Kirby Yates another contract as well, but it also signed Daniel Hudson to boost the late-inning group. That gave the pitching staff a look like this:

Rotation

1- Max Scherzer
2- Jose Berrios
3- Hyun Jin Ryu
4- Alek Manoah
5- Steven Matz

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Daniel Hudson
3- Tim Mayza
4- Kirby Yates
5- Adam Cimber
6- Trevor Richards
7- Ryan Borucki
8- Ross Stripling
*- Nate Pearson

As exciting as that group looks, the lineup also remained strong in this simulation with the return of Semien. Corey Dickerson also re-signed as well, and the lineup looked like this:

Lineup

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Marcus Semien (2B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (DH)
7- Corey Dickerson (LF)
8- Danny Jansen (C)
9- Cavan Biggio (3B)

Bench: Alejandro Kirk, Santiago Espinal, Randal Grichuk, Breyvic Valera

What’s interesting about the way this simulation played out is that it’s arguably the most financially responsible. Signing Scherzer to a two-year deal as opposed to handing five or six years to Ray gives the front office more freedom in the future, and that could be something they consider in reality.

Offseason Four- Ran By Yours Truly

To give this whole exercise a bit of variety, I decided to handle things a little differently when I manually took over. I still made Qualifying Offers to Semien and Ray, but I decided to take a different approach this time around.

I started by letting Semien walk, which was hard to do without at least making a bid. That said, it turned out to be just fine, as he signed an eight-year, 248 million dollar contract with the Chicago White Sox for some reason. As I mentioned earlier in this article, sometimes the figures get a little out of touch with reality in The Show, and this is a pretty good example. In the end, it was probably a good thing that I didn’t bid on Semien.

I did make an aggressive offer on Robbie Ray though, and signed the left-handed to a five-year, 95 million dollar contract. If the Blue Jays could sign him at that rate in reality then I’m sure they’d jump on the chance, but I’m guessing his next contract will easily exceed 100 million. For the purposes of the video game, I kept Ray in a Blue Jays uniform and solidified the rotation.

Without Semien I had to find a way to fill an infield spot, and I went the route that many Blue Jays fans would like to see Ross Shapiro take this offseason, and that’s to call Cleveland about Jose Ramirez. It took a lot longer than I care to admit, mostly because I was too stubborn to trade Orelvis Martinez or Gabriel Moreno, but I managed to bring Ramirez into the fold for the steep cost of Alejandro Kirk, Jordan Groshans, and C.J, Van Eyk. That’s a big price to pay in prospect capital, but I think the Jays would do it in reality if it came down to it.

I made another reasonably big trade, and this time it was with the Milwaukee Brewers. I wanted to make sure I shored up the back of the bullpen, and to do that I acquired Devin Williams, who had a 2.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 54.0 innings for the Brewers in 2021. Not only can be serve as a valuable set-up man for Jordan Romano, but he comes with four years of contract control and won’t even be arbitration eligible for the first time until after the 2022 season. He was also the NL Rookie of the Year during the shortened 2021 campaign, and looks to have a very bright future ahead of him.

A guy like that doesn’t come cheap either, and this time I had to give up a package that included Otto Lopez (#5 Blue Jays prospect according to MLB.com), and Trent Palmer (#30). Giving up Lopez stings, but I managed to hang on to Orelvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno, and Miguel Hiraldo while wheeling and dealing, so I still call that a win.

To finish things off, I traded Randal Grichuk along with a computer-generated prospect to the Detroit Tigers for Matt Boyd, which was an offer I was a bit surprised to see get accepted. That said, the trade should allow Grichuk to get a chance to start full-time somewhere else, which was one of the points of making the swap. I also picked up Boyd to serve as the #5 starter, hoping that Pete Walker can work his magic. At the very least Boyd would push Nate Pearson to have to perform well enough to win a rotation job.

To replace Grichuk I signed Joc Pederson to take his spot as the extra outfielder and occasional DH. That left me with a lineup that looks like this:

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Jose Ramirez (3B)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Bo Bichette (SS)
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Joc Pederson (LF)
7- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (DH)
8- Danny Jansen (C)
9- Cavan Biggio (2B)

Bench: Santiago Espinal, Reese McGuire, Josh Palacios, Kevin Smith

I’ll readily admit that the bench still needs some work, but this was my fourth simulation and I was ready to let go of the finer details at this point. Bringing back someone like a Jarrod Dyson as a 5th outfielder could make a lot of sense, and they could always go with a 3-man bench when they wanted to expand the pitching staff.

Speaking of the pitching staff, here’s how things lined up when I was done tinkering:

Rotation

1- Robbie Ray
2- Jose Berrios
3- Hyun Jin Ryu
4- Alek Manoah
5- Matt Boyd/Nate Pearson

Bullpen

1- Jordan Romano
2- Devin Williams
3- Tim Mayza
4- Adam Cimber
5- Trevor Richards
6- Ryan Borucki
7- Julian Merryweather
8- Ross Stripling
*- Pearson?

That’s an outstanding pitching staff on paper, if I may say so, with the biggest question marks surrounding the health of Merryweather and Borucki. Depth would be a key element again, but the upside is very real in both the rotation and the bullpen. They could likely use at least one more reliable veteran, but Williams alone would make a huge impact, and the 2021 trades for Cimber and Richards will pay dividends next season as well.

I know it’s just a simulation, but I feel like the game plan that I’ve laid out here is actually pretty feasible. I’m not suggesting that the Blue Jays should assume they can acquire players like Ramirez and Williams, but I believe they have the trade chips to get those deals done, and without having to trade their untouchable prospects. I also stayed within a very reasonable budget, which should make ownership happy.

It’s going to be an extremely interesting offseason to be a Blue Jays fan, especially if the front office acts aggressively again as they have the last two winters. So far it appears like they’re operating like a team that’s very close to being a legit World Series contender, and that could lead to an exciting winter.