Blue Jays: What are the holes to address this offseason?

The offseason has begun for the Blue Jays, and Ross Atkins and company will likely have a busy winter. What are the holes that need to be addressed? That’s a pretty complicated question to answer at this stage.

We know that at least three pending free agents will be missed if they don’t return, and despite the fact that the 2021 Jays were as exciting as we’ve seen them in years, it was an imperfect roster. That fact will only be compounded if they can’t retain some of the players about to hit the open market.

Even if they can though, the Blue Jays still have to face the reality of the competition in the vaunted AL East. The 2021 campaign was a prime example, as the Jays had 91 wins and still finished in fourth place, and nine games behind the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays, and just one behind the Red Sox and Yankees who occupied the Wild Card spots with 92 wins.

Fortunately the Blue Jays have shown in recent years that payroll restrictions aren’t nearly the issue that they’ve been in the past, and they’ve proven that with big-money contracts for Hyun Jin Ryu (4 years, 80 million) in 2020, and George Springer (6 years, 150 million) last offseason. It remains to be seen if Ross Atkins and company plan to make that level of splash again in free agency, or if they may look to swing another big trade like the one they pulled off in July to acquire Jose Berrios.

There are a lot of questions that need to be answered over the winter, and it probably starts with identifying the holes that need to be filled.

Second base

The most obvious solution to round out the keystone would be to try and re-sign Marcus Semien. The 31 year old was even better than advertised for the Blue Jays in 2021, finishing with a MLB record for home runs for a second baseman, and slashing .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs, 39 doubles, 102 RBI, and 15 stolen bases.

Not only was Semien a premium contributor with the bat, his defensive presence was a tremendous factor for the Jays last season, both for his own work and also for the influence he had on Bo Bichette. That veteran tutelage was clear as Bichette was asked about Semien at the last post-game conference of the season, and I’m sure the 23 year old star would like to have his middle-infield mate back.

That said, Semien is going to be paid a lot more than the one year and 18 million he received last offseason. My expectation is that he’ll be looking for a 4-5 year deal, and there’s a very good chance that he’ll exceed 100 million. The Blue Jays may decide that’s too rich for their blood, or that they prefer to spend that kind of money on retaining Robbie Ray, or possibly trying to extend Berrios or other future free agents like Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Teoscar Hernandez. There’s definitely a solid argument for bringing back Semien regardless, especially after Austin Martin was included in the package that went back to Minnesota to acquire Berrios.

If they can’t bring Semien back then the Blue Jays will very likely be in the market for another infielder. Hopefully Cavan Biggio will be healthy and back to his old form in 2022, and Santiago Espinal showed that he’s capable of receiving a fair bit of playing time at third, but losing Semien would be a big blow to the production from this group. One way or another, I expect the Blue Jays to address second base, whether Semien stays or not.

Third base

I already alluded to this in the previous slide, but it’s very possible that the Blue Jays look for a new third baseman over the winter.

This may not be the highest priority on Ross Atkins’ list as he begins the offseason work, but it’s something to keep in mind for sure. The biggest key will be whether or not Semien returns to fill second base, especially because that’s a job that both Biggio and/or Espinal could do if Charlie Montoyo wanted to shift them over. That likely makes sense if they wanted Biggio to start full-time, and Espinal can likely play anywhere and still be an asset with the glove.

If the Jays don’t retain Semien then they’re going to be looking for ways to make up for (some of) his offensive production, and it might be easier to find a new face to play the hot corner. Perhaps that’s a guy like Kyle Seager, who could be a free agent this winter, or maybe a higher profile name like a Kris Bryant. It’s also entirely possible that they could re-engage with Cleveland and ask about a star like Jose Ramirez.

The nice part of the equation is that the Blue Jays have so much depth in their lineup on offence that they can likely get away with starting Espinal on a full-time basis. To be fair, he’s not exactly a slouch with the bat either even if defence is his calling card, as he slashed .311/.376/.405 and earned 2.5 bWAR over just 92 games and 222 at-bats. That said, it’s probably not realistic to expect a repeat of that level of production either, and Espinal may be best-served as more of a utility player.

Second and third base are likely very much tied together for the Blue Jays this offseason, and it all starts with whether or not Semien comes back. If he doesn’t, that opens the door for all kinds of other options.

Bullpen

Last but not least is the most obvious area that the Blue Jays will need to improve over the winter: the bullpen.

If not for a leaky bullpen in 2021, I think there’s a solid argument that the Jays could have challenged the Rays for the AL East crown. That sounds pretty drastic when we’re talking about a nine game difference in the standings, but there was a point in the season when the Blue Jays’ bullpen was as bad as any unit in baseball.

They were badly compromised by injuries throughout the year, especially losing Kirby Yates and David Phelps for the season before April had even come to a close. Julian Merryweather looked like he was ready to step up and flourish in a late-inning role, and then he hit the IL and stayed there until the last few weeks of the regular season.

In all I believe that the Blue Jays will have a solid foundation in their bullpen, but there’s a pretty clear need to add to the stables. As far as arms under control at the moment, the list includes Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza, Trevor Richards, Ryan Borucki, Julian Merryweather, and more, and some better luck in the health department is certainly possible and even likely.

That said, after the bullpen proved to be the Achilles heel all too often for the Blue Jays in 2021, it would be foolish of the front office not to address it. I’m willing to bet they’ll add another capable arm to the back of the bullpen to help Romano and Mayza finish off games, and just as important, I’m sure the brain trust will focus on bringing in as much quality depth as possible too.

The bullpen has become increasingly important in recent years, and the Blue Jays were a prime example of that in 2021. In my mind, it’s the biggest priority of the winter outside of trying to retain Ray and Semien, so don’t be surprised to see a significant investment in this department.