Blue Jays: What are the holes to address this offseason?

The offseason has begun for the Blue Jays, and Ross Atkins and company will likely have a busy winter. What are the holes that need to be addressed? That’s a pretty complicated question to answer at this stage.

We know that at least three pending free agents will be missed if they don’t return, and despite the fact that the 2021 Jays were as exciting as we’ve seen them in years, it was an imperfect roster. That fact will only be compounded if they can’t retain some of the players about to hit the open market.

Even if they can though, the Blue Jays still have to face the reality of the competition in the vaunted AL East. The 2021 campaign was a prime example, as the Jays had 91 wins and still finished in fourth place, and nine games behind the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays, and just one behind the Red Sox and Yankees who occupied the Wild Card spots with 92 wins.

Fortunately the Blue Jays have shown in recent years that payroll restrictions aren’t nearly the issue that they’ve been in the past, and they’ve proven that with big-money contracts for Hyun Jin Ryu (4 years, 80 million) in 2020, and George Springer (6 years, 150 million) last offseason. It remains to be seen if Ross Atkins and company plan to make that level of splash again in free agency, or if they may look to swing another big trade like the one they pulled off in July to acquire Jose Berrios.

There are a lot of questions that need to be answered over the winter, and it probably starts with identifying the holes that need to be filled.

Second base

The most obvious solution to round out the keystone would be to try and re-sign Marcus Semien. The 31 year old was even better than advertised for the Blue Jays in 2021, finishing with a MLB record for home runs for a second baseman, and slashing .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs, 39 doubles, 102 RBI, and 15 stolen bases.

Not only was Semien a premium contributor with the bat, his defensive presence was a tremendous factor for the Jays last season, both for his own work and also for the influence he had on Bo Bichette. That veteran tutelage was clear as Bichette was asked about Semien at the last post-game conference of the season, and I’m sure the 23 year old star would like to have his middle-infield mate back.

That said, Semien is going to be paid a lot more than the one year and 18 million he received last offseason. My expectation is that he’ll be looking for a 4-5 year deal, and there’s a very good chance that he’ll exceed 100 million. The Blue Jays may decide that’s too rich for their blood, or that they prefer to spend that kind of money on retaining Robbie Ray, or possibly trying to extend Berrios or other future free agents like Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Teoscar Hernandez. There’s definitely a solid argument for bringing back Semien regardless, especially after Austin Martin was included in the package that went back to Minnesota to acquire Berrios.

If they can’t bring Semien back then the Blue Jays will very likely be in the market for another infielder. Hopefully Cavan Biggio will be healthy and back to his old form in 2022, and Santiago Espinal showed that he’s capable of receiving a fair bit of playing time at third, but losing Semien would be a big blow to the production from this group. One way or another, I expect the Blue Jays to address second base, whether Semien stays or not.

Rotation

Just as the Blue Jays have questions about their free agents in the infield, the same goes for the rotation. They’ll have to compete with the rest of the league if they want to retain Robbie Ray, but they could also have plenty of competition to bring back Steven Matz as well.

There is all kinds of incentive to try and retain both of the talented southpaws, although that will be easier said than done. Ray went from signing a one-year, eight million dollar “show me” contract to being the leading contender for the AL Cy Young award. Chances are he’ll end up with a nine-figure contract as a result, and I very much expect the Blue Jays to be among the most aggressive bidders.

Matz is a different case, as he’s hitting free agency for the first time after earning 5.2 million last year having arrived in a trade with the New York Mets. The 30 year old quietly put together a very nice season over 29 starts, finishing 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.334 WHIP across 150.2 innings, striking out 144.

In my mind, Matz may be a bit of a fallback plan if the Jays can’t or decide not to re-sign Ray. They still have some talent in the rotation, but it would certainly be a good idea to enter next season with strong depth. They had a fair bit of luck in that department in 2021, but you can’t count on that happening every season.

For the time being, the depth chart likely looks something like this without Ray and Matz in the fold:

1- Jose Berrios
2- Hyun Jin Ryu
3- Alek Manoah
4- Nate Pearson
5- Ross Stripling

6- Thomas Hatch
7- Anthony Kay, etc

Given Pearson’s frequent stops in the Injured List, it will be especially important to bring in another quality MLB arm to help protect the depth of the group, which could even push Stripling to a swing-man role. In my mind, that’s a best case scenario.

Bullpen

Last but not least is the most obvious area that the Blue Jays will need to improve over the winter: the bullpen.

If not for a leaky bullpen in 2021, I think there’s a solid argument that the Jays could have challenged the Rays for the AL East crown. That sounds pretty drastic when we’re talking about a nine game difference in the standings, but there was a point in the season when the Blue Jays’ bullpen was as bad as any unit in baseball.

They were badly compromised by injuries throughout the year, especially losing Kirby Yates and David Phelps for the season before April had even come to a close. Julian Merryweather looked like he was ready to step up and flourish in a late-inning role, and then he hit the IL and stayed there until the last few weeks of the regular season.

In all I believe that the Blue Jays will have a solid foundation in their bullpen, but there’s a pretty clear need to add to the stables. As far as arms under control at the moment, the list includes Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza, Trevor Richards, Ryan Borucki, Julian Merryweather, and more, and some better luck in the health department is certainly possible and even likely.

That said, after the bullpen proved to be the Achilles heel all too often for the Blue Jays in 2021, it would be foolish of the front office not to address it. I’m willing to bet they’ll add another capable arm to the back of the bullpen to help Romano and Mayza finish off games, and just as important, I’m sure the brain trust will focus on bringing in as much quality depth as possible too.

The bullpen has become increasingly important in recent years, and the Blue Jays were a prime example of that in 2021. In my mind, it’s the biggest priority of the winter outside of trying to retain Ray and Semien, so don’t be surprised to see a significant investment in this department.