Part 2: Comparing Alek Manoah’s rookie season to former Blue Jays pitchers

If the Blue Jays had an internal Rookie of the Year award, it would most likely have Alek Manoah’s name engraved on the trophy. After a strong start down in AAA to begin the season, the right-hander would be called up to the big league squad in late May and would finish the season with a 3.22 ERA through 20 starts and 111.2 innings, finishing the year with 40 walks, 127 strikeouts, and a 1.048 WHIP.

He was dynamite for the Blue Jays when the club was hit by the injury bug as well and became one of the club’s most dependable pitchers by the end of the season.

In part two in the series comparing Alek Manoah’s rookie numbers to former Blue Jays pitchers (part one can be found here), this crop of pitchers is more on the veteran side, featuring those who were staples during the early years in Blue Jays history as well as some pitchers who had a hand in securing the two World Series championship trophies for the club back in 1992 and 1993.

*In accordance with part one, a pitchers rookie season is defined as when he exceeded rookie limits according to Baseball Reference*

Juan Guzman

Rookie Season: 23 starts; 138.2 IP; 2.99 ERA; 123 strikeouts; 1.183 WHIP

Hailing from the Dominican Republic, Juan Guzman originally signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1985 as an amateur free agent but would be traded to the Blue Jays in 1987. The right-hander would make his debut with the Jays in 1991, pitching alongside a pretty stacked rotation featuring Todd Stottlemyre, Jimmy Key, and David Wells, adding to the firepower by throwing to an incredible 2.99 ERA through 138.2 innings, pitching 6.0+ or more innings 15 times during his rookie season. He would finish second in Rookie of the Year voting that year, losing out to Chuck Knoblauch on the Minnesota Twins while also starting one game in the ALCS, going 5.2 innings with two earned runs and two strikeouts with four walks but would be tagged with the loss.

Guzman would spend eight years with the organization, finishing with a 4.07 ERA and two championship rings with the 1992 and 1993 squads. He would be traded to the Baltimore Orioles in 1998 but would be out of baseball by the end of 2020.

Crunching the Numbers

Guzman has an edge over Manoah in quite a few categories, starting with games started (23 vs. 20), innings pitched (138.2 vs. 111.2), ERA (2.99 vs. 3.22), and HR/9 (0.4 vs. 1.0) but Manoah is ahead when it comes to strikeouts (127 vs. 123), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.183), H/9 (6.2 vs. 6.4), and BB/9 (3.2 vs. 4.3).

Both players had great rookie seasons for the Blue Jays, but Guzman does have the added pleasure of also playing postseason ball, with the club eventually losing in the ALCS to the Minnesota Twins, the eventual World Series Champions. Guzman also finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and while the verdict is still out on where Manoah will place, it might be within the top five but most likely not within the one or two spots given how late he started this year.

Pat Hentgen

Rookie Season: 28 games (2 starts); 50.1 IP; 5.36 ERA; 39 strikeouts; 1.609 WHIP

Drafted by the Blue Jays in the fifth round 1986 MLB Draft out of Fraser High School in Fraser, Michigan, Pat Hentgen sits high on quite a few different Blue Jays leaderboards after his 10-year stint with the organization. As a member of the Jays, Hentgen would finish with a 4.28 ERA through 1636.0 innings, striking out 1028 batters through 270 outings, 238 of which were starts.

After his incredible rookie season, part two of this series examines Alek Manoah’s stats compared to previous Blue Jays pitchers and legends alike.

The right-hander would exceed his rookie limits in 1992 but was a member of the bullpen at the time, appearing in 28 games (2 starts) with 32 walks, 39 strikeouts, and a 1.609 WHIP through 50.1 innings pitched. He wouldn’t hit his stride until next season, when he secured a more prominent position in the rotation, earning all-star nods in 1993, 1994, and 1997. He would be traded to the Cardinals in 2000 and would spend one season in St. Louis before spending three years with Baltimore and eventually finishing his career with the Blue Jays in 2004.

Crunching the Numbers

A comparison of the stats between Manoah and Hengten in regards to rookie season values would be a bit unfair, mostly because the current Blue Jays pitcher was a starter this year compared to Hentgen finding himself in the bullpen for most of his rookie campaign.

If we take a look at Hentgen’s 1993 season, his first full year in the rotation with 34 appearances in which 32 were starts, Manoah posts better numbers in terms of ERA (3.22 vs. 3.87), strikeouts 127 vs. 122), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.336), and H/9 (6.2 vs. 8.9) while Hentgen does best Manoah when it comes to BB/9 (3.1 vs. 3.2).

It should be noted that this Hentgen’s first full season as a starter saw him make the all-star game while finishing sixth in Cy-Young voting, earning his second World Series ring and pitching six innings with only one earned run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the 1993 World Series.

Dave Stieb

Rookie Season: 18 games started; 129.1 IP; 4.31 ERA; 52 strikeouts; 1.446 WHIP

A name that most Blue Jays fans were waiting for in this two-part series, Dave Stieb is arguably one of the best pitchers in franchise history and leads a number of different pitching categories after his 15-year stint with the organization. The right-hander would earn seven all-star appearances as a member of the Blue Jays and would earn a World Series ring with the club during the 1992 season even though shoulder injuries limited him to just nine starts.

He would spend the 1993 season with the Chicago White Sox before taking a four-year hiatus from the game, returning in 1998 to appear in 19 games for the Blue Jays, three of which were starts while also earning two saves on his way to a 4.83 ERA.

Drafted by the Jays in the fifth round of the 1978 MLB Draft, Stieb would make his debut in 1979 and would exceed his rookie limits during that season. He would make 18 starts for the club and would pitch to a 4.31 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 48 walks through 129.1 innings.

Considering how well Stieb pitched for the Blue Jays, he currently finds himself on the Level of Excellence and is widely regarded as the top pitcher in franchise history, an idea that is hotly contested for those who support Roy Halladay.

Crunching the Numbers

This comparison is one of the closest between Manoah and a former Blue Jays pitcher, considering both individuals are only separated by two games started in their rookie campaigns.

Manoah holds the edge with 20 starts compared to Stieb’s 18 but the Blue Jays legend does hold his own when it comes to innings pitched despite two fewer starts (129.1 vs. 111.2) as well as in HR/9 (0.8 vs. 1.0) but Manoah does boast better numbers in terms of ERA (3.22 vs. 4.31), strikeouts (127 vs. 52), H/9 (6.2 vs. 9.7), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.446), and BB/9 (3.2 vs. 3.3). One stat the Stieb does dominate over his counterpart is complete games, as the former right-hander had seven of them in his first season in the big leagues compared to Manoah’s zero. This most likely is due to the change in how pitchers were used back in the day compared to today’s day and age, but a stat that is impressive in comparison.

While I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Manoah is on the same trajectory as Stieb when it comes to future expectations, it is interesting to see how the right-hander stacks up compared to the Blue Jays legend, a sign of hopefully great things to come for Manoah and the Jays.