Part 2: Comparing Alek Manoah’s rookie season to former Blue Jays pitchers

If the Blue Jays had an internal Rookie of the Year award, it would most likely have Alek Manoah’s name engraved on the trophy. After a strong start down in AAA to begin the season, the right-hander would be called up to the big league squad in late May and would finish the season with a 3.22 ERA through 20 starts and 111.2 innings, finishing the year with 40 walks, 127 strikeouts, and a 1.048 WHIP.

He was dynamite for the Blue Jays when the club was hit by the injury bug as well and became one of the club’s most dependable pitchers by the end of the season.

In part two in the series comparing Alek Manoah’s rookie numbers to former Blue Jays pitchers (part one can be found here), this crop of pitchers is more on the veteran side, featuring those who were staples during the early years in Blue Jays history as well as some pitchers who had a hand in securing the two World Series championship trophies for the club back in 1992 and 1993.

*In accordance with part one, a pitchers rookie season is defined as when he exceeded rookie limits according to Baseball Reference*

Juan Guzman

Rookie Season: 23 starts; 138.2 IP; 2.99 ERA; 123 strikeouts; 1.183 WHIP

Hailing from the Dominican Republic, Juan Guzman originally signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1985 as an amateur free agent but would be traded to the Blue Jays in 1987. The right-hander would make his debut with the Jays in 1991, pitching alongside a pretty stacked rotation featuring Todd Stottlemyre, Jimmy Key, and David Wells, adding to the firepower by throwing to an incredible 2.99 ERA through 138.2 innings, pitching 6.0+ or more innings 15 times during his rookie season. He would finish second in Rookie of the Year voting that year, losing out to Chuck Knoblauch on the Minnesota Twins while also starting one game in the ALCS, going 5.2 innings with two earned runs and two strikeouts with four walks but would be tagged with the loss.

Guzman would spend eight years with the organization, finishing with a 4.07 ERA and two championship rings with the 1992 and 1993 squads. He would be traded to the Baltimore Orioles in 1998 but would be out of baseball by the end of 2020.

Crunching the Numbers

Guzman has an edge over Manoah in quite a few categories, starting with games started (23 vs. 20), innings pitched (138.2 vs. 111.2), ERA (2.99 vs. 3.22), and HR/9 (0.4 vs. 1.0) but Manoah is ahead when it comes to strikeouts (127 vs. 123), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.183), H/9 (6.2 vs. 6.4), and BB/9 (3.2 vs. 4.3).

Both players had great rookie seasons for the Blue Jays, but Guzman does have the added pleasure of also playing postseason ball, with the club eventually losing in the ALCS to the Minnesota Twins, the eventual World Series Champions. Guzman also finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and while the verdict is still out on where Manoah will place, it might be within the top five but most likely not within the one or two spots given how late he started this year.

Jimmy Key

Rookie Season: 63 games (zero starts); 62.0 IP; 4.65 ERA; 44 strikeouts; 1.645 WHIP

Another name fans will find high on the Blue Jays franchise leaderboards, Jimmy Key was a dominant force for the club during his nine years with the organization. As a Jay, Key would earn two all-star appearances and would finish second in Cy-Young voting in 1987, leading the league with his 2.76 ERA.

As a rookie in 1984, Key’s role was strictly in the bullpen, appearing in 63 games while striking out 44 batters through 62.0 innings pitched, earning 10 saves on the year. The southpaw would move into the rotation in 1985 and would be a major force as a starter throughout the late 1980s, eventually leaving the squad as a free agent for the New York Yankees in 1993 before finishing his career with the Baltimore Orioles, a two-year span that stretched the 1997 and 1998 seasons before he hung up his cleats for good due to injury.

Crunching the Numbers

Similar to the Manoah-Hentgen scenario in the previous slide, it is a bit tough to compare Manoah and Key rookie campaigns given the former Blue Jays pitcher was strictly in the bullpen in 1984.

If we take a look at Manoah compared to Key’s first season as a starter in 1985, Key edges out the 6’6″ Florida product when it comes to ERA (3.00 vs. 3.22). games started (32 vs. 20), innings pitched (212.2 vs. 111.2), HR/9 (0.9 vs. 1.0), and BB/9 (2.1 vs. 3.2) while also earning an all-star appearance. Manoah does best Key when it comes to strikeouts (127 vs. 85), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.119), and H/9 (6.2 vs. 8.0), as the fiery right-hander was able to generate more swings and misses compared to his counterpart.

Key finished his Major League career with a 3.51 ERA, an absurd number that one can only hope Manoah can stick around as he continues to pitch for the Blue Jays over the next 5-6 years.

Dave Stieb

Rookie Season: 18 games started; 129.1 IP; 4.31 ERA; 52 strikeouts; 1.446 WHIP

A name that most Blue Jays fans were waiting for in this two-part series, Dave Stieb is arguably one of the best pitchers in franchise history and leads a number of different pitching categories after his 15-year stint with the organization. The right-hander would earn seven all-star appearances as a member of the Blue Jays and would earn a World Series ring with the club during the 1992 season even though shoulder injuries limited him to just nine starts.

He would spend the 1993 season with the Chicago White Sox before taking a four-year hiatus from the game, returning in 1998 to appear in 19 games for the Blue Jays, three of which were starts while also earning two saves on his way to a 4.83 ERA.

Drafted by the Jays in the fifth round of the 1978 MLB Draft, Stieb would make his debut in 1979 and would exceed his rookie limits during that season. He would make 18 starts for the club and would pitch to a 4.31 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 48 walks through 129.1 innings.

Considering how well Stieb pitched for the Blue Jays, he currently finds himself on the Level of Excellence and is widely regarded as the top pitcher in franchise history, an idea that is hotly contested for those who support Roy Halladay.

Crunching the Numbers

This comparison is one of the closest between Manoah and a former Blue Jays pitcher, considering both individuals are only separated by two games started in their rookie campaigns.

Manoah holds the edge with 20 starts compared to Stieb’s 18 but the Blue Jays legend does hold his own when it comes to innings pitched despite two fewer starts (129.1 vs. 111.2) as well as in HR/9 (0.8 vs. 1.0) but Manoah does boast better numbers in terms of ERA (3.22 vs. 4.31), strikeouts (127 vs. 52), H/9 (6.2 vs. 9.7), WHIP (1.048 vs. 1.446), and BB/9 (3.2 vs. 3.3). One stat the Stieb does dominate over his counterpart is complete games, as the former right-hander had seven of them in his first season in the big leagues compared to Manoah’s zero. This most likely is due to the change in how pitchers were used back in the day compared to today’s day and age, but a stat that is impressive in comparison.

While I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Manoah is on the same trajectory as Stieb when it comes to future expectations, it is interesting to see how the right-hander stacks up compared to the Blue Jays legend, a sign of hopefully great things to come for Manoah and the Jays.