Blue Jays: Top 5 players most likely to be traded this offseason

The Blue Jays have some important decisions to make this offseason, and that could include looking to make a few significant trades. With that in mind, it’s never too early to think about what Ross Atkins and his front office team might do, or which Jays players could end up being traded.

I’d be willing to bet that the Blue Jays will dip into their prospect pool again if they do pursue a trade or two over the winter, and even after their big swap with the Twins in July there are still plenty of talented minor leaguers in the system. That said, I also expect that they’ll trade some their big league roster as well, both in pursuit of upgrades, and perhaps also with payroll considerations in mind.

2021 showed us just how tantalizingly close this team is to being a World Series contender, even if they found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture. In a normal season, 91 regular season wins would get them to the postseason, but unfortunately it was one game short of a Wild Card spot this year, and sadly only good for fourth in the ridiculously competitive AL East.

Hopefully the Jays will be able to re-sign Robbie Ray and/or Marcus Semien, and then focus on a handful of roster tweaks ahead of the 2022 campaign. What happens with their own pending free agents (or potential replacements) will factor heavily into what the Blue Jays may or may not do on the trade market, but I expect them to be involved either way.

With that in mind, allow me to explain which big leaguers I expect to be either traded or involved in rumours over the winter.

Dealing from a position of strength

We’ve heard about the Blue Jays’ catching depth for more than a year now, and the only receiver they’ve traded so far is Riley Adams in the ill-fated Brad Hand deal back in July. That said, I expect that the Blue Jays will make an impact trade this winter, and I believe it’ll involve a young catcher.

I’ve said this before, but I really believe that Alejandro Kirk is the most likely catcher to be traded, and I predict this offseason will be the time he is dealt. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of what I see from the big right-handed bat, and I’d even be okay with him seeing regular playing time as the designated hitter next season, but I think the Blue Jays will allocate their resources a little differently.

The reason I think Kirk is the one that will be traded is because I ultimately believe that Gabriel Moreno is the catcher of the future in Toronto. After an impressive MiLB campaign in 2021, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Moreno join the big league club by the All-Star break of next season, or possibly earlier.

As things stand the Blue Jays already have Kirk, Danny Jansen, and Reese McGuire on their big league depth chart. Kirk certainly has the most upside of the trio, but that also gives him the most trade value, especially at just 22 years old. He’s been ranked as a top 100 prospect before, and he showed once again in 2021 that he can add a threat to the lineup with his bat.

However, Kirk is still an unfinished product when it comes to his glove work, which is why I think the Blue Jays would lean toward using a guy like Jansen as a bridge to Moreno. Jansen actually hit pretty well after he came back from his injury struggles late this season, and he’s a significant upgrade on defence or what Kirk brings to the table. It’s possible that the Blue Jays shop Jansen this winter as well, but I don’t think he’d bring the same type of trade value that Kirk would.

We’ll see how the offseason plays out, and just how aggressive the Blue Jays get on the trade market over the winter, but don’t be surprised to hear Kirk’s name banded about on the rumour mill.

Make the deal before it’s too late?

For what it’s worth, I don’t expect the Blue Jays to trade Nate Pearson over the winter. My gut tells me that they still believe in his high-end potential, and it’ll be too much to give up on without allowing him at least one more chance to stick in the rotation in 2022.

However, there’s a solid argument to be made that the Jays should consider including him in trade discussions this offseason. He finally just lost his prospect status at the end of this season, but prior to that he had been a consistent figure on Top 100 prospect lists over the last few years. We did see him dropping on those lists more recently though, and that’s because the 25 year old is now getting to the age and the point where he has to prove his potential rather than the organization just dreaming on it.

Whether or not the Blue Jays are willing to trade him ultimately depends on how much faith they have in his potential, and more importantly, his ability to stay healthy. He lost some unfortunate time in 2021 with a misdiagnosis of sorts, but thankfully he was able to finish his season off on a high note by pitching out the bullpen down the stretch, and he flashed his potential in the process.

The argument for trading Pearson is trying to capitalize on whatever hype he still has from being a top 10 prospect. That star status has faded a bit as he’s battled injuries, but he still has the tools to be an elite pitcher and I’m sure there would be plenty of teams that would aggressively move to acquire him. More likely though, a trade would have to work in order to acquire a player that the Blue Jays are targeting. For example (and I’m NOT suggesting this will happen), it would make sense if Cleveland asked for Pearson as part of the return if the Jays were trying to acquire Jose Ramirez.

At the end of the day, I don’t think that the Blue Jays will let Pearson get away unless they have an opportunity to make an impact trade they can’t ignore. In my mind, we still haven’t seen what Pearson can do when he’s healthy for an extended stretch, and I’d really like to see him get into some sort of a groove. Even if he ultimately lands in the bullpen some day, his arm is so electric that he’ll find a way to make the Blue Jays better.

A forgotten man?

There were plenty of surprises for the Blue Jays in 2021, but the fact that Cavan Biggio was almost a non-factor qualifies as one of the most disappointing.

Last spring there were all kinds of debates going on about whether the Blue Jays should use Biggio or George Springer as the leadoff hitter in 2021. Springer obviously had the longer track record of success and had a considerable leg up, but the fact that it was even a question speaks to the value that Biggio brought to the table over his first two seasons. He wasn’t an All-Star calibre performer, but that on-base percentage with a bit of pop had plenty of upside.

Then came the 2021 campaign and it didn’t go as planned at all, in pretty much every way you could imagine. Biggio struggled with the transition to playing third base rather than his usual spot at second, and wasn’t exactly making up for it with the bat either. There’s little doubt that injuries contributed to his down season, and he was held to just 79 MLB games as a result. In all he slashed .224/.322/.356 with seven home runs, 10 doubles, and 27 RBI over 250 at-bats.

I’m confident that the Blue Jays can find an important role for Biggio in 2022 and give him the opportunity to bounce back with a healthy season. That said, it wouldn’t shock me if his name was banded about a bit in trade rumours as well. I’m not sure that would be wise since the Jays would be selling low on a player who looked like a part of the new core, but we don’t know how other teams value him at this stage either.

Of the players I’ve mentioned so far I would say that Biggio is the least likely to be traded. That said, it’s pretty clear that the Blue Jays have entered a “win-now” phase, so if the right deal comes along then I’m sure Atkins would consider it.

Let’s get this out of the way

A few months ago when I considered the same question of which Blue Jays could end up on the trade block, I would have included Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on that list. After the way he finished the 2021 campaign, I no longer believe there’s any chance he’ll be dealt.

As I looked at the rest of the MLB roster that should be coming back for next season, there were really only two more names I could come up with for number five, so I decided to take a different approach here. This time I’m saying these two players won’t be traded, even if you’ll see their names come up on social media over the offseason.

The first one is quick and dirty. A few days ago MLBTR released their arbitration projections and had Ross Stripling at 4.4 million. I saw several posts that read stuff like “may as well trade him” or even a couple fans that felt that was too much to pay. I can’t understand that line of thinking at all, and I can see an important role for Stripling next season. Whether that’s as a long-man in the bullpen, insurance for Nate Pearson, or even to make some spot starts to give Hyun Jin Ryu an occasional rest, Stripling’s versatility could easily prove worth his projected salary, and then some. If he ends up as a successful full-time member of the rotation, that could be a bargain.

Secondly, I want to throw water on the discussion that the Blue Jays should look to trade Hyun Jin Ryu. Yes, he had a disappointing end to the 2021 season and it looked like he tired out down the stretch. It doesn’t help that he’ll be 35 before Opening Day next year either, or that he still has two years and 40 million left on his contract. However, if you look at the big picture Ryu is still a valuable rotation piece, the Blue Jays just need to make sure they utilize him properly in 2022. I realize that’s not ideal, but I’m sure the Jays realized he wouldn’t be their ace forever.

As for the idea of trading him, the only motivation would be to save money and I’m not sure that matters much at all. They have the payroll space to retain guys like Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien if they want to, and Ryu only having two years left on his deal means they can easily manage that in the short term, especially before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette become really expensive.

Maybe the situation looks different a year from now, but at the moment I would say there’s less than a 5% chance that Ryu is dealt. That’s a number I’ve just pulled out of the air, but it should also illustrate that I just don’t think it’s going to happen, nor do I think anyone should hope for such a thing either. The Blue Jays can afford to pay Ryu, retain their free agents, and add more, it’s just a matter of if that jives with their long-term strategy.

As I said earlier, I believe that if the Blue Jays are going to end up as major players in the trade market, it likely means that they’ll turn to their prospects and younger players to pull it off. However, that doesn’t mean that the big league roster won’t be in play either, and don’t be surprised if the rumour mill is very busy over the winter. That’s always more fun anyway.