Toronto Blue Jays: Which star to prioritize re-signing first

Ideally the Blue Jays will be able to retain both Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, but if they can only have one, who should they prioritize?

That’s a question that the Blue Jays’ front office is going to be asking themselves over the next few weeks and maybe even months, and I’m sure they’ll be trying to get something done with both players before free agency officially opens. As their current team for the time being, the Blue Jays have the advantage of being able to make some offers now rather than having to wait until after the World Series.

However, the Jays are only going to have so much control over how each situation plays out, especially if Semien and/or Ray decide that they want to test free agency rather than agreeing to an extension. Other teams can’t officially contact the pending free agents, but just like in other sports, players know each other and reach out with informal ideas and information. That kinda thing may give both veterans an idea of what could be out there for them.

The other obstacle in the way for the Blue Jays is something we’ve talked about before here at Jays Journal, and that’s the sheer amount of star-level players this team may need to re-sign over the next few years. On top of Semien and Ray (Steven Matz was also a valuable contributor in 2021 and will also join them in free agency) the Jays have to think about a possible extension for Jose Berrios after the 2022 season, Teoscar Hernandez in 2023, and even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette after the 2025 campaign. With George Springer’s AAV of 25 million on the books along with two more years of Hyun Jin Ryu at 20 million, you can only retain so many high salaried players.

Having said all that, I’d like to make a case for the pair of stars that are hitting the market in the immediate future, and which one might be the more important player to bring back.

The case for Marcus Semien

The Blue Jays arguably received two of the best bargains in baseball in 2021 between Ray and Semien. Ray signed a one-year deal for just eight million and is likely the leading contender for the Cy Young award. As for Semien, he didn’t come quite as cheap at one year and 18 million, but he already had a 3rd place finish in MVP voting on his resume from 2019. A player like that would have received a big multi-year offer under normal circumstances, but last winter was anything but normal, especially after Semien wasn’t the same player during the shortened 60-game schedule in 2020.

The Blue Jays gamble paid off in a big way, as Semien not only finished among league leaders in most offensive categories, he set a new all-time standard for home runs in a single season by a second baseman with 45. As good as he was on the field, his impact on Bo Bichette’s career may have been almost as valuable, and that’s saying a lot.

Can the Blue Jays be the same team without Semien going forward? The short answer is no, even if there is still plenty of firepower left without him, and all kinds of room to grow for young stars like Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and more. That said, if Semien does end up in another jersey next season, it’s going to leave a pretty significant hole in the lineup.

Prior to this year’s trade deadline, my working expectation was that the Blue Jays were hoping that Austin Martin might be ready to take the second base job in 2022 after a full season of work in the minor leagues. That’s obviously not going to happen now that he was traded to Minnesota in the Berrios deal, and the internal options for second base are pretty underwhelming. The Jays could roll the dice that returning Cavan Biggio to his natural position would restore his offensive value, but that’s a fairly big gamble. The Blue Jays are obviously going to return Bichette to shortstop and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first base, and Santiago Espinal may have earned himself the third base gig for next season, but the infield will have plenty of questions if Semien is missing next spring.

Just as important as the hole he would leave in the lineup, the veteran’s presence would be sorely missed in the clubhouse as well. As I already mentioned, the model teammate was a huge influence on the young stars in the clubhouse, and it’s very clear that he’s well respected. That kind of leadership makes a huge difference, and it’s hard to measure just how significant it is.

It remains to be seen if the Blue Jays will be able to convince the 31 year old to come back and give up his shortstop position for good, but there’s no doubt that the organization has plenty of good reason to open up their chequebook to make it happen.

The case for Robbie Ray

The Blue Jays have had a lot of talent go through their starting rotation in recent years, but not since Roy Halladay in 2003 have they had a Cy Young winner, and Ray’s performance this season could snap that streak once the award is announced later this fall.

It was a pretty remarkable campaign for the hard-throwing southpaw, especially when you consider that he looked pretty lost the year before. While still with the Diamondbacks to season the 2019 season, Ray posted a 7.84 ERA over seven starts prior to being traded to the Blue Jays. Since then he’s been a different guy, and in 2021 he turned a corner that I don’t know many could have predicted. When all was said and done for the regular season, Ray led the American League in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, innings pitched, and bWAR.

Can the Blue Jays afford to let a guy like Ray get away? Ideally they’ll be able to keep him around to anchor what became arguably one of the best rotations in baseball this season. Hyun Jin Ryu had an up and down season, especially late in the year, but the Jays have to be over the moon thrilled with what they received from rookie Alek Manoah, and also from Steven Matz. Even Ross Stripling was pretty fantastic for a stretch as a starter as well prior to his own injury.

There will be some writers that will argue that the Jays could get by without Ray, and there’s a case to be made for that line of thinking. Next season their rotation will return Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, hopefully a finally healthy Nate Pearson, and Stripling is still under contract for another year. They’d likely need at least one more veteran to fill things out, especially to protect Pearson’s spot, but re-signing someone like Matz could be on the table, or perhaps pursuing one of the many veterans that could hit the market this winter.

Having said that, the Blue Jays missed the playoffs by one game this year, and it’s hard to argue that they’re going to get better while losing their best pitcher, even if there’s room for growth from the others. Ray’s career year paced this rotation, and it’s what pushed them from good to great. If the Blue Jays are serious about taking that next step then I think they have to bring Ray back, or at least do their best to replace him with a top-end arm if they can’t.

The knock on Ray is that this season may be the best we ever see from him as a big leaguer, and if that’s the case it’s pretty understandable. It’s hard to gauge where his value may land as a free agent, but with the elite production he showed in 2021, I think he’s pretty universally considered to be an ace-calibre starter. Having just turned 30 a few days ago, it’s also possible that we haven’t seen the best of Ray yet either.