Toronto Blue Jays: Which star to prioritize re-signing first

Ideally the Blue Jays will be able to retain both Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, but if they can only have one, who should they prioritize?

That’s a question that the Blue Jays’ front office is going to be asking themselves over the next few weeks and maybe even months, and I’m sure they’ll be trying to get something done with both players before free agency officially opens. As their current team for the time being, the Blue Jays have the advantage of being able to make some offers now rather than having to wait until after the World Series.

However, the Jays are only going to have so much control over how each situation plays out, especially if Semien and/or Ray decide that they want to test free agency rather than agreeing to an extension. Other teams can’t officially contact the pending free agents, but just like in other sports, players know each other and reach out with informal ideas and information. That kinda thing may give both veterans an idea of what could be out there for them.

The other obstacle in the way for the Blue Jays is something we’ve talked about before here at Jays Journal, and that’s the sheer amount of star-level players this team may need to re-sign over the next few years. On top of Semien and Ray (Steven Matz was also a valuable contributor in 2021 and will also join them in free agency) the Jays have to think about a possible extension for Jose Berrios after the 2022 season, Teoscar Hernandez in 2023, and even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette after the 2025 campaign. With George Springer’s AAV of 25 million on the books along with two more years of Hyun Jin Ryu at 20 million, you can only retain so many high salaried players.

Having said all that, I’d like to make a case for the pair of stars that are hitting the market in the immediate future, and which one might be the more important player to bring back.

The case for Marcus Semien

The Blue Jays arguably received two of the best bargains in baseball in 2021 between Ray and Semien. Ray signed a one-year deal for just eight million and is likely the leading contender for the Cy Young award. As for Semien, he didn’t come quite as cheap at one year and 18 million, but he already had a 3rd place finish in MVP voting on his resume from 2019. A player like that would have received a big multi-year offer under normal circumstances, but last winter was anything but normal, especially after Semien wasn’t the same player during the shortened 60-game schedule in 2020.

The Blue Jays gamble paid off in a big way, as Semien not only finished among league leaders in most offensive categories, he set a new all-time standard for home runs in a single season by a second baseman with 45. As good as he was on the field, his impact on Bo Bichette’s career may have been almost as valuable, and that’s saying a lot.

Can the Blue Jays be the same team without Semien going forward? The short answer is no, even if there is still plenty of firepower left without him, and all kinds of room to grow for young stars like Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and more. That said, if Semien does end up in another jersey next season, it’s going to leave a pretty significant hole in the lineup.

Prior to this year’s trade deadline, my working expectation was that the Blue Jays were hoping that Austin Martin might be ready to take the second base job in 2022 after a full season of work in the minor leagues. That’s obviously not going to happen now that he was traded to Minnesota in the Berrios deal, and the internal options for second base are pretty underwhelming. The Jays could roll the dice that returning Cavan Biggio to his natural position would restore his offensive value, but that’s a fairly big gamble. The Blue Jays are obviously going to return Bichette to shortstop and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first base, and Santiago Espinal may have earned himself the third base gig for next season, but the infield will have plenty of questions if Semien is missing next spring.

Just as important as the hole he would leave in the lineup, the veteran’s presence would be sorely missed in the clubhouse as well. As I already mentioned, the model teammate was a huge influence on the young stars in the clubhouse, and it’s very clear that he’s well respected. That kind of leadership makes a huge difference, and it’s hard to measure just how significant it is.

It remains to be seen if the Blue Jays will be able to convince the 31 year old to come back and give up his shortstop position for good, but there’s no doubt that the organization has plenty of good reason to open up their chequebook to make it happen.

So, what’s the verdict?

For me, if I had to choose between Semien and Ray it comes down to three questions. The first one we won’t know the answer to for a while, and that’s the cost of retaining each player. My guess is they won’t be that far apart though, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see one or both of them sign a long-term deal for more than 100 million before the year is over.

The second part is about future value, and that’s also pretty tough to predict. Semien likely gets the edge in that department because he’s had more than one season as a truly elite player. Ray had been an All-Star once before prior to coming to Toronto, but he had never pitched anywhere near the level we saw from him this season. That said, I’m a believer that he’s turned a corner as a Blue Jay and he’ll remain as a top-tier starter for at least the next few seasons as he enters his 30’s.

Lastly, the other factor that I would strongly consider would be the roster need. The more I think about this question, the more I come back to the old saying that you can never have too much pitching, and that takes Ray to the top of my projected free agent list for the Blue Jays.

Looking ahead, this team is going to have a ton of firepower in the lineup with or without Semien, including All-Stars like Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez, as well as emerging talents like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and even Santiago Espinal. There’s no doubt that they’re a better team with Semien also included, and they wouldn’t have sniffed the playoff race without him in 2022, but hopefully they can still be a dynamic offence either way.

As for the rotation? That’s where the future is a little more dicey. Ryu showed us late this season that at 34 years old, he may not be an “ace” anymore for the last two years of his deal, even if he can still be an above-average contributor. There is no guarantee that Berrios stays beyond the end of his contract that expires after next season, and relying on Nate Pearson to stay healthy is a pretty big “if”. In a worst case scenario, by 2023 you could be left with Manoah and a 36 year old Ryu on an expiring contract.

For what it’s worth, I’ll be thrilled if the Blue Jays can retain either of the two stars, and I’ll be over the moon if they both return. I do expect that it’ll likely come down to one or the other though, and if my life depended on it and I had to choose one, I’d have to go with Ray. It’s a lot more complex than that for the Blue Jays’ front office as they approach the offseason, but I’ll be very curious to see where their priorities are with these two players, as well as with the rest of the roster.