Blue Jays: Where does Teoscar Hernandez rank among AL outfielders?

Often overshadowed by his teammates, Teoscar Hernandez has put up some truly elite numbers for the Blue Jays in 2021. How does he rank among AL outfielders?

Despite missing some time early in the season with a stint on the Covid IL, Hernandez is among American League leaders in several offensive categories. He doesn’t always get the attention that he deserves because the presence of and MVP-level performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien, and others like Bo Bichette and George Springer get more headlines a lot of the time as well.

When you look at the numbers, Hernandez has been as important as any Blue Jay to their success in 2021. After a pair of hits last night including a mammoth home run to left-centre field, the Dominican-born slugger has hit 31 bombs along with 111 RBI, and he’s slashing .302/.352/.533. Despite playing in just 136 games thus far, his 111 RBI puts him third in the American League, and first among outfielders.

Speaking of outfielders, how many other outfielders are producing at or above Hernandez in 2021? Not surprisingly, it’s a pretty short list. In fact, I’d probably rate him as the fourth most valuable outfielder in the AL this season, and possibly even a candidate to receive some down-ballot MVP votes.

At the top of that list would likely be Cedric Mullins, the star Baltimore Orioles who has picked on the Blue Jays at times this year. Mullins leads AL outfielders in fWAR with 5.7 and bWAR with 6.2, and has posted a .300/.369/.536 slash line with 30 home runs, 36 doubles, and 30 stolen bases. The 26 year old has had a breakout season in 2021, and has been one of the few bright spots in Baltimore this year.

The second player on that list would be Aaron Judge of the Yankees, who has had another elite performance in 2021. He is second among AL outfielders in fWAR with 4.9, and also has a mark of 5.2 for bWAR. His .285/.371/533 slash line have been crucial in keeping the Yankees in the Wild Card race, and he’s posted 36 home runs and 90 RBI as well.

The only other outfielder that would rank above Hernandez as far as WAR goes would be Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros. Tucker has not only helped lessen the pain of the Astros losing Springer, he’s produced at an All-Star level. Tucker has earned 4.5 fWAR and 5.0 bWAR, and is slashing .293/.359/.555 with 28 home runs, 36 doubles, and 88 RBI, also chipping in 14 stolen bases.

By comparison Hernandez has earned 4.0 fWAR thus far, and 5.0 bWAR. He’s not quite as valuable on the defensive side of the game as the other three outfielders I’ve mentioned, but to his credit he’s shown significant improvement and even become pretty reliable. That’s likely the biggest difference between Hernandez and the rest of the crowd, and he’s closed that gap quite a bit while also continuing to develop as a hitter.

The fact that Hernandez generally hits in the fifth spot in the Blue Jays’ lineup shows what an embarrassment of riches they have. As far as the AL outfielders rankings go, he’s a no-doubt Top 4 player to me.