Blue Jays: Robbie Ray’s Cy Young chances just improved even more

Robbie Ray has pitched well enough for the Blue Jays this season to warrant strong Cy Young award consideration, and his chances just improved even more.

The American League’s strikeout leader is arguably one of three leading candidates for the honour. There are several others who are still in the conversation, but as of today I would bet good money that the top three would consist of Ray, Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, and Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

I wrote about Ray’s chances to win the award earlier this month, and he’s been absolutely dominant since that time. While his own performance will be the most important factor, a week ago I would argue that he was third in the race behind the other two. After his last couple of outings, and now that Lance Lynn has just hit the Injured List for at least 10 days due to a right knee inflammation, that may have changed.

Lynn isn’t expected to be out for very long, but his absence might be enough to hurt his own case. For now, let’s compare the three in a few of the significant categories:

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Robbie Ray– 10-5, 2.71 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, 159.1 IP, 202 K, 5.9 bWAR

Gerrit Cole– 13-6, 2.80 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 148 IP, 200 K, 5.0 bWAR

Lance Lynn– 10-4, 2.59 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, 135.2 IP, 152 K, 4.6 bWAR

As you can see, it’s a very tight race between the American League’s top three starting pitchers. Ray leads in innings pitched, strikeouts, and bWAR, while Cole has the better WHIP, and strikes out batters at a slightly higher rate. Lynn has the lowest ERA of the trio, and prior to getting tagged for seven runs during his last start his numbers looked even better.

While we hear the “how important was he to his team?” argument all the time during MVP debates, that’s not really applicable in the Cy Young category. If it were that would only help Ray’s case further, who has been absolutely crucial for the Blue Jays in 2021, but the same would apply to Cole who helped keep the Yankees afloat while they struggled mid-season.

If Lynn only misses one start then the competition may not be that impacted, however, I wouldn’t bank on the White Sox rushing him back. They hold a 10.0 game lead in the AL Central, and there really isn’t a challenger for them to even worry about. When you combine that with the fact that Dallas Keuchel has maybe even been pushed out of the rotation because of their depth, and the White Sox can more than afford to take their time making sure that Lynn is healthy. That’ll be especially important as they look ahead to the playoffs. Another strong contender in Chris Bassitt has all but fallen out of the award race due to injury, and to a lesser extent, the same could happen to Lynn.

However the season finishes up, Ray has been doing his part to put his name into the conversation by posting a 1.72 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over his last seven starts, also striking out 60 over 47.0 innings. If the Blue Jays can remain in the postseason rest over the season’s final month, Ray’s work will be one of the most important reasons they’ve remained relevant. He’s been so good, he may very well end up as the fourth Blue Jay to win the Cy Young.