Blue Jays: How many names in ink? Not as many as you’d think

After the Blue Jays have endured a free fall in August, it’s fair that fans have started wondering about what the roster could look like in 2022.

As I think about the same thing, I can’t help but marvel at how much my opinion has changed over the last month. In some cases with certain players, not much has changed in the way I view them, and with others the situation is quite different. I guess that’ll happen when you go from looking like a legitimate playoff team to an obvious outsider, and even more when it happens in a matter of a couple of weeks.

The Blue Jays are set to lose several significant contributors in free agency, unless they decide to make competitive offers of their own to retain them. That includes a potential Cy Young candidate in Robbie Ray, an All-Star and down-ballot MVP candidate in Marcus Semien, and several more who have contributed to the success of the 2021 team. I’m confident that Ross Atkins and the front office will make an effort to retain at least one of those two, but it’s going to be hard to keep the whole band together.

With that in mind, I started thinking about how many names would be “written in ink” for next year’s roster at this early stage. Obviously a lot can change over the last 34 games, especially for young players like Santiago Espinal, Kevin Smith, and even Alejandro Kirk, but it’s also getting pretty late in the year for things to change too drastically.

Written in ink into the lineup

For now, here’s what I’ve come up with as far as players we can be all but guaranteed to see in 2022. I’ve started with the lineup, and as always I’ll explain my rationale after, so try not to call for my head too quickly.

C- ?
1B- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2B- ?
3B- ?
SS- Bo Bichette
LF- ?
CF- George Springerr
RF- Teoscar Hernandez
DH-

Obviously I’ve left a few significant names off of my list here, but as I said before, this is a group that would considered to be written in ink. Allow me to explain the questions I could see Atkins and his team asking themselves over the winter, and even here in August. I also omitted Semien for now, although I’d sure love to see him back at second base next season.

I’ll start with the catching position, which is a spot on the Blue Jays lineup card that remains up in the air. My guess is that they’ll continue to roll with some combination of Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Alejandro Kirk, at least to start the season, but it wouldn’t shock me if any of the three are shopped and/or traded over the winter. That’s because I think the job will be handed to Gabriel Moreno at some point next season, and I view this very much as a placeholder situation. I could be wrong about that, but if I’m on the right track then I would argue that the Jays should see what kind of value Kirk might carry on the trade market.

Next would be a list of infielders that includes Espinal, Smith, and the currently injured Cavan Biggio. What happens with them could be directly linked to whether Semien comes back, which would occupy second on a full-time basis. If he doesn’t, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Biggio moved back to second. As for Smith and Espinal, it’s entirely possible that they could each get a shot at third base in 2022, but they’re hardly written in ink at this stage. As it was last winter, second and third base remain as question marks.

Why didn’t I include Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field? I’m not sure that he’s done enough to truly establish himself as a foundational piece of the core of the Blue Jays. He’s definitely a popular player and a well-liked teammate, but his defence in the outfield is still an issue even with a cannon for a throwing arm. It’s entirely possible that the Blue Jays give him another shot in 2022, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him move to more of a DH role, perhaps go back to experimenting with playing in the infield more, or even end up as a trade candidate. As for Randal Grichuk, I think they’ll hope to have him in a 4th outfielder role as long as Springer is healthy next season, or perhaps they’ll look to offload his salary in a trade.

Last but not least would be the DH spot, and I think we’ve seen the Blue Jays preference there this season. Ideally they’ll be able to use the DH spot to rotation in guys like Springer, Vlad Jr., Bichette, and more, in order to give them a half day off to rest their leagues. I fully expect that practice to continue next season, unless Gurriel Jr. gets the glove taken out of his hands.

Written in ink into the rotation

Just as there are many questions about how the lineup could look, the rotation could be in a similar spot. Here’s what I’ve got down at this point:

1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Jose Berrios
3- Alek Manoah
4- ?
5- ?

The good news is they’ll start with a rock solid foundation of Ryu, Berrios, and Manoah for a top three. Ryu has two years remaining on the deal he signed ahead of the 2020 campaign, and Berrios has one more season before he’ll become a free agent. As a pre-arbitration eligible rookie, Manoah should be around for many years.

After that I would suggest that there are three questions that Atkins and his front office team will need to answer. The obvious place to start is with the pending free agency of their ace and Cy Young candidate in Robbie Ray. A month ago I would have argued that it was a foregone conclusion that the two sides would work out a new deal, but Ray has been so good during the second half (and the entire season, really) that he’s likely pitching himself into one of the top spots on this winter’s free agency list. I’m confident the Jays will try to bring him back, but if and when the bidding gets over 100 million they may have second thoughts.

Ideally the Blue Jays would be able to retain Ray, and if they’re really lucky then Nate Pearson could fill the fifth spot in the rotation. The long-time premium prospect has battled a host of different injuries as he’s tried to get his MLB career started, and I’m sure he’s looking forward to a clean slate in 2022. If he can pitch up to his potential then he could be the best 5th starter in baseball, but that comes with a lot big ifs.

The third is the status of Steven Matz, who has pitched so well in August that he’s making a great argument for a new contract as well. My guess is that he could be a back-up plan if they were to lose Ray, and that’s mostly because of the presence of Ross Stripling, who still has one year remaining of contract control, and who proved himself as a more than capable back-end starter.

They’ll likely seek some additional veteran depth if they can find it, but for the most part the Blue Jays rotation has been quietly excellent in 2021. If they can manage to keep Ray, they could be an elite group next season.

Last but not least- The coaching staff

If I’m going to cover the various parts of the MLB roster, I figured I’d do the same with a few key positions on the coaching staff. I’m not going to break down every last area, but I will talk about three of the most significant roles on the bench.

I’ll begin with Pete Walker, who has become an institution in Toronto for his work with pitchers over the years. He’s highly regarded as of the better pitching coaches in baseball, and after the performance we’ve seen from guys like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, and Ross Stripling in 2021, the legend continues to grow. It’s unfortunate he hasn’t been able to work that same magic with the bullpen, but I don’t think his job will be in jeopardy by any means.

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How about hitting coach Guillermo Martinez? If we narrowed the focus to just the month of August then Martinez’s job might be in jeopardy, but looking at the season as a whole, I would argue he’s done an excellent job. Not only did we witness the breakout of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., we’ve also enjoyed the continued evolution of Teoscar Hernandez into a perennial Silver Slugger candidate, and a bounce-back campaign from Marcus Semien that will earn him some down ballot MVP votes.

The most noticeable difference to me this season is the way the Blue Jays have taken the ball to right field with their right-handed dominant lineup. That was especially the case earlier in the season, but players like Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and the trio I’ve already mentioned were making teams pay for shifting around the infield. The hitters were letting the ball travel a little longer in the count and staying aggressive early in their at-bats, and the recipe has worked well. They’ve been in a team-wide slump over the last few weeks, but overall I think Martinez will get solid marks for his work with the hitters.

And then there’s manager Charlie Montoyo, whose seat could be getting hotter by the day. The Blue Jays extended his contract before this season got started, and it doesn’t expire until the end of the 2022 campaign. That said, it’s very common to make sure that managers aren’t entering a season with “lame duck” status, and being let go with a year left happens more often than not.

Montoyo is a likeable character and the front office has adamantly endorsed him in the past, but fans have been growing impatient with him as the team has struggled to keep up in the playoff race. He’s made plenty of questionable decisions that have brought that criticism on as well, and while I once thought he was a lock to return in 2022, now I’m not so sure. In fact, if I had to make a better either way, I’m guessing we’ll see a new bench boss next season.

With such a talented young core in Toronto, we’re going to see a lot of familiar faces back in 2022 no matter what happens. However, there is going to be some changes coming one way or another.