Blue Jays: Robbie Ray’s case for the AL Cy Young award

Robbie Ray has transformed into an elite pitcher for the Blue Jays in 2021, and he’s been so effective he might even come away with some hardware when all is said and done.

If you told most Blue Jays fans at the start of the season that Ray could be one of the leading contenders for the Cy Young award,  you likely would have been laughed out of the room. It’s not that fans didn’t have faith that the southpaw could be an asset for the Jays, but top-tier starters generally don’t sign for one year and eight million as free agents.

Ray arrived in Toronto from the Diamondbacks prior to last year’s trade deadline, and the fit worked so well in getting the fireballer back on track that he quickly re-signed to continue working with Pete Walker and his staff. It’s worked out beautifully for both sides, and Ray has been able to build on last season’s success to become one of the best starters in the American League. Pretty impressive for a guy that came to the Blue Jays with a 7.84 ERA last year.

The biggest difference for the 29 year old is that he’s found a way to harness his control, and the results have been pretty dramatic. Last year he was averaging 9.0 walks per nine innings with the Diamondbacks before he was traded, and even with improvement after joining the Blue Jays, he still issued free passes at a rate of 6.1 per nine. This year? He’s down to a career best 2.2, and it’s helped him lower his ERA down to 2.79 to go along with a 1.032 WHIP, and this while he’s struck out 178 over 145.1 frames.

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Any way you look at it, that’s elite production from the Tennessee native, but is it good enough to warrant legitimate Cy Young consideration?

Turning to baseballreference.com’s stat leaders page, I think you could make a strong case for Ray, and it starts with his AL leading 5.2 bWAR among starters. He’s bested by Shohei Ohtani in that department on the overall WAR leaderboard, but the Japanese sensation has picked up a lot of that value while leading the AL in home runs as a two-way player. Sticking strictly to pitching, Ray is the leader with Lance Lynn of the White Sox close behind at 4.5, Gerrit Cole at 4.4 for the Yankees, and a second White Sox hurler at 3.8 in Carlos Rondon.

Of course, bWAR isn’t the only stat that’s going to determine the award winner, but it’s a good place to start to show that Ray is very much a real candidate for the honour. He’s also 2nd in ERA behind Lynn (2.26), and 2nd to Cole in both WHIP (0.971) and strikeouts (185). He’s also 4th in innings pitched despite starting the season on the Injured List with a bruised elbow, and perhaps most encouraging of all, he’s among the top 10 in the AL in walks per nine innings. For a guy who has battled control issues for pretty much his entire career, that last part is almost hard to believe.

Unlike the MVP award, the Cy Young really doesn’t factor team performance into the equation in the same way. With that in mind I don’t know that Ray will lose too many points to the White Sox duo or to Cole if the Blue Jays can’t climb back into the playoff race. Beyond those three, the only other contender I could see as a serious factor would be Ohtani, but I don’t know that his counting stats will be high enough by season’s end. Prior to getting hit with a line drive that will likely keep him out for the rest of the season, Oakland’s Chris Bassitt would have been a real threat as well.

With the numbers being as tight as they are, a strong performance down the stretch from Ray could push him to a level that very few of us thought possible in 2021. He’s already achieved as much, which is especially helpful right before he becomes a free agent again, but adding the Cy Young award to his resume would be icing on the cake. I don’t know that he’d win if the award voting were held today, but he’s close enough to the top that he’s got a real shot with a strong finish.