Blue Jays: Misleading numbers with runners in scoring position

The Blue Jays have some of the best numbers with runners in scoring position in baseball, so why does it feel they struggle to put runs on the board when it matters most?

That’s a question that many of us have been asking ourselves lately. I know I’ve heard it talked about on the broadcast, and I’ve read about it in various articles, but after the blown opportunity against Detroit on Friday night I had to go look for myself.

And it boggles the mind, really.

According to mlb.com as of the end of play on Friday evening, the Blue Jays have the top Batting Average (.277), Slugging Percentage (.476), and OPS (.822) of any team in the game with runners in scoring position. With that in mind you’d think they’d be able to cash in on the seemingly countless opportunities they’ve been given against the Tigers, and the Nationals earlier in the week, and yet they’ve really struggled to score, even against a pair of the weakest teams in the league. So much so that after the game Charlie Montoyo said that the offence’s recent struggles factored into his decision to pinch hit for Alejandro Kirk in the 9th inning in order to bring in Breyvic Valera to bunt. We all know how that worked out.

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If the Blue Jays have the best numbers in baseball in this category, how can it be a weakness for them as a team? Obviously it’s been more of a sore spot for the club recently, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a strength of the club after having watched the vast majority of their games this year, and I know I’m not the only one that feels that way.

So, are we just out to lunch then?

Not exactly, and I think there’s a pretty simple answer for why the Blue Jays’ numbers look so good with RISP. When they’re hot, they’ve really piled on the opposition this year, and for lack of a better word, I think those games have padded the stats to give us a false sense of how they perform in those situations.

So far in 2021 the Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs in a single game on 16 different occasions. The worst beatdowns were handed to the Red Sox (18 , 13, and 12 runs), and the Angels (15 runs), and they’ve had 19 other games where they scored seven or more, many of which they lost as well. When the fuse is lit it’s hard to stop this team, but unfortunately that kind of outburst doesn’t happen every night.

Obviously every squad is going to have their big nights over the course of 162 games that will help pad the stats, but I’m seeing a pretty extreme version of that with the Blue Jays in 2021. On the other side of their many evenings of smashing the ball all over the place, they’ve also had 30 games where they’ve managed just two runs or less.

The other stat that popped out to me is that for a team with so much firepower, for some reason they struggle to hit in the late innings. Their slash line as a group in the 7th inning or later is just .225/.295/.394, which puts them down to 18th in baseball, and all too often they’ve struggled to come up with a big hit late in the game. That’s been a particular issue given that the bullpen has coughed up so many late leads, and the Blue Jays haven’t been able to respond often enough.

I know I haven’t done a deep dive here, but I think you can see my point. While the numbers suggest that the Blue Jays are elite producers with runners in scoring position, I would argue that the “feast or famine” nature of their offence padded the data enough to paint a better picture than the reality of things. Lately it’s been a real problem for a struggling lineup.