Blue Jays: Questions that need to be answered yet this season

Whether the Blue Jays can still make a run at the postseason or not, they have some questions that need to be answered this season.

In July the front office made it pretty clear that they’ve swung the window of contention wide open for this core group with their aggressive moves at the deadline. They acquired Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson from the Marlins, Trevor Richards from the Padres, and Brad Hand from the Nationals, to theoretically boost the bullpen. The move that really cemented the Jays’ intentions as a “win-now” franchise was sending two of their top prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to Minnesota for Jose Berrios.

Things went extremely well for their first home stand that saw them finish 9-2, but unfortunately there have been far too many wasted opportunities since. I’m not at the point where I think the Blue Jays should concede the 2021 campaign with 43 games left, as they’re still only 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, but I will acknowledge that their chances are getting pretty slim.

With that in mind, in addition to fighting for their playoff lives I think the Blue Jays are going to spend the remainder of the season trying to answer a few important questions as far as how to proceed in the future. The 2021 season has brought many great highlights, but unless they go on a Hollywood run over the last month and a half then I think most people would agree that it’s a disappointing finish.

With that in mind, what important questions do the Blue Jays need to answer?

How to spend the winter budget

For as great as the roster that Ross Atkins and his team have assembled in Toronto, there is a lot of work to be done this coming winter.

By far the biggest questions will be about the pending free agency of two star players in Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray. We’ve talked about this quite a bit at Jays Journal recently, and I even wrote about how the Blue jays probably can’t extend everyone that they’d like to. In fact, I’d argue that it will come down to Ray OR Semien this winter, and that’s not a choice that I envy at all.

A month ago I would have bet that there wasn’t much of a choice, even if the Jays would like to keep both of them. That was before Austin Martin was traded to Minnesota, so he clearly won’t be taking over at second base if Semien leaves. I’m sure the Jays were hoping that Martin and Jordan Groshans could be realistic candidates for promotion in 2022, but even Groshans is still playing in AA at this point.

It’s possible that the Blue Jays will stay very close to Semien’s free agency and hope that his market isn’t as good as the 30 year old deserves. He was an All-Star and has had a seamless transition to second base this year, and will likely finish with several career highs in offensive categories. With the ability to play shortstop and his well deserved reputation as a premium player and clubhouse presence, I wouldn’t rule out the Blue Jays making a serious bid.

I’m certain they will want to keep Ray around as well if they can, but it may come down to what he’s able to fetch in free agency. Like Semien, Ray is arguably having a career season, and his improvement in the control department has put him on a new level. A month or two ago it seemed unthinkable that they could let him walk, but after trading for Berrios and seeing Alek Manoah’s emergence as a quality MLB starter, it’s not as clear as it once was.

Of course, the Blue Jays will also face some serious pressure to spend money to improve their bullpen too, so even if ownership approves a significant boost to the payroll there’s still going to be a limit to what they can do. I think most of us can agree that this team is “good”, but not quite “great” just yet, and the decisions that Atkins and company make this offseason will have a tremendous impact on the future of this team.

No pressure or anything.

A few other questions in the lineup

In addition to figuring out where Biggio fits next year, I’d argue that the front office has a few other questions to answer before next season begins.

The first is one that may answer itself before the end of the regular season schedule, and that’s what to do with the catching position. Between Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Alejandro Kirk, there hasn’t been much to celebrate, and both Jansen and Kirk have spent significant time on the Injured List.

My guess is that the front office will stick with the status quo for 2022, at least to begin the year. I say that because I think Gabriel Moreno is the receiver that they truly view as the backstop of the future in Toronto, and I’m not sure he’ll be ready to take over when next season begins. He’s tearing it up in Double-A this season, but I imagine they’ll want him to spend a bit of time in Triple-A as well. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Moreno debut at some point in 2022, and from there I would guess it’ll be his job to lose.

As far as the other three, the bigger question might be what to do with them. If the plan is to eventually hand the reigns to Moreno, would it not make sense to shop all three of them this offseason? Jansen and McGuire’s value might be limited on the trade market, but Kirk has been considered as a top 100 prospect, and has clearly proven he can hit at the big league level. Or perhaps the Blue Jays will want to give Kirk more of an audition as the starter in 2022. To that end, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of the 22 year old before this season is done. One way or another it feels like a placeholder situation to me, and the front office always has the option to operate that way.

The second area of the lineup that I still question is the outfield, and mostly the fit of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on defence. While Teoscar Hernandez has made steady improvements and turned himself into a serviceable defender, I’m not sure you can say the same about Gurriel Jr. I’d be very interested in seeing him working out at third base over the winter, but after moving from the infield to his current spot in left a couple seasons ago, I can understand the argument for a little more patience. One way or another the Blue Jays need better glove work in left field, even if he has one of the best outfield arms in baseball.

I feel like in order to make Gurriel Jr’s presence work, and with the questionable health of George Springer this year, Randal Grichuk is very much needed going forward in order to make this whole thing work. Even if he frustrates a portion of the fan base, he’s been very important in covering for Springer’s absence, and could fill a similar role as an outfielder that can move around. The Blue Jays’ best current defensive configuration would have Springer in centre with Grichuk and Hernandez in the corners, and the depth is harder to sacrifice than you think. They may consider trying to trade Grichuk to get out from under the $10.33 million he’s owed over each of the next two seasons, but they’re going to need better health from Springer, and better defence from Gurriel Jr.

Having said all of that, I can see a scenario where the Blue Jays leave the outfield and catching position alone this winter. Ideally they’ll be able to gain some confidence in both positions over the last 43 games, because otherwise they’ll be topics of discussion throughout the offseason.

Do they have the right captain for this ship?

A month ago I didn’t think there was any chance that the Blue Jays would enter the 2022 season without Charlie Montoyo. These days, I’m starting to think I was wrong.

When Montoyo was originally hired in October of 2018 it was a three-year deal with a club option for the fourth season. The Blue Jays picked up that option back in March of this year, so he’s already under contract for 2022 whether you like it or not.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Blue Jays will bring him back. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro had a lot of great things to say about Montoyo’s work back in March, but that was also before the 2021 campaign had even began. It’s also very common to avoid a “lame duck” contract year for a manager, and exercising Montoyo’s option gave him some job security beyond this season. I’m sure their opinion of the man and his work hasn’t changed that drastically, but I believe that the situation in Toronto has evolved a fair bit.

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The Blue Jays obvious meant business when the signed George Springer to a 6-year, 150 million dollar contract last winter, but I’m not sure many believed they could be a real World Series contender in 2021, which might be a step that was a year or so away. Since then the young core of this club has changed the narrative, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. becoming a franchise player and legitimate MVP candidate, and Bo Bichette earning his first All-Star appearance. Add in a best case scenario signing with the roll of the dice on a Marcus Semien bounce-back, and another step forward for Robbie Ray into the elite stratosphere of starting pitchers, and the pieces really started coming together.

As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays will have some tough decisions with Ray and Semien, but for the most part they’ll return the same core in 2022 and hope for a lot better health from Springer, and from the bullpen. Now that we’ve witnessed the potential from this core group, the expectation in 2022 and going forward will be to win. Montoyo has been lauded in many circles as a great manager in helping young players reach their potential, but the Blue Jays are starting to move past that stage.

Maybe that is a real strength for Montoyo, and you could make an argument that he’s been a big plus when it comes to helping guys like Guerrero Jr. and Bichette adjust to life in the big leagues. However, there have been a lot of questionable decisions from the third-year skipper, especially lately, and I know the fan base has been throwing a lot of blame in his direction lately. That may be unfair with the way the Blue Jays run things in a collaborative approach, but he’s still the face of the in-game decision making.

More importantly, the Blue Jays front office knows that missing the playoffs this season will be viewed as a disappointment, and it’s possible that they feel the need to hold someone accountable. If that’s the case, Montoyo’s job might not be as secure as it was a month or two ago, exercised option or not.

With 43 games left in the regular season and just 4.5 games between the Blue Jays and a Wild Card spot, the first focus has to be on trying to make a comeback and go on a hot streak. However, the front office always has to be thinking a few steps ahead, and there are several questions that still need answers.