Blue Jays: Who should the front office look to extend first?

The Blue Jays will likely look to re-sign/extend Robbie Ray and/or Marcus Semien this winter, but no matter what they are going to have big contract decisions to make in the near future.

It seems like a no-brainer to try and retain guys like Ray and Semien, but it’s not as simple as thinking about just next season, especially when there are several others that they’ll look to get under contract for the long-term. While we like to think that a big corporation like Rogers Communications could have an endless budget, most Blue Jays know better than that, even if they’re not afraid to run one of the highest payrolls in baseball when things are going well.

For what it’s worth, I’m guessing that it will cost in the neighbour of 40 million annually to retain both Semien and Ray, and while that may be well worth the cost, Ross Atkins and his front office team will have to weigh the immediate value that duo could bring to the roster against what they have to accomplish in the future.

With such a young core of players in place in Toronto, they do have the luxury of taking advantage of some of the pre-arbitration salaries that are regulars in the lineup. That said, that will only last for so long, and with other talented players scheduled to hit free agency over the next couple of years that flexibility is going to disappear in a hurry.

So who will Atkins and company look to sign for the long-term, and which situations do they have to address first? Let’s have a look.

The young phenom

Some Blue Jays fans have already started asking an important question, and that’s whether or not the club will try to work out a long-term deal with their franchise player in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The good news is that the Jays will have Vlad Jr. under contract for four more seasons after this one regardless of whether they talk about an extension or not. In 2022 he’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time, and it’s a slam-dunk that the MVP candidate will get a substantial raise from the $605,400 he’s earning this season. It’s hard to predict what kind of increase he could see, but he’d have a case for a record-breaking ask.

Rather than go through that process every winter over the next four years, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Blue Jays try to add some certainty to their budget, and also reward their young star in the process. Obviously the greater incentive would be to keep him in a Blue Jays uniform beyond just the next four seasons, and paying him early should be a more affordable way to do that, and hopefully a more convincing argument to get the slugger to commit.

We’ve seen other teams across baseball use this strategy in recent years, with the White Sox locking up Eloy Jimenez (6 years, 43 million) and Luis Robert (6 years, 50 million) to long-term deals at an extremely early stage, and Atlanta did the same with Ronald Acuna Jr. (8 years, 100 million) and Ozzie Albies (7 years, 35 million) as well. In those four cases I’d argue that the team should get a very sizeable discount because of their early faith, and the Blue Jays would be a little too late to look for that kind of deal.

On the other extreme, I’m sure Guerrero Jr. and his agent are drooling over the 14 year, 330 million dollar deal that Fernando Tatis Jr. secured from the San Diego Padres and looking to score something similar. Tatis Jr. is the same age as young Guerrero, and while he brings additional value like speed and a more difficult defensive position (when he’s at shortstop), that contract set a new bar for Vlad Jr. to reach for.

My expectation is that the Blue Jays will wait for at least another year before they talk about a long-term pact with Vlad Jr. I’m sure they’d like to get something done sooner than later, but with more urgent high-salary priorities coming up over the next year or so, don’t be surprised if Atkins leaves this situation a little longer. The only problem with that is that waiting longer may just increase the price.

If you’re committing to Batman, you’ll need Robin too

I know it doesn’t have to be this way, but it kinda feels like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette should be a package deal when it comes to long-term planning for this franchise. Bichette is also under contract for four more years and won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign, but he’s actually not arbitration eligible until after next season.

As much as Vlad Jr. has had a bigger spotlight in 2021, what Bichette has been doing has been pretty impressive in his own right. The 23 year old was a first-time All-Star this year, and deservedly so as he leads American League shortstops in the majority of offensive categories. He’s been overshadowed a bit at times by Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, and George Springer, but there’s no denying that Bichette is the real deal.

I’m willing to bet that making a long-term commitment to Guerrero Jr. would go a long way to getting Bichette to stick around as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the two will consult with each other before making that kind of decision. They’re as exciting as any young duo in baseball, and it’s not an exaggeration to think that the Blue Jays could build their team around the pair for the next decade or more.

Where it gets complicated is the financial situation that I alluded to before, and that’s the simple fact that you can’t keep every high-salaried player that you want to. Look no further than the Yankees to see a team with several big dollar commitments that may have limited how aggressive they were last winter.

I’m not suggesting that the Jays won’t be ready to pay and commit to Bichette if they have the opportunity, but that’s where their decisions with others will become a factor as well. For example (and to keep things ridiculously simple), if the Jays were to re-sign Semien and Ray for roughly 20 million per season, that would mean they’ve invested 85 million on four players between those two along with Springer and Ryu. Add a desire to keep Berrios a year later and now you’re easily over 100 million on just five players. I’m sure you catch my drift.

So if the Blue Jays let Semien walk this winter I hope fans will understand that it’s probably more about Bichette and Guerrero Jr. than it is about saving money. There won’t be easy decisions to make, but it’s a good problem to have so many stars on your team.

Yeah there’s (at least) one more

The Blue Jays have been fortunate to have the AL Player of the Week on their team for the past three straight weeks. First George Springer took home the honour for consecutive weeks, and then it was Teoscar Hernandez who paced the American League in offensive production and won the award most recently.

The Jays have been receiving a tremendous bargain when it comes to Hernandez’s services over the last two seasons, as he’s being paid just $4.325 million in 2021. He’ll be due to receive a significant raise when he goes to arbitration for the second time this winter, and likely again a season later when he has his third and final trip. I’m sure the Blue Jays will be more than happy to pay that rate to retain him for the next two seasons, but for a player that’s just 28 years old and is still improving, a longer extension could be on the table.

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My colleague Tyson Shushkewich wrote just yesterday about the idea of extending Hernandez, and it makes a lot of sense for the Blue Jays to explore the idea. He was a Silver Slugger award winner in 2020, an All-Star in this season, and he’s collected 20 home runs and 81 RBI despite only playing 98 games this season. Like Bichette, he’s often overshadowed by the presence of others like Vlad Jr., Springer, and even Semien, but there’s no denying that he’s producing at an elite rate. Just as impressive as his power numbers, his slash line of .313/.355/.526 shows that he’s been a very complete hitter.

When you add the fact that Hernandez has become a more reliable outfielder, at least compared to the adventures we witnessed earlier in his career, and there are a lot of reasons for the Blue Jays to want to keep him as part of the core of this team for the long haul. He’s also part of a tightly knit group on the bench along with Vlad Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and others as well, and building that clubhouse culture is a big plus to go along with his performance.

As you can see, the Blue Jays are going to have a lot of difficult decisions to make over the next few years. I’ve said it a few times, but I’ll repeat it once more that they won’t be any to keep everyone and still have the budget space to add in other important areas of need, like the bullpen for instance. That said, I’m sure Ross Atkins and the front office will try to keep as many of their current stars as they can, and it’ll be an interesting situation to watch play out.