Blue Jays: Most likely impact prospect to wind up traded

Who knows how aggressive the Blue Jays will be ahead of the trade deadline, but if they go for a big swap, there’s one prospect who makes sense as a centre piece.

I know there are a lot of fans that won’t like to hear this, but Alejandro Kirk is the high-end prospect I see as the most likely to be expendable. Before you overreact, that doesn’t mean that I’m not a fan of the 22 year old, and this is purely just my speculation. I’m actually quite high on the 5’8 slugger, but I also realize that the Jays are going to have to give up something of value in order to make the improvements they truly need.

It’s helped that the front office went out and acquired a pair of relievers in Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, but there’s still more work to be done to get the pitching staff to a contender level. I believe they are at least a high-end starter and a late-inning reliever away from having the roster they need to compete for a playoff spot, and arguably even more depending on how many internal options get healthy in time to help them in 2021.

If the Blue Jays are going to target a top starting pitcher, they’re going to need to send significant prospect capital back in return. Kirk alone won’t get that done, but he could be viewed as an important part of any package sent from the Jays. He’s ranked as the #57 prospect according to Baseball America’s top 100 list (subscription required), which is quite the jump from how he was viewed even a year or two ago. That’s due in large part to proving he can be an offensive asset at the highest level despite having limited minor league experience.

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What’s interesting is that Kirk ranks as the 7th Blue Jay on BA’s list behind Austin Martin (#12), Gabriel Moreno (#30), Alek Manoah (#31), Nate Pearson (#32), Simeon Woods Richardson (#46), and Jordan Groshans (#49). That’s obviously a reflection of the quality of their minor league system, and they also have Orelvis Martinez at #74 for a total of eight in the top 100.

The reason I see Kirk being one of the most likely trade chips to go is more a matter of circumstance. At the moment they have a pair of young catchers in Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, which may be just enough given the depth of the rest of their lineup. Kirk could give them some additional punch in 2021 if they bring him back up to the big leagues, but that would likely mean they’d have to designate McGuire for assignment again, and they’d surely lose him this time. As for Jansen, he’s been the preferred catcher for Hyun Jin Ryu, and that could be enough to keep him around in itself.

More significantly, I truly believe that the Blue Jays see Moreno as their catcher of the future, and that’s for pretty good reason. He’s been terrorizing the minor leagues in 2021, and there’s a good chance we’ll see him at the highest level as early as next season. I’m sure plenty of rival GM’s are asking about Moreno, but I’m willing to bet the Jays would much rather part with Kirk if they’re dealing a young catcher. Based on everything I’ve read over the past few years, I don’t think Moreno is going anywhere.

I could be wrong about that of course, but if not then it’s hard to see a role for Kirk in Toronto for very long. He’ll more than likely make his way back to the big leagues at some point this season, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Jays continue rolling with the Jansen-McGuire duo, or even looking for a bit of an upgrade this month on the trade market. Even if Kirk could provide an improvement to the lineup, I’m not sure he’ll be ready to do quite the same on defence given his limited experience.

Speaking of the trade market, I imagine by now many of you are wondering why I haven’t suggested that the Jays shop McGuire/Jansen. I’m sure they will, but I’m not very confident they would gain a whole lot toward their goal of improving other than creating some space on the 40-man roster. If they’re looking to use their catching depth to acquire a needle-mover of a player, Kirk is a much more valuable trade chip. Ross Atkins has been good about getting something for nothing, but they need a true impact player or two in order to make the difference. With all due respect to Cimber and Richards, trading guys like Rowdy Tellez and Joe Panik isn’t going to be enough to achieve that.

I suppose that phrase I just used in a “needle-mover of a player” might be the key to whether Kirk could be a trade chip or not for the Blue Jays this month . There’s no guarantee that the front office will make that big of a move, but if they do then don’t be surprised if the fan favourite is part of the package going the other way.