Blue Jays: Don’t worry about Gunnar Hoglund’s Tommy John surgery

Tommy John surgery isn’t as scary as it used to be for pitchers, and it wasn’t enough to keep the Blue Jays from drafting Gunnar Hoglund with their first round pick, 19th overall.

I had a few friends message me right after the Jays took Hoglund with their first pick, mostly wondering how big of a deal it is that their newest prospect went under the knife earlier this year. While it’s not ideal and I don’t know a whole lot about his specific scenario, the surgery really isn’t the death knell that it used to be for pitchers. In fact, it’s become pretty common these days.

Look no further than to some of the best pitchers in baseball this year for proof that you can bounce back from the procedure. Arguably the best pitcher in the world in Jacob deGrom had surgery in 2010, and he’s gone on to star in the big leagues and is posting some historic numbers in 2021. Nathan Eovaldi has been fantastic for the Red Sox in a bounce-back season, and he’s had Tommy John twice. Lance Lynn has once again been one of the best starters in the American League, and he joined the club back in 2015. You may remember that baseball’s current sensation Shohei Ohtani had the same surgery in October of 2018, keeping him from the mound in 2019, and for the better part of last season as well.

Other notable current MLB stars in the TJ club include Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Chris Paddack, Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin and plenty more. There’s even a pretty notable group of star hurlers recovering from the surgery as we speak that includes Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Kirby Yates and others.

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As you can see, that’s a fairly lengthy list with some pretty big names on it, and that’s not even touching the pitchers that we’ve personally witnessed as Blue Jays fans. Did you know there are several current Jays that have had Tommy John? That list includes Ross Stripling (2014), Jordan Romano (2015), Anthony Kay (2016), David Phelps (2018), TIm Mayza (2019) and Steven Matz (2010), and there’s a very good chance I’ve missed somebody. Each of those pitchers bounced back to put the injury behind them (unfortunately Phelps had another significant injury), and Blue Jays fans also saw an effective Taijuan Walker in 2020, who was in his first season back after recovering from TJ.

None of this is to suggest that it’s a harmless procedure. Not every pitcher returns with the same form, but the more common the surgery becomes the better the results have generally been. It’s unfortunate to lose 12-18 months for the recovery, but it’s far from the end of the road for a pitching prospect, especially one with as much pedigree as Hoglund brings to the table.

For those wondering, Hoglund had his surgery in May of this year, so he’s very much in the beginning stages of his recovery. It’s an injury that typically takes between 12-18 months to put behind you, so in a best case scenario the right-hander might be able to throw a few innings at the back half of next season. More likely, he’ll be ready to go once the 2023 campaign rolls around.

Prior to his injury Hoglund was viewed by most scouts as a projected top 10 pick, so the timing wasn’t so good for the Ole Miss product. That said, the Blue Jays clearly believe in him enough to make him their first rounder, and aren’t that worried about having to be patient while he recovers. Chances are, we shouldn’t be either.