Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Draft Big Board for 2021

20. Joshua Baez – OF Dexter Southfield (MA)
The best way to describe Joshua Baez’s game is powerful.  The Massachusetts native constantly registers exit velocity of 100+ mph and has an arm that has been clocked at 92 mph from the outfield.

Baez has the tools to turn into a premier power corner outfielder but does have a bit of swing and miss in his game that will have to be ironed out if he is going to fully tap into his raw power at the next level.  The swing and miss is real and is why I have Baez ranked all the way down at 21, but the power and arm may be enough for a team in the top 20 to take a swing at the kid from Boston.

19. Jud Fabian – OF. Florida 

Florida’s Jud Fabian is essentially the college version of Joshua Baez.

Fabian provides immense power from the right side of the plate and demonstrated this by blasting 20 home runs in only 59 games for the Gators this past season.  Fabian doesn’t have the same arm strength that Baez possesses, but the Florida native has received plus run grades (running a 6.54 60 while still in high school 3 years ago), which has provided teams with the hope that Fabian could stick in center field once he turns pro.

Like most power hitters that will be drafted in the back half of the first round, Fabian has a lot of swing and miss in his game, punching out in almost 30% of his at-bats during his final season in Gainesville.  The Florida product showed a better feel for the strike zone last summer, where he walked more than he struck out during his 19 games in the Florida Collegiate Summer League, so the potential to hit for average is definitely there.  Fabian will just have to figure out how to showcase this on a more consistent basis if he wants to succeed in the minors.

18. Ben Kudrna – RHP Blue Valley Southwest (KS)

Kudrna is one of my favorite under-the-radar prospects in this year’s class.  The LSU commit has primarily received second-round grades and I quite frankly don’t understand why.

Kudrna is an advanced pitcher for his age, already possessing a three-pitch mix.  The right-hander features a fastball that resides in the low to mid 90’s with fantastic arm side run, a changeup that he has great feel for, and a slider with a ton of movement and late-breaking action.  Along with his advanced arsenal, Kudrna has projectable size, standing at 6’3” and weighing in at 195 pounds.  Combining his three-pitch mix with his plus size bodes well for the Kansas native sticking as a starter throughout his professional career and is why he is someone who I would feel comfortable with the Blue Jays taking at 19 despite the number of second round grades he has received.

17. Bubba Chandler –  SS/RHP North Oconee (GA)

Thanks to Shohei Ohtani, two-way stars are all the rage right now in professional baseball.  Bubba Chandler is entering the draft as both a pitcher and shortstop and has the potential to turn into a star on both the mound and at the plate.

Chandler has a lively arm, with a fastball that constantly sits in the mid 90’s and “regularly touches 97 mph”.  His best secondary offering is his curveball, which added velocity this past offseason and has great depth, making it a plus offering to go along with his heater.  While most scouts believe that the Georgia native has the highest ceiling on the mound, others believe his future involves him playing more shortstop due to his raw athleticism and plus power.  Being able to play on both sides of the ball has made Bubba Chandler one of the more interesting prospects in this year’s class.

While I don’t know if he is going to be able to make it to the big leagues as a two-way player, some teams will fall in love with that vision, which is why he is going to be a first-round selection.

16. Christian Franklin – OF Arkansas

Christian Franklin is a player that has slowly dropped down my draft board over the past month and a half.

When I first took a look at Franklin earlier in the season, I was impressed by the Kansas native, as I saw a player who already possessed plus power, speed, and arm strength and looked like he had corrected some of the swing and miss issues that had plagued him during his first two seasons in Fayetteville.  When I initially evaluated Franklin back in early April, the speedy center fielder was having a fantastic year, hitting just above .300, with a 1.014 OPS, and was the catalyst for the Arkansas offense, which at the time was the number one team in the nation.

Unfortunately, Franklin had a brutal second half of the season, watching his average drop over .030 points and looked overmatched by high-level pitching, especially in the NCAA tournament where teams were able to consistently beat the outfielder with fastballs up in the zone.  The five-tool potential is there and if Franklin is able to make more consistent contact, he has a chance to turn into a special player at the next level.  However, Franklin’s swing and miss issue is just as bad as it was when he arrived in Fayetteville, as he punched out in 32% of his at-bats during his freshman season and 36% this past year.

The lack of growth in a problem area of his game leaves me questioning if it is a skill that he will ever improve upon, or if Franklin is just destined to be a light-hitting fourth outfielder.

15. Gunnar Hoglund – RHP Ole Miss

Hoglund was selected 36th overall by the Pirates back in the 2018 draft, but a failed physical left the two sides far apart financially.  Hoglund realized he wasn’t going to get the kind of signing bonus he was looking for, so the right-hander decided to honor his commitment to Ole Miss and headed to Oxford to begin his collegiate career.

After a rough freshman campaign and a sophomore year that was cut short due to Covid-19, Hoglund finally showcased why he was selected in the supplement round out of high school this past season.  The right-hander posted a 2.87 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 5.65 in 62 ⅔ innings for the Rebels.  The improvement Hoglund displayed from his freshman to junior season was due to an uptick in fastball velocity, going from the upper 80’s to sit in the low 90’s, while still maintaining his plus command.

Unfortunately, the Florida products season was cut short due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him for the next 12-18 months.  Prior to the injury, Hoglund was seen as a safe, high floor pick due to his command and advanced repertoire.  Hoglund was viewed as someone who at the bare minimum, projected as a back end of the rotation starter, but the injury has made the right-hander more of a risky selection for the Blue Jays and because of this, there’s a big question mark as to where he might be selected tonight

14. Jordan Wicks – LHP Kansas State 

Kansas State has never had a player selected in the first round of the MLB Draft in school history.  Jordan Wicks is about to change that.

Wicks is your typical crafty lefty.  He isn’t overpowering, with a fastball that sits in the low 90’s, but has great command and excels in mixing pitches and keeping hitters off-balance.  Wicks is able to keep opposing hitters on their toes thanks to his superb change-up, which grades out as one of the best in the class.  The left-hander’s change-up is effective due to Wicks’ deceptive arm action and the “tumbling depth he gets on the pitch”, where it receives plenty of swings and misses against both righties and lefties.  The Arkansas native also features a slider that has received plus grades from scouts that gives the left-hander a legitimate three pitch mix, which is crucial considering he doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal.

You don’t have to throw hard to get hitters out and Jordan Wicks is living proof of that.  Despite this, I typically like to see a little more velocity when taking a college arm in the first round which is why the Kansas State product is ranked a little lower on this list, with other college arms that have more strikeout potential ahead of him.

13. Sal Frelick – OF Boston College 

Sal Frelick is an on-base machine.  The Massachusetts native has hit from the time he stepped on BC’s campus, posting a career .345 average while also walking more than he struck out in his 102 games with the Eagles.  Defensively, Frelick got most of his reps in right field early on in his collegiate career, before becoming the Eagles everyday center fielder this past season, where he “showed good instincts at the position”.

Combining his instincts with his 70-grade speed has left evaluators with the impression that the Boston College product can stick in center field once he turns pro.  The one drawback in Frelick’s game is his lack of power.  The Boston native only accumulated 25 extra-base last season for the Eagles.  Frelick is also undersized, listed at 5’9” 175 pounds so there isn’t a belief that there is more power to be untapped down the road. Because of this, Frelick is going to have to continue to get on base at a high clip if he is going to bring value to a ball club.  I believe that Frelick has the ability to do this thanks to his clean swing that has a great bat path and would be totally comfortable with the Blue Jays betting on his hit tool at pick 19.

12. Will Bednar – RHP Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s Will Bednar may have been the best player during this year’s College World Series and is a huge reason why the Bulldogs were crowned champions.  The Pennsylvania native won all three of his starts while posting a 1.47 ERA and striking out 23 batters in 18 ⅓ innings.  Bednar did this against premium competition, beating the number two ranked Texas Longhorns twice and the powerhouse Vanderbilt Commodores in the National Championship winning game.

The right-hander has flown up draft boards after his dominant playoff run and has established himself as a legitimate first-round pick, thanks to his recent outings.  Bednar is at a very similar spot in his development as former first-round pick Alek Manoah was when he was drafted.  The Mississippi State product currently has a two-pitch mix, with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s and a great slider that has fantastic movement and spin that the right-hander is able to locate constantly.

Like Manoah, Bednar will have to add a third pitch if he wants to remain a starter, but at the bare minimum, the Pennsylvania native already has the arsenal to be an effective reliever at the big league level.

11. Matheu Nelson – C Florida State

Matheu Nelson was quietly one of the better draft-eligible players in all of college baseball this season.  The Florida State product had an incredible year, slashing .330, .436, and .773 while leading the nation with 23 long balls in only 53 games.  Behind the dish, Nelson’s best tool is undoubtedly his arm, which received a 60 grade on MLB Pipeline and is seen as one of the best in the class.  Nelson is said to be inconsistent when receiving the ball and will need to clean up his footwork if he is going to stick as a catcher at the next level.  Because of these issues, most evaluators believe that the former Seminole is better suited as a third baseman long-term, a position that should allow his bat to shine more as well.

Nelson is one of the rare players in this class that is able to hit for power without sacrificing average.  The ability to stick behind the dish will immensely increase his value, but even if he fails to do so, I think that the Florida native has the tools to become a plus power corner third baseman, due to his bat and arm strength.

10. Jaden Hill – RHP Louisiana State University

Like Gunnar Hoglund, Jaden Hill is another college arm whose draft stock has plummeted after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

Hill has everything teams look for in an ace, starting with his repertoire that features a mid 90’s heater, a change-up that is considered to be one of the best in the class, and a slider that has sharp breaking action that Hill has a good feel for.  The Arkansas native combines his three-pitch mix with plus size, standing at 6’4” and weighing in at 234 pounds, which bodes well for his ability to stick as a starter down the road.

Hill was a consensus top 10 pick heading into the year, with the chance to compete for the number 1 selection if he was able to stay healthy and put out a good showing.  After having his season cut short due to injury and struggling when he was on the field, Hill is now viewed as a fringe first-round prospect, but one that I would still love to see the Jays select with the 19th pick due to the raw talent he possesses.

9. Michael McGreevy – RHP UC Santa Barbara

Throughout the first two seasons at the University of California Santa Barbara, Michael McGreevy was a pitcher that relied solely on command.  McGreevy’s heater sat in the upper 80’s which forced the California native to learn how to command his fastball which has now become his best trait, receiving a 60 grade from MLB Pipeline.

This past season, McGreevy saw an uptick in fastball velocity, watching his heater jump nearly five miles an hour to the low to mid 90’s, touching 96 mph on occasion and may have the best fastball command in the entire draft.  Despite seeing a rise in velocity, McGreevy was still able to maintain his pinpoint accuracy, and put together a fantastic year for the Gauchos, going 9-2 while posting a 2.92 ERA and a ridiculous 10.45 strikeout to walk ratio.

The UC Santa Barbara product is far from a polished pitcher.  While his changeup is considered to be an above-average pitch, that’s the only plus secondary offering McGreevy possesses.  The California native will have to refine either his slider or curveball if he wants to continue to start at the next level.

8. Chase Petty – RHP Mainland (NJ) 

Chase Petty may have the best fastball in this draft class, rivaled only by Sam Bachman and Gavin Williams, who will be discussed later on.  Petty’s heater is electric, as it resides in the mid to upper 90’s and has reportedly touched 102 MPH, which is insane considering that the New Jersey native just turned 18 in April.

Along with his power fastball, Petty features a wicked, sharp breaking slider that plays “really well off of his fastball” and is already seen as a plus secondary pitch.

The high schooler also features a changeup but it can be flat at times and will have to be improved upon if he wants to remain a starter down the road.  The biggest knock on Petty is undoubtedly his small stature, as he is listed at 6’2, 190 pounds and throws with quite a bit of effort in his delivery, which many evaluators believe will lead to arm problems in the future.  The velocity that Petty possesses is rare and is the reason why he is such a tantalizing prospect.  His size is an issue, but considering the fact that Petty is only 18, I believe that he can add onto his frame once he gets into a pro facility, which could keep him healthy enough to utilize his elite arm talent.

7. Andrew Painter – RHP Calvary Christian (FL)

Andrew Painter may be one of the more polished prep pitching prospects in this year’s class.

The right-hander features a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s that the Florida commit can throw with either a four-seam or two-seam grip.  To go along with his plus fastball, Painter possesses an above-average change-up and a curveball that has the ability to generate swings and misses from both left-handed and right-handed batters.  The Florida product also features a slider that sits in the mid 80’s and has shown flashes of being another plus pitch for the righty.  Painter has the potential to have a four-pitch mix.

Combining this with his excellent 6’7”, 225-pound build leaves me with no doubt that he will be a starter at the next level, and one with top of the rotation upside as well.

6. Benny Montgomery – OF Red Land (PA) 

Five tool prospects are highly sought after in the baseball community, and Benny Montgomery has the potential to turn into that kind of player.

Of the five, Montgomery’s best tool is undoubtedly his speed as he may even be the fastest player in this year’s class.  The Pennsylvania native has been clocked at 6.32 during the 60-yard dash and has received run grades as high as 80 from some evaluators.  Along with his elite speed, Montgomery possesses a fantastic arm that constantly registers speeds in the upper 90s from the outfield, which will make it an effective weapon at the next level.

At the plate, the Virginia commit has elite power, registering a max exit velocity of 103 MPH and consistently registered barrel speeds in the upper 80’s.  Montgomery is also 6’4″ with plenty of room to add to his frame, leaving me to believe that he is just scratching the surface of his power potential.  The sole below-average tool that the Virginia commit possesses is his hitting.  Montgomery has a swing that “lacks fluidity” and because of this, struggles to make consistent contact against high-level pitching.  The inconstant contact results are concerning and is the reason why he’s not considered a consensus top 10 pick in the scouting community.  I have a hard time believing that Montgomery will fall to the Blue Jays at pick 19 due to having 4 plus tools with the potential to add the fifth one down the road.  However, I’ve seen the Pennsylvania native drop to the late teens in multiple mock drafts, which is why I included him on my Blue Jays big board.

I would be thrilled if the Blue Jays get the opportunity to add Montgomery during the draft and would be ecstatic to see if he can reach his ceiling that may be the highest in the class.

5. Harry Ford C – North Cobb (GA)

Ford doesn’t offer the same five-tool upsides that Montgomery has the potential to provide, but his versatility and plus hit tool are why I find him such an intriguing prospect.

Ford is currently listed as a catcher, and a good one too, with the potential to stick behind the plate once he turns pro thanks to his plus arm and 1.81 pop time.  The Georgia native isn’t your average catcher though and is viewed as a plus athlete, with excellent twitch and speed, running a 6.5 second, 60-yard dash.  Ford’s athleticism gives evaluators the belief that the backstop could man another premium position on the diamond such as shortstop or center field if a team already possesses a quality catcher (like the Blue Jays) that would necessitate Ford moving off the position.

This versatility has drawn comparisons to Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, who came up as a catcher but transitioned to second base later in his career, where he would wind up winning a Gold Glove Award.  Along with his plus athleticism, Ford is viewed as a prospect that is going to hit for a high average at the next level, with a little bit of pop in his bat as well, and projects to hit in the upper .200’s with 20+ home run upside.

Harry Ford is another high schooler that would be a surprise to see available at 19, due to his plus athleticism, commitment to Georgia Tech, and hit tool.  There have been rumblings that the athletic backstop has a chance to sneak into the top 5, with Baltimore reportedly looking to go under slot again this draft.  I’ve also seen Ford fall in multiple mock drafts and was the Blue Jays’ pick in theScore’s most recent edition, which is why I have included him on this list and would be thrilled if the Blue Jays were given the opportunity to select such a unique athlete tonight.

4.Matt McLain – SS UCLA

Despite being selected in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft, Matt McLain decided to honor his commitment to UCLA and took his talents to the west coast.  McLain has improved every season at the plate with the Bruins and capped off his illustrious career with an exceptional 2021 season, slashing .333, .434, and .579, while walking as many times as he struck out in 47 games.

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McLain also showcased more power this past season, hitting nine long balls which more than doubled his prior career-high.  Along with his tremendous production at the dish, the UCLA product is a threat on the base paths, swiping nine bags in ten attempts last season, and is seen as someone who will be a consistent base stealer at the next level.  McLain was undoubtedly one of the better hitters in the country last season.  Despite this, I do question if his power will translate with a wood bat, as the California native is a little undersized and struggled to drive the ball in the Cape Cod League (which uses wood bats) back in 2019, posting a subpar .425 slugging percentage in 34 games.

Scouts have also questioned whether McLain has the arm to stick at shortstop, or if a move to second base may be needed down the road to aid in becoming a plus defender.  Despite the concerns about McLain’s power and arm, I believe the hit tool is too enticing to pass at pick 19 and would be willing to absorb those risks in order to get such a talented offensive player into the Blue Jays organization.

3. Gavin Williams – RHP East Carolina University

Gavin Williams was one of the best pitchers in the country this past season.

After primarily working out of the bullpen during his first three years at ECU, Williams got his first full look as a starter in 2021 and did not disappoint.  The right-hander had a fantastic year for the Pirates, posting a 1.98 ERA while striking out nearly 14 and a half batters per nine innings through 15 outings.  Williams’ stellar season earned him a spot on Baseball America’s All American team, which featured other top pitching prospects such as Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Doug Nikhazy.

The North Carolina native has a powerful arsenal.  Williams features a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90’s and even touched triple digits back when he was pitching in a relief role.  He combines his elite heater with a sharp slider that sits in the upper 80’s along with a slower curveball that has great depth.  Both breaking balls possess swing and miss upside at the next level, which I believe will allow Williams to stick as a starter long term.  The only potential knocks on the ECU product are his age and workload.  Williams is a senior and will turn 22 later this month making him one of the older players in this class, which will concern some teams who value age in a prospect.

Along with this, the right-hander has only worked one season as a starter and totaled a mere 81 ⅓ innings in that time span.  This has left some evaluators questioning if the hard-throwing righty will have a difficult time adjusting to pitching a full big league starter’s workload.

Personally, these concerns do not bother me at all.  I like Williams as a prospect so much that I have him ranked ahead of Kumar Rocker (Rocker is not on this list as he is going to go in the top 10 and will not be available when the Blue Jays make their selection), due to that fact he possesses a harder heater than the former Commodore and has a wider assortment of off-speed pitches.  Williams is a high floor and a high ceiling prospect.  At the bare minimum, I see the right-hander becoming a quality, hard-throwing middle relief pitcher, with the upside to turn into a top of the rotation arm.

2. Sam Bachman – RHP Miami (OH)

During his first two seasons in Miami (OH), Bachman was a quality starter for the Redhawks, posting a mid-three ERA in 19 outings during that time span.  The right-hander was able to increase his fastball velocity this past offseason, seeing it jump from the low to mid 90’s, and even touched triple digits this past fall.

This sudden increase in velocity has turned Bachman from a relatively unheard-of prospect into a legitimate top 15 talent.  The Indiana native is far from just a power arm as he is able to locate his heater extremely well, and also features an elite slider, giving scouts the impression that at the bare minimum, the right-hander has the tools to evolve into a quality relief pitcher at the next level.  Bachman’s ceiling will be determined by his ability to add a third pitch to his repertoire, in order for him to stick as a starter.  Bachman and Williams are super similar prospects.  I gave the Miami (OH) product the slight edge over Williams due to the fact that he has a better command of his heater and a more refined slider than either of Williams’ secondary pitches.

Despite this, I think that both arms have top of the rotation upside. I just feel that Bachman is a little more advanced at the current moment and feel that he has the ability to help the Blue Jays in the near future.

1. Colton Cowser – OF Sam Houston State

Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser may be the most polished position player in this year’s class.  Cowser has a sweet, left-handed swing with a refined approach where he uses the whole field and is able to drive the ball from foul line to foul line. The Texas native has always hit for a high average, slashing .354 during his time in Huntsville, but showcased more power this past season, mashing 16 long balls in just 55 games.

Cowser’s recent power surge has really rounded out his game and made him a complete hitter, who projects to hit for average and power at the next level.  Defensively, scouts are split on where Cowser will play once he turns pro.  The outfielder has plus speed, which has left some teams believing that he has the ability to stick in center field, but others worry about the Texas native’s lack of arm strength and wonder if a corner outfield spot may better suit the young outfielder.

The Blue Jays lack high-end outfield talent in their farm system.  Cowser would immediately become one of the team’s best outfield prospect while also providing the club a draft pick that could soar through the farm system due to how advanced of an offensive player he is.