Blue Jays: Draft Targets Final Edition: Position Players

The MLB Draft is less than a week away as it is set to begin this Sunday at 7pm EST.  With the draft right around the corner, I decided to put out my final Blue Jays draft target piece and highlight some prospects that the Jays could have their eyes on this weekend when they are on the clock at pick number 19.

If you missed the first two position player pieces or any of the three articles on the pitcher’s side, make sure you check them out so you have all the information you need prior to when the pick is made.  With that being said, let’s jump in and take a look at some potential future Blue Jays.

Colson Montgomery SS Southridge (IN) #25 On MLB Pipeline

The 2021 MLB Draft is set to feature a plethora of talented high school shortstops.  Though it is unlikely that the Blue Jays will have the opportunity to select one of the bigger names such as Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, or Kahlil Watson, the back half of the first round appears to be littered with other talented prep shortstops, leaving General Manager Ross Atkins with plenty of options if he decides to go in this direction.

Colson Montgomery is one of these prep shortstops and is a name that has flown up draft boards recently due to his advanced approach at the plate, and his power potential.

Montgomery is one of the most advanced prep hitters in this year’s class.  The Indiana native has a sweet left-handed swing, with the ability to hit to all parts of the field.  Montgomery’s approach at the dish is beyond his years.  He never gets too big and is willing to take what the pitcher gives him, which is rare to see at the high school level.  Combining his advanced approach with his excellent bat-to-ball skills has left most evaluators believing that Montgomery has the tools to hit for a high average once he turns pro.

Along with his approach and compact swing, Montgomery has great gap power, with the ability to consistently drive the ball to both left-center and right-center fields.  The Indiana commit isn’t viewed as a long ball threat at this point in his development, but scouts believe that once he matures and grows into his 6’4’ frame, the doubles he’s hitting now will start turning into home runs thanks to his quick hands and compact stroke.

The offensive upside is real but Montgomery does have some drawbacks, primarily on the defensive side of the ball.  The Southridge product is listed as a shortstop, but will more than likely outgrow the position down the road as he currently stands at 6’4” and weighs in at 190 lbs, with plenty of room to add onto his frame.  While a move to third base would suit Montgomery’s stature, he’s received below-average arm grades from multiple scouts and could struggle with the transition to the hot corner because of this.

Evaluators are torn on where they believe Montgomery will play once he turns pro.  Some think that he has the tools to stick at shortstop despite his size and develop into a player like Corey Seager, who has been able to become an everyday shortstop despite being a bit oversized for the position.  Others think that a move to the outfield may be in store, where Montgomery would be a below-average defender due to his lack of speed and would have to rely solely on his bat to bring value to a ball club.

Along with the question marks surrounding Montgomery’s future position, the high-schooler is also one of the older prep players in this year’s class, turning 20 next February.  This isn’t a huge concern for me, but some teams do value age when selecting a prospect and may feel more comfortable drafting someone who just turned 18 rather than a player who is already 19 and a half.

Colson Montgomery is going to hit at the next level.  If Atkins believes enough in the offensive upside and is willing to overlook the positional and age concerns, then the Indiana native could be a super intriguing, and high upside selection.  Montgomery would add a left-handed bat to an organization that lacks talent from that side of the dish and would become one of the higher-ranked offensive players in the Blue Jays system as a whole right away.

Izaac Pacheco SS Friendswood (TX) #30 On MLB Pipeline

Izaac Pacheco hails from Friendswood Texas, a suburb of Houston and about an hour away from where Blue Jays 2018 first-rounder Jordan Groshans played his high school games.  Pacheco and Groshans have a lot more in common than just a hometown, as both play a nearly identical brand of baseball and are viewed as similar prospects by many evaluators.

Both players have a lot of similarities to their games, but the biggest one comes on the defensive side of the ball.  Groshans and Pacheco are currently listed as shortstops but will more than likely see a move to third base during their time in the minor leagues due to their size and lack of athleticism.  Like Groshans, scouts believe that Pacheco could become an above-average defender at the hot corner, as the Texas native has soft hands and plus arm strength, which are tools that elite third baseman such as Nolan Arenado and Matt Chapman possess.

At the plate, Pacheco “offers more power from the left side than anyone in this draft class”.  The native Texan combines his plus size and elite bat speed to generate a lot of loud contact and is seen by scouts as someone with a 30+ home run upside.

Despite how much natural power Pacheco possesses, he often “chases home runs”, which has led to an uptick in strikeouts over the past year.  Selling out for the long ball has caused the A&M commit to get long in his swing, and is the primary reason why he has struggled against breaking balls out of the strike zone and elevated heaters recently.  Most evaluators believe that as Pacheco matures, “he will learn to trust his body more” which should naturally bring down his strikeout rate, and will allow him to fully tap into his offensive potential.

The Blue Jays have a lot of what Pacheco offers in their farm system.  They have highly touted prospects such as Orelvis Martinez, Kevin Smith, and the aforementioned Groshans, who have similar playing styles and fill a similar role that Pacheco projects into, so selecting the Texas native 19th overall may be a bit redundant.

Despite this, big league ball clubs should always be looking to draft the best player available.  If the Blue Jays fall in love with Pacheco’s raw power and feel that he is the best player on the board when they are on the clock, then the high schooler has to be the pick and the club will figure out where everyone fits into the lineup down the road.

The amount of raw power that Izaac Pacheco possesses from the left side of the plate is rare to find at the prep level.  The swing and miss issue is real, and in my opinion, is more likely to translate to pro ball than his power.

The Jays do have a fantastic player development system and were able to fix a similar issue in Groshans’ approach just a few years ago.  Because of this, I’m fully confident they can do the same with Pacheco if he is selected and will give him the best opportunity to reach his full offensive potential, which is as high as any prospect in this class.

Jay Allen OF John Carroll Catholic (FL) #33 On MLB Pipeline

The Blue Jays are in an interesting spot heading into the 2021 MLB Draft.  Not only do they have a team entering their competitive window,  but they also feature a loaded farm system, ranking third in all of baseball according to Keith Law of the Athletic.

Due to the immense amount of talent on both their big league roster and in their farm system, GM Ross Atkins may be in a position to swing for the fences when selecting at pick number 19, and take a shot on a player with superstar upside that just hasn’t been able to put it all together yet.

If the Blue Jays decided to go this route, then Florida’s Jay Allen should be at the top of their draft board due to the raw athleticism he possesses and the immense amount of potential he has displayed over the past few seasons.  Allen is a tremendous athlete.  He was a three sport star in high school and received legitimate interest from colleges to continue his career on the gridiron as a quarterback.  Allen ultimately committed to the University of Florida to play baseball, which is the sport that most scouts feel he has the highest ceiling in.

Allen’s elite athleticism translates into plus speed, where he has received run grades as high as 70 from home to first.  He uses his plus speed and high baseball IQ on both the base paths and in the field, where evaluators believe that Allen has the tools to not only man centre field but thrive in the position once he turns pro.

The Florida native’s bat is undoubtedly behind his legs and glove.  The right hander possesses an average hit tool at best and has struggled to make consistent contact against high caliber pitching on the summer circuit.  Allen will often get caught out on his front foot, which has caused a lot of weak contact to the left side of the infield and has really hindered him from displaying any kind of power.

Despite the mechanical issues, scouts do believe that there is plenty of untapped power in Allen’s game due to how twitchy of an athlete he is, and his projectable 6’2”, 190 lbs frame.  Getting Allen into a pro facility should help him iron out some of the kinks in his swing and add some extra muscles to his frame, which will hopefully allow him to tap into his raw power.

Jay Allen is going to be a high risk pick for the club that decides to gamble on his upside. We’ve seen the Jays draft players such as Anthony Alford and D.J Davis early on because of their raw athleticism, with the hopes of being able to improve their hit and power tools.  These selections didn’t pan out for the club which may scare fans away from wanting to take a player like Allen so high in the draft.

I will definitely be skeptical if the team decides to pull the trigger on Allen at pick 19.  I feel that there are more polished outfield prospects in this class such as Colton Cowser and Sal Frelick, along with prospects who are risky but provide more power potential such as Jud Fabian and Joshua Baez.

The Jays have sent a number of scouts to attend Allen’s games recently, so there appears to be some interest from the club, leading me to believe that there is a real chance that the Florida native could be donning a Blue Jays (minor league affiliate) jersey in the near future.

Atkins has done a fantastic job drafting early on during his time in Toronto, landing players such as Bo Bichette, Nate Pearson, Jordan Groshans, Alek Manoah, and Austin Martin within the first 50 picks in the last five years.  I wasn’t a fan of the Groshans pick immediately after it was made, and now he is widely considered a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.

If Atkins believes enough in Allen’s tools to use a top 20 pick on the Florida native, then even though I won’t love the selection, I’ll definitely trust the veteran GM’s judgement and will be excited to see what kind of player Allen is able to turn into in the Blue Jays organization.