Blue Jays are well set up for a big second half of the season

The best offence in baseball

As I alluded to already, the Blue Jays have an incredibly dangerous offence, and I’d argue that it’s the best lineup in baseball both at present, and looking ahead to the future.

When everyone is healthy, there really is no break whatsoever for opposing pitchers. Charlie Montoyo has the luxury of having potent 7th or 8th hitters on his card that would be good enough to hit in the middle of several team’s lineups. For the sake of a visual, just look at this nightmare for pitchers that have to square off against the Jays.

1- Semien- .289/.353/.548, 21 HR, 54 RBI, 81 games
2- Bichette- .287/.338/.479, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 81 games
3- Guerrero Jr.- .337/.440/.673, 27 HR, 69 RBI, 81 games
4- Hernandez- .299/.340/.482, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 62 games
5- Springer- .245/.383/.571, 5 HR, 10 RBI, *just 14 games*
6- Biggio- .236/.345/.382, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 59 games
7- Grichuk- .262/.291/.456, 21 HR, 54 RBI, 80 games
8- Gurriel Jr.- .259/.278/.416, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 73 games
9- McGuire- .293/.340/.394, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 37 games

I obviously didn’t highlight everything good that’s been happening with this lineup, but just looking at that 1-9 has to be intimidating for most pitchers to think about. In particular the top four have been absolutely devastating, hitting for power, average, and Semien and Bichette have both contributed double-digit stolen bases to boot.

Throw in the likes of the newly acquired Corey Dickerson and the Jays will have a strong left-handed hitter to compliment the bench, and if they decide to carry Alejandro Kirk on the MLB roster again then that gives them some right-handed punch too. Santiago Espinal continues to improve as a hitter as the utility man as well, and when this team is rolling the hitting gets contagious pretty much all around.

When you consider that the Jays haven’t had Springer around for very long at all, and that they could get more from guys like Biggio and Gurriel Jr. than they did in the first half, there’s a ton to like about this group. They are tied with the San Francisco Giants for 123 home runs as a team to lead the league, and with a team OPS of .784 they are behind only the Houston Astros who carry a .797 mark. Now that the Blue Jays have a healthy lineup, I don’t expect it to take long before they sit at the top of those rankings.

Front office ready to spend

As much as I’ve painted a picture that’s full of sunshine and roses for the offence, it’s well documented that the Blue Jays need some help for their pitching staff. Fortunately the front office looks like they’re ready to spend to make those improvements, and they should have plenty of trade pieces to get things done.

I was impressed with the trade that Ross Atkins made to bring in Corey Dickerson and Adam Cimber from the Marlins, and the latter has already made the bullpen better. That move was especially nice for the Blue Jays because they didn’t have to give up much at all in return, sending a pitching prospect in Andrew McInvale, and veteran Joe Panik back to the Marlins. In Panik’s case, he may soon have been a candidate to be designated for assignment anyway.

Cimber alone won’t be enough to make the difference for the bullpen, and I’m quite certain the front office is aware of that. Now that we’re getting closer to the trade deadline, I fully expect the Blue Jays to be among the busier teams looking for upgrades. In an ideal world they’ll be able to add another late-inning reliever to support Jordan Romano, and arguably another hurler for the middle innings.

They may not need that 3rd trade piece if they choose to improve the starting rotation as well. For example, let’s say they hypothetically traded for Jose Berrios of the Minnesota Twins and slotted him in as their number two starter. Then the rotation looks like this:

1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Berrios
3- Robbie Ray
4- Ross Stripling
5- Alek Manoah/Steven Matz

With another piece added near the top, the Jays could move one of their current starters to the bullpen to help for the rest of the year. Stripling has a lot of experience as a reliever, but he’s been very good over his last seven starts, and it’s hard to imagine him being the one to move at the moment. In my mind Matz would be the weakest link in this scenario, but as the season wears on it could make sense to use Manoah as a reliever simply for the sake of saving some innings for the young pitcher.

Any way you look at it, I believe the Blue Jays need at least two more pitchers to improve the staff enough to make the difference, and fortunately it sounds like the front office is already on the hunt.

Bullpen is getting healthier

Even if the Blue Jays don’t upgrade their bullpen for some reason, they should improve in the second half simply by getting some of their injured players back.

Rafael Dolis is getting close to returning to the team, and while this season has been a struggle for the right-hander, I believe he can help in a lower leverage role. The Blue Jays also had a positive sight with Ryan Borucki on the mound throwing a bullpen session on Saturday, and he would be a great option to get back for the late innings, especially against left-handed hitters.

Julian Merryweather is another big-time talent that offers a wild card for this bullpen. When he’s healthy he has the stuff to be a dominant late-inning arm, just as we saw during the 4.1 innings he threw in April. That said, he’s a pretty hard guy to rely on based on his injury history. Hopefully he’ll be able to change that story in the second half, and it sounds like he’s getting close to making a return to the mound.

On top of those three, A.J. Cole should be available later this summer, and it’s possible we could see a few other starters used as relievers late in the season such as Thomas Hatch, or maybe even Nate Pearson. In a perfect scenario the Blue Jays should have more than enough quality relievers to make up a solid bullpen, but obviously this season has been anything but perfect. Speaking of that, Tyler Chatwood is another bullpen option on the IL at the moment.

At 43-38, I believe there’s a solid argument to be made that with a healthier/better bullpen that the Blue Jays should be at least 49-32. If they can make those upgrades for the second half, that would make them 92-70 on the year. That might be a bit of a stretch, but I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility either.

The AL East is vulnerable

Baseball fans are pretty familiar with the idea of a “window of contention”, as it’s been a term we’ve heard several times throughout franchise history. One part of the formula for a window is having a quality roster, which is something that you can control. The other variable would be the quality of your competition, and the Jays have always had an uphill battle that way in the AL East.

It’s still possible that we see a four-team race in the division this year between the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees, but the standings have shifted quite a bit over the last few weeks. The Red Sox have a nice lead at 52-32 which gives them a 4.5 game advantage over the 2nd place Rays at 47-36. The Blue Jays are 7.5 back of the Red Sox and 3.0 behind the Rays, and the struggling Yankees have dropped to 41-40 and 9.5 back of the top of the standings.

More from Jays Journal

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

As much as I hate to admit it, the Red Sox are far better than I ever expected them to be, and they’re going to be tough to knock off from the top. That said, right now the season series is 5-4 in favour of the Red Sox, which leaves them 10 more head to head games to play. If the Blue Jays want a chance at winning the division, they’re going to need to dominate those matchups in particular. And even if I just admitted that they’re better than I thought, I still expect the Sox to come back to earth in the second half, and their rotation is finally showing some cracks in that direction.

As for Rays and Yankees, both teams have been struggling of late, with the Rays just 4-6 over their last 10, and the Yankees only 3-7. I fully expect the Rays to figure things out sooner than later, but I’m not so sure about the Yankees anymore. It seems almost unthinkable for the Bronx Bombers, but if they struggle into the All-Star break they could even become sellers.

Whatever happens, the Blue Jays are always going to have a difficult division to play in, and the 2021 season is no different. That said, if the Yankees fall out of the race as I expect them to, and the Rays and Red Sox regress a bit in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays are pushing for the division instead of just a Wild Card spot.

Either way, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about what’s ahead for the Blue Jays in the second half, and with a few extra pieces, they might even go from good to great.