Blue Jays: Trade Targets From Teams Already Out of Playoff Contention

According to FanGraphs, nine out of the thirty major league franchises have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs in 2021. Five teams are already 16.0 games back or worse in their division in games through July 1st: Baltimore, Texas, Pittsburgh, Colorado and Arizona. If we include the teams already 11 games or more back in the Wild Card standings, that adds Detroit, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Miami. These teams should all be sellers this month; which trade targets might the Blue Jays be interested in?

Jays Journal contributors have already taken in-depth looks at what the Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks might have to offer the Blue Jays in trades ahead of the July 30th trade deadline (TDL). The D-Backs already made a minor trade with the Yankees, and multiple teams are now said to be interested in 3B Eduardo Escobar. But given it’s now July, and also the fact that Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins has already pulled off a decent trade to acquire OF Corey Dickerson and RHP Adam Cimber from Miami, which trade targets are most interesting from these teams that have already dropped out of contention?

Which trade targets should the Blue Jays be focused on from the teams already out of playoff contention?

According to General Manager Ross Atkins, the front office remains focused on pitching and defensive upgrades. Let’s assume that means more help for the beleaguered bullpen, and in terms of defensive upgrades, we can probably safely guess that means third base and the left side of the diamond in general given poor outs above-average numbers from Cavan Biggio (-7, and -2 defensive runs saved (DRS) at 3B), Bo Bichette (-5, 12 errors and multiple acrobatic catches at 1B by first-time All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (-6)?

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are already twenty games out of a Wild Card spot and are expected to reload with prospects ahead of the coming trade deadline.

In terms of potential trade targets for the Blue Jays, 3B Maikel Franco is a pending free agent after the season and could be available as a rental. He’s owed another $400,000 or so for 2021 with a $200,000 incentive bonus if he reaches 400 plate appearances ( 309 PAs through games as of July 1st). His 3B defense would not be an improvement over Biggio or Santiago Espinal at an OAA of -6 and DRS of -8. So likely a pass.

Starter Matt Harvey will also be an unrestricted free agent after the season and is owed ~$500,000 this year. However, at 3-9 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP through 17 starts and 72.1 innings, he does not appear to be an upgrade over the current Blue Jays rotation. Pass. Switch-hitting SS Freddy Galvis could be of interest but is currently injured.

This leaves a lot of interesting pre-arbitration eligible relievers, including Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, rookie Taylor Wells, and Dillon Tate. Both Fry and Scott will be arbitration-eligible in 2022, while Sulser and Tate can go to arbitration in 2023.

Lefty Scott might be a great set-up complement for the Blue Jays bullpen with a 2.93 ERA over 30.2 innings with 48 strikeouts. He has walked 26 batters in those innings. He also has the third-lowest contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts divided by at-bats) in the majors at 60.3%, trailing only Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs and Raisel Iglesias of the Angels.

He’s got swing-and-miss stuff when he throws strikes and would be a clear upgrade over Tyler Chatwood, Rafael Dolis, and Carl Edwards Jr. His four-seam fastball, which he throws 51% of the time, averages 97mph, and he complements that with a wipeout 89mph slider that he uses 47% of the time. He’s elite on fastball spin & velocity, hard hit%, and barrel%. Given he’ll be due a large raise for 2022, could the Blue Jays pry him away for some prospects?  They’d control the soon-to-be 27-year old through the 2024 season.

Similarly, lefty Paul Fry is arbitration-eligible after this season and would be under control through 2024. He has a 3.52 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 30.2 innings this season with 41 strikeouts against only 15 walks. He also sports a stellar hard hit%, barrel%, and strikeout metrics.

Those seem to be qualities that Ross Atkins likes as per his comments on Adam Cimber.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have been playing better of late but are still eleven games back in the Wild Card standings. Talk out of Detroit suggests pending free agent infielder Jonathan Schoop, reliever José Cisnero, switch-hitting LF Robbie Grossman (signed through 2022), closer Michael Fulmer, and starter Matt Boyd could all be made available. While Schoop is hot, do the Blue Jays really need a RHH rental at 1B and 2B? Likely not.

While Fullmer and Boyd are both currently on the 10-day IL, 32-year-old righty Cisnero will be arbitration-eligible in 2022 and has been solid in late-inning relief with a 2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.87 fielding-independent pitching (FIP), and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings against 3.1 walks over 35 innings. He’s elite on average exit velocity, hard hit%, and fastball velocity.

Texas Rangers

The consensus trade targets on the cellar dwelling Rangers are closer Ian Kennedy and starter Kyle Gibson, who leads all AL starters with a 2.00 ERA and 224 ERA+.

Gibson is under control through 2022 and is owed approximately ~$14 million more on his contract, including bonuses. He wouldn’t be cheap in terms of acquisition cost, but he would  immediately slot in as a top of the rotation starter for the Jays and bump Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, and Alek Manoah in to more complementary roles in 2021. He’s an elite pitcher, featuring a 93mph fastball and an off-speed repertoire ranging from a 79mph curve and 83mph slider to  and 85mph changeup and an 89mph cutter. In terms of 3B targets, Charlie Culbertson is a free agent after the season, but isn’t an upgrade over Biggio and Espinal. Pass.

Kennedy converted to a relief role in 2019 with the Royals and has provided huge value to the Rangers this season after signing a minor league deal in February, with 14 saves and a 2.96 ERA in 27.1 high leverage innings. The 36 year old righty is still owed about half of his $2.15 million salary this year, but would be an attractive high leverage relief rental to boost the backend of the Jays’ bullpen. He features a 94mph fastball about 82% of the time with an 87mph changeup on about 9% of his pitches, although batters tend to hit him hard.

Conclusion

All of the teams above should be sellers this month given they’ve fallen out of playoff contention.

According to Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, the organization is targeting pitching and defensive upgrades.  If Atkins were to add switch hitting 3B Eduardo Escobar from the Diamondbacks, set-up men like Tanner Scott from the Orioles and José Cisnero from the Tigers, plus a closer to complement Jordan Romero like Richard Rodriguez from the Pirates or Ian Kennedy from the Rangers, and a starter like Kyle Gibson from Texas and/or Jon Gray from Colorado, Blue Jays fans would likely be over the moon.

It would be a strong vote of confidence in the young core and just how competitive they’ve been, despite nine blown saves and a major league worst 14 bullpen losses since May 10th. The fact the teams is only 5.0 games back in the Wild Card race after all of that is a testament to their grit and determination.

With three All-Star starters, two MVP candidates, and multiple Silver Slugger candidates, these players deserve the chance to make a deep push playing meaningful baseball in to October.

With the return of CF George Springer, and the pending returns of starter Thomas Hatch and catcher Alejandro Kirk as well as high leverage relievers Ryan Borucki and Julian Merryweather, internal reinforcements are coming. But bullpen upgrades over the likes of Chatwood, Dolis and Edwards Jr., are clearly available. Let’s hope the front office will continue to be agreesive in upgrading the MLB talent on this roster.