Sticky Situation: How will the Blue Jays adjust to the new normal?

Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball have decided that now is the time to deal with baseball’s sticky little secret, meaning the Blue Jays, their AL East rivals, and the rest of the league’s pitchers will suddenly have to unlearn the deep-rooted practice of doctoring the baseball.

According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic, around 75 – 100% of pitchers in MLB use some sort of grip enhancer to increase the spin on the baseball. RPM (revolutions per minute) is a highly sought-after trait in a pitcher, a number that can be significantly increased with the help of foreign substances. In the last few years spin rate has skyrocketed across the league in large part because of the shift from grip enhancers like pine tar, sunscreen and rosin to industrial-type substances like Pelican Grip and Spider Tack, triggering an offensive drought in the sport. While the Blue Jays offence doesn’t seem too affected by the league-wide RPM jumps (1st in the league in homers, 2nd in slugging % and OPS), they also have a bullpen that has pitched horrendously over the last three weeks that could be affected by the enforcement of the foreign substance rule.

One arm in the Jays bullpen, in particular, someone who has struggled mightily since the first minor leaguers were suspended for the use of foreign substances in early June, could very well have been benefitting from grip enhancers earlier this season: Tyler Chatwood. In Chatwood’s last three outings, his 4-seam has dropped an unbelievable 291 RPM from his season average. That’s a bigger drop than AL East rival Gerrit Cole who saw his 4 -seam drop by 245 RPM from his season average in his most recent outing.

Now it’s important to point out that RPM data is not an all-encompassing indication of whether or not a pitcher is using some sort of substance, but fastball spin specifically is borderline impossible to increase by 200-300 RPM without a grip enhancer.

Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball have decided that now is the time to deal with baseball’s sticky little secret, meaning the Blue Jays, their AL East rivals, and the rest of the league’s pitchers will suddenly have to unlearn the deep-rooted practice of doctoring the baseball.

Trevor Bauer, a polarizing figure at the centre of the foreign substance debate, wrote this in the player’s tribune about increasing fastball RPM:

“I’ve been chasing spin rate since 2012. For eight years I’ve been trying to figure out how to increase the spin on my fastball because I’d identified it way back then as such a massive advantage. I knew that if I could learn to increase it through training and technique, it would be

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huge. But eight years later, I haven’t found any other way except using foreign substances”.

To single out Chatwood would be unfair. Again, almost all pitchers prior to this sudden enforcement of the foreign substance rule were using something to get a better grip on the baseball. The AL East teams appear to have been using grip enhancers disproportionately to increase spin rate this season compared to teams in other divisions. The five American League East teams account for five of the top eight highest 4-seam fastball RPM jumps between 2020 and 2021 prior to the enforcement of the substance ban. Again, this isn’t to say that RPM jumps are concrete evidence of cheating, there is of course turnover, offseason development, and other factors that drive spin rate increases, but the numbers do tell a story.

Notably, Yankees Aroldis Chapman and Gerrit Cole have both posted fastball spin rates far below their season averages since the league’s crackdown, with Cole posting his lowest 4-seam RPM since 2017 in his start on June 22nd against Kansas City. Garrett Richards of the Red Sox had a 255 RPM drop on his fastball and an absurd 505 RPM drop on his curveball in his last outing on the 23rd, a start in which he only lasted 1.2 innings, walking four and giving up four earned runs. Tyler Glasnow, who recently went on the IL with a partial UCL tear that will more than likely require Tommy John surgery, blamed the league’s decision to police foreign substances in the middle of a season for his injury.

The bottom line is that a lot of pitchers are going to have to relearn how to throw the baseball without sticky stuff, particularly in the AL East. The data ultimately shows that Blue Jays pitchers, for the most part, shouldn’t be too affected by this change. The offence on the other hand could very well benefit from pitchers in the East struggling to unlearn a practice that is almost as old as the game itself.

Major League Baseball’s sudden decision to police this rule was a reaction to bad press – the league simply couldn’t afford to have another cheating scandal dominate the news cycle just two years removed from the Houston Astros sign-stealing debacle. The reality is this rule should have been enforced a long time ago, but just as we saw in the steroid era, and again with sign stealing, the league only addresses cheating when it becomes a public relations nightmare.

This sticky situation is one of the more intriguing storylines to watch play out over the course of the season and will inevitably have its fair share of fireworks. Hopefully, the Blue Jays can take advantage of the new, level playing field and rattle off enough wins to get back in the playoff picture.