Blue Jays: How much the story can change in just 60 games

One of the best parts of offseason is dreaming on projections, especially when your favourite team has high-end potential. For Blue Jays fans, it was hard not to get excited about the team’s chances in 2021, especially after a return to the playoffs in 2020 for the talented young roster.

Entering a fresh season and one that would be the typical 162 games, there were plenty of expectations for the Blue Jays this year because of that young core, but also because the front office spent more than most of the league in free agency by signing the likes of George Springer, Marcus Semien, and more. Most baseball pundits projected them to have one of the better offences in baseball, and that the pitching staff would be the weakness.

That’s turned out to be true to a certain extent, but there have been a lot of variables at play, especially the health of the pitchers, especially in the bullpen. That said, there have been plenty of pleasant surprises as well, and if the Jays can ever get healthy in that department they might have a pretty impressive group.

Looking at the 26-man roster, one thing that stands out to me that is that the overall results have been pretty close to what we might have expected, but several individual performances have been much different than projected. In some cases that’s obviously been for the better, and in others there have been some major disappointments.

The good news is that the Jays still have 102 games left to write the narrative of their 2021 season as a team. Individually, I’m fascinated by how much the story has changed for several Blue Jays.

Allow me to explain what I mean.

How the story has changed for the worse

Looking back to the spring, there were several pieces to the equation that just haven’t been able to contribute much so far this season. In some cases that story should eventually reverse course, such as when George Springer can FINALLY get healthy and truly join his new team, but in others the narrative may have a more permanent effect.

The first player that comes to mind in this category for me would be Cavan Biggio, who is currently working his way from a neck issue that landed him on the Injured List. The 26-year-old entered the year in the conversation as one of the ideal candidates to hit near the top of the lineup. These days there are some folks that would argue that they’d be better using him as a utility player off the bench.

Prior to the injury Biggio had struggled to a slash line of .205/.315/.315 with just three home runs, three doubles, and 11 RBI. In addition to not being his typical on-base machine self at the plate, Biggio struggled with the transition to playing third base on a full-time basis, making six errors in the early going. He still has plenty of time to change the narrative about his future, but he feels a lot more expendable than he did a few months ago, and that definitely qualifies as an unexpected change.

Speaking of players that have fallen out of favour with the Blue Jays, Rowdy Tellez is another that fits that description. For what it’s worth, I thought Tellez would firmly establish himself as a part of this young core in 2021, and he’s done anything but thus far. The lefty slugger has slashed just .215/.275/.339 with only three home runs and six RBI across 121 at-bats. As things stand, Tellez may find himself on the outside looking in for playing time once Springer can make his way back.

Third on my list would be the excitement around Nate Pearson, who unfortunately has only made one MLB appearance thus far. Fans will be encouraged to hear that he had a great outing in Triple-A on Thursday night, but it’s been a disappointing start to the year for the hard-throwing right-hander, someone that many of us expected would factor heavily into the top half of the rotation. He’s battled a few injuries and some mechanical adjustments, and right now he’s just not ready to pitch at the highest level. Hopefully that will change sooner than later, but he was even passed by Alek Manoah on the latest update to Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. I didn’t see that one coming a few months ago.

I could make this list a lot longer, but the last name I’ll throw into the “changed for the worse” category would be Danny Jansen. To be fair, I don’t know that anyone thought Jansen would be a star in 2021, myself included. That said, he has to hit better than .157/.248/.278 if he wants to keep his starting job. That discussion is on hold now that he’s landed on the IL with a hamstring strain, but there’s no doubt that Jansen has lost some of the grip on his starting role.

How the story has changed for the better

There may be a few disappointments on this roster so far, but there are also some pleasant and exciting surprises.

I’ll begin by talking about the American League Player of the Month in Marcus Semien, who the Blue Jays have been getting incredible production from thus far. He’s now slashing .289/.357/.512 with 13 home runs, 13 doubles, 33 RBI, and eight stolen bases. He’s also made a smooth transition to second base and has provided above-average defence at a new infield position. As a player that ended up signing a one-year deal in order to re-establish his value, I would think he’s done just that, and should have a lineup of suitors with multi-year offers this offseason.

The second “for the better” player I’d like to highlight is Robbie Ray, who was the first person the Blue Jays brought back last winter. It turns out they knew what they were doing, as the southpaw has been among the best starters in the American League thus far. His long battle with control hasn’t been an issue at all this year, and with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 11 starts and 64.1 innings, it’s hard to imagine where this team would be without him.

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Third on my list is the emergence of Randal Grichuk as a must-start player on the roster. As I mentioned earlier when talking about Tellez, there was a time when it looked like there could be a battle for playing time, likely coming down to the two sluggers. Instead, Grichuk has been playing full-time in Springer’s absence and has provided a crucial contribution to the team through the first 60 games. There were fans calling for him to be traded over the offseason, but you don’t hear that discussion any more. Suddenly his contract looks like a more than fair rate for a player that brings so much to the table, and that’s a big improvement on the discussion from a year or so ago.

Last but not least, we can’t finish this discussion off without talking about the emergence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP award. We all knew and dreamed of his potential, but I don’t think many people predicted that he’d take three steps forward in 2021. Instead of just getting in better shape and finding a way to contribute, Vlad Jr. has been arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball so far this year.

The best part is that his success has been balanced throughout the entire schedule, and he’s beating opposing pitchers in whatever way is necessary. Whether that’s with the long ball, hitting a single the other way, or simply taking a walk and leaving the work for Teoscar Hernandez (who has been great too), Guerrero looks like he’s matured five years over the last six months. He’s also become an above-average defender at first base, and really seems to have embraced his role there.

In all the Blue Jays have been pretty much what a lot of expected, with arguably a bit of disappointment in the mix. Individually there are all kinds of stories, and with 102 games left, it’ll be interesting to see who can change theirs for the better, and which ones get worse. Hopefully it all adds up to a team that can find a way to return to the postseason, one way or another.