Blue Jays: Looking ahead to potential trade partners

We might not yet know the players that could be available to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline this summer, but we’re starting to get an idea of which teams might sell.

Of course, a lot could change before the trade deadline at the end of July, but now that we’re more than 50 games into the regular season teams are starting to show whether or not they’re going to be part of the playoff race this summer. We have to remember teams like the 2019 Washington Nationals that started 19-31 only to turn things around and eventually take home the World Series crown, however, those anomaly’s are few and far between though.

With that in mind, it’s probably time for teams like the Blue Jays to start paying attention to those that are falling out of the playoff race at this early stage. That list of teams could certainly expand in another month or so, but I’m sure there are already a handful of front offices preparing to sell in hopes of furthering their own rebuilding efforts.

The Blue Jays could have a few areas to address ahead of the stretch run, with a central focus on reinforcing the pitching staff. That could be in the rotation, bullpen, or both, and might be the area that Ross Atkins waits the longest to address. With the way that pitchers have dropped like flies for the Blue Jays so far this year, they may prefer to wait to see how many of their own arms are going to be healthy by mid-late summer before making those decisions.

Even then, there’s an argument for looking for upgrades at catcher and maybe at third base as well. The Blue Jays will have to improve their standing as better than the 4th place team in the AL east to justify being aggressive on the trade market, but they’re not far out of the race, and there is still plenty of time.

With that in mind, which teams might be ready to talk trade, and who might they have that could improve the Blue Jays?

Diamondbacks

One of the more disappointing teams in baseball this year has been the Arizona Diamondbacks. There were always going to be holes in their roster, but the D-backs had intentions of competing for a playoff spot this year and not much has gone their way.

That said, they have a few players that could be very interesting to the Blue Jays, especially in their starting rotation. I don’t know that the Jays would have any interest in taking over Madison Bumgarner’s contract, but I’m sure they’d be interested in a couple other starters from Arizona’s rotation.

Zac Gallen is currently on the Injured List, but if he’s able to make a healthy return to the mound before the end of July then Arizona may want to consider shopping him a bit. All he’s done since his debut in 2019 is post a 2.82 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP over his first 32 career starts, quietly becoming one of the better starters in the National League. Why would the D-backs consider trading a guy like that? They probably won’t with four years remaining before he becomes a free agent, but he would be the type of big ticket item the Blue Jays might pay a premium for, as long as his arm injury doesn’t turn out to be serious.

Other than Gallen, there are two or three players that could make sense for the Blue Jays later on. Someone like Eduardo Escobar might give them the steady presence at third base that they arguably need, and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. They might also find a use for a veteran reliever with late-inning experience like Joakim Soria, or maybe an veteran catcher like Stephen Vogt, although he hasn’t been hitting much this year.

We’ll see where the 18-34 Diamondbacks are sitting in another month or so, but chances are they’re going to be sellers, and one team worth keeping in touch with.

Twins

When I said the Diamondbacks were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this year, I had to hold back from saying THE biggest. That title likely belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

They’ve been one of the better teams in the American League for a number of years now, and were expected to be back in the playoff mix again this year. That hasn’t happened at all, and right now the Twins are sitting fourth in their division at just 21-30 and they’re already 10.0 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central lead.

Unless their fortunes change in a hurry, they might be a team that Ross Atkins is calling on a regular basis. In particular, I could see the Blue Jays having a lot of interest in a pair of veteran starting pitchers in Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios.

Maeda might be tough to pry from the Twins, as he still has two years remaining on his current bargain of a contract. He’s struggled to a 5.27 ERA and a 1.477 WHIP over his first nine starts this season, but he has a long enough track record of success that banking on a bounce-back would make sense. It’ll come down to price, and likely how he performs over the month of June, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Twins could float him to potential trade suitors.

As for Berrios, he has just one more year on his current deal and will be a free agent after the 2022 season. That timeline might work quite well for the Blue Jays, especially as they see the emergence of Alek Manoah, who will hopefully be joined by Nate Pearson at some point as the future faces of the rotation. A guy like Berrios would work very well sliding in between Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray, and would give the Blue Jays a more formidable playoff rotation for this year, and next. The right-hander has been one of the lone “bright spots” for the Twins this year, with a 3.67 ERA and 1.154 WHIP over his first nine starts. He makes 5.6 million this season and will be arbitration eligible for the 3rd time this offseason.

It’s a shame that Josh Donaldson has two years and 42 million on his deal after this season, or he could be another fun veteran to pursue for a reunion. Instead, the Jays might have some interest in relievers like Alex Colome or Hansel Robles depending on how they’re throwing a month from now. If they’re looking for more “depth” options for the rotation, the Twins will likely be selling familiar faces like Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ, although I’m not sure either offers an upgrade at this point.

The Twins could turn things around and change the conversation, but more likely they’re going to be sellers this summer, and one of the Blue Jays should keep an eye on.

Reds

One of the more popular teams to connect the Blue Jays with over the offseason was the Cincinnati Reds. Now that they’ve started out just 22-28 and are sitting 4th in the NL Central, I fully expect the rumour mill to bring the two clubs together again this summer.

The same theme applies with the Reds as it has with most of the clubs I’ve already talked about, and it all begins with starting pitching. Despite the fact that he’s had a very rough go of things so far in 2021, the biggest name that will float around will be Luis Castillo.

Assuming the right-hander can get things back on track at some point, he profiles as one of the top-tier starters in the game, and an exciting arm to pair with Ryu at the top of the rotation. However, things don’t look all that enticing over his first 10 starts, as he’s currently carrying a 7.67 ERA and an ugly 1.796 WHIP. He’s been a bit better of late than he was to begin the year, but he’ll be a tough player to determine a value on if the Reds decide to move him. He has two years of arbitration eligibility left after this season, and makes 4.2 million this year. Having said all of that, he’s one arm that I’d be happy to see the Blue Jays gamble on.

Another intriguing option that the Blue Jays have looked at in the past would be Sonny Gray. The 31-year-old started the year on the IL, but has come back and looked pretty good for the Reds so far, posting a 3.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. Gray would come with the added bonus of two more years of contract control, as he’s scheduled to make 10 million in 2022 and has a club option for 12 million in 2023 that should be a no-brainer.

If the Blue Jays end up being interesting in an upgrade at third base, the Reds could be a fit for that as well. Eugenio Suarez is someone I’m sure the Reds would love to get off their books, and could be a player that would help bring the cost down for Castillo or Gray if a bigger trade package idea hit the table. Suarez will still make at least 33 million over the next three seasons, but he has been an All-Star as recently as 2018, hit 49 home runs in 2019, and is still just 29 years old.

Another option to help bring the trade cost down could be Mike Moustakas, who still has 34 million and two years guaranteed on his deal after 2021. The 32 year old has struggled a bit this season as well, but he is a 3x All-Star that can play first, second, and third base, and might be a nice solution for the hot corner, especially with a left-handed bat.

Having said all of that, I doubt the Blue Jays are interested in taking on Moustakas or Suarez’s contract’s unless they have to in order to get Gray or Castillo. Even then, it might not be worth it depending on what they plan to do this offseason, or even with other moves this winter. The Reds could be one of the more active teams on the trade market this summer, and depending on how they want to proceed, there could be a match here.

Nationals

I have a feeling that I’ll eventually be able to add more teams to the potential trade partner list in a month or so, and that includes the Brewers, Phillies, and possibly the Giants (I don’t think they’ll last with the Dodgers and Padres). For now though, the last team that I have on the immediate radar is the Washington Nationals.

Again, I realize they’re the team that made the historic comeback in 2019, but I don’t think they have the same magic in the tank in 2021, and the circumstances are a lot different.

The thing that the Nationals have going for them is they have a few key pieces that could keep them competitive for a long time, starting with Juan Soto. That might allow them to sell some valuable veterans and re-tool a bit on the fly with on eye on competing again in 2022. If that’s the case, the Blue Jays should be very interested, and it starts with the expiring contract of Max Scherzer.

The 36-year-old would be the dream candidate to bring to the Blue Jays this summer, and would give them an intimidating duo at the top of the rotation heading into the playoffs. He’s a three-time Cy Young Award winner, and a playoff tested giant of the game that would immediately improve the Jays chances in any playoff series. Trading for him now might also give Atkins a leg up on trying to sign the future Hall of Famer this winter, which I hope is something that’s under strong consideration, even if there should be plenty of suitors.

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Stephen Strasbourg and Patrick Corbin’s contracts would take them off the list of feasible candidates, but that won’t be the case for the Nationals closer in Brad Hand, who is working on a one year, 10.5 million dollar pact in 2021. The 31-year-old hasn’t been dominant this year by any means, but his late-inning experience could prove to very valuable, especially if the top options currently on the Blue Jays roster can’t stay or get healthy for later in the year.

In addition to the two veteran arms, I’d be curious to see what the Nationals would want for the expiring contract of Starlin Castro. He hasn’t done anything to write home about in 2021, but he’s been an underrated contributor throughout his career, and probably wouldn’t cost a lot in a swap. He’d provide steadier defence at the hot corner than what we’ve seen from Cavan Biggio this year, and it would allow the Jays to use Biggio in more of a super-utility role.

Last not but least, I’d be curious to see if there was a way to get Yan Gomes included in a trade package somehow. The former Blue Jay isn’t flashy, but he would provide a big offensive upgrade over what we’ve seen from Danny Jansen and the rest of the catchers in 2021, and he’s a receiver with playoff experience on his resume. Like many of the Nationals’ veterans, Gomes is playing on an expiring contract, and one that pays him just six million.

As you can see, there are plenty of options for Ross Atkins and company to consider, and timing might be everything in 2021, both in terms of the players that could be available, and when and where the Blue Jays could use the boost the most.