Blue Jays: It’s early, but I’ll still admit that I was wrong

Ok Mr. Matz, I take it back

One of the more confusing moves the Blue Jays made over the winter was trading for Steven Matz, and I’ll still say that even if it’s worked out beautifully so far. The 29-year-old was downright awful for the Mets last year when he posted a 9.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP over nine appearances that included six starts. The Jays also agreed to take on his full 5.2 million dollar salary for 2021 before he becomes a free agent at the end of the year, seemingly using up some valuable budget at a time when there were still talented free agents available.

And yet, Matz has made me eat my foot and try save room for the second one. The southpaw has been fantastic over his first four starts as a Blue Jay, leading the majors with four wins and posting a 2.31 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over his first 23.1 innings. He’s throwing harder than ever, locating with his fastball and his change-up, and making AL hitters look bad in the process.

Even if the former Met can’t keep up this level of production, which will likely be the case, he’s proving himself to be a valuable veteran starter in an otherwise questionable group. The Jays badly need some sort of stability behind Hyun Jin Ryu, and so far Matz has been filling that role, and Robbie Ray has looked good coming back from the Injured List as well. I’ll admit that I didn’t see it coming, and even told my friends on the “Bat Flips and Maple Dips” podcast that I’d come back in May to talk about it again. I’ll be singing a different tune now.

The Blue Jays obviously saw something in the left-hander, and Pete Walker has been able to work his magic in maximizing the value of yet another southpaw. I know it’s only been four starts, but Matz has been a treat to watch, and he’s completely changed my mind about his value to the Blue Jays.

There’s still a need for Tanner Roark

Despite the fact that he’s made a relatively successful transition to the bullpen so far, I was wrong about the Blue Jays still needing to hang on to Tanner Roark for a while longer.

I say that both because the right-hander no longer looks like an effective big league pitcher, and because the Blue Jays have a lot of talented depth in their system. The pitching staff has been a revolving door, and yet they’ve been one of the most effective groups in baseball. And with the emergence of a few other weapons in the bullpen, I can’t see Roark’s tenure with the Jays lasting much longer.

Both Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Romano have already returned, and a Emergency leave for Roark might have even saved him from being designated for assignment already. The Jays have juggled things around to make room so far, but they’ll have to continue the act when Ross Stripling and Nate Pearson can re-join the team as well.

When that happens, or maybe even before, it will be time for the Blue Jays to admit that you can’t win ’em all, and that signing Roark will turn out to be one of Ross Atkins’ worst decisions as the GM in Toronto. The thinking was sound at the time, as the Jays wanted a reliable veteran to bring some stability and eat some innings for the rotation, but unfortunately the former Washington National’s production fell off a cliff after signing his new deal.

Like they did with Shun Yamaguchi over the winter, sometimes you just have to cut your losses.

Who will sit when everyone’s healthy?

One of the more exciting debates of the winter was about how the Blue Jays would sort out the playing time with a healthy roster, and also the best way to maximize production from the lineup.

Since Springer has yet to make his Blue Jays debut it really hasn’t been an issue so far, but we might be finally reaching a point where Charlie Montoyo will have all of his weapons at his disposal. A month ago, I believed the player that would suffer the most when that happened would be Randal Grichuk, but I’m no longer so sure that’s the case.

With Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. the Blue Jays have a fully stocked outfield picture without Grichuk, which was why many people believed he might be traded over the winter. With the benefit of hindsight it’s a good thing that he wasn’t moved, as he’s been a key contributor through the first 20 games and has covered for Springer’s absence in centre field.

My belief was that the battle for at-bats would ultimately come down to Grichuk vs. Rowdy Tellez, who could act as the primary designated hitter, or sit in favour of Hernandez with Grichuk bringing an upgrade to the outfield defence. That may still turn out to be a key battle, but at the moment it might be Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who could see a reduction in playing time, or possibly Hernandez as well if he can’t return at full strength from a positive Covid test.

It’s hard to say how it’ll work out, but what I do know is that Grichuk has shown that he still deserves to be playing every day, and my guess is that will continue one way or another, even with a healthy roster.

Biggio can handle third

I was pretty excited when the Blue Jays signed Marcus Semien, and I believed that his addition would help improve the overall defence from the infield. While the former Oakland A has done his part, unfortunately the left side of the infield has been in shambles thus far.

Bo Bichette has had his fair share of struggles, but the greater source of concern has to be Cavan Biggio at this point. I wrote about how it looks like he’s developed a case of the “yips” the other day, and he made another key error during Saturday’s loss to Tampa Bay. Prior to the season I had some mild concerns about the strength of his throwing arm from the hot corner, but I didn’t see this coming at all.

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Montoyo has already started to react by giving Biggio a pair of starts in the outfield and a break from third base, but that option will be fairly limited once Springer and Hernandez return next week. There’s always the option to move him back to second base and ask Semien to play third, or in a more drastic and potentially disastrous idea, maybe Biggio could move to left and Gurriel Jr. could try to return to the infield.

One way or another the Blue Jays are going to have to find a solution, and it might be as simple as moving Biggio to more or a utility role starting Santiago Espinal and/or Joe Panik a little more regularly at third. Ideally Biggio would at least serviceable when he starts there, but lately it’s looking like that might be an option that needs to come off the table, at least for the time being.

I really didn’t see this coming, especially from a young player that has displayed so much poise in the early stages of his MLB career. Prior to this year, Biggio performed well regardless of where he was playing, but this season has been a different story. We’re only 20 games in so there’s obviously time for that story to change, but so far it’s been a much bigger issue than I would have ever feared.

I didn’t completely whiff on my predictions this year, as I did pick Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to have a big year at least. However, I do have to admit that I was wrong about several expectations I had made for this season.