Blue Jays: Vlad Jr. should decline a HR derby offer in 2021

It might be a little early to think about for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays, but I hope they’re prepared to skip the home run derby in 2021 if he’s invited.

Why am I already thinking about this? That’s a multi-layered answer, but the biggest reason would be because the topic came up after Pete Alonso of the New York Mets was asked about defending his title in 2021 after the event was cancelled last year. The Colorado Rockies will host this season’s All-Star festivities, and Coors Field has long been known as a home run haven. With that in mind, when Alonso was asked if he wants to defend his derby title from 2019, he quickly told reporters that he’s all in.

For those that remember, a 20-year-old Vlad Guerrero Jr. was his biggest competition that year, as the kid put on an absolute show during his rookie season. Alonso ultimately prevailed, but the two youngsters brought more excitement to the event than we’ve seen in a while.

I’ll admit that it would be a lot of fun to watch a rematch, but I’m not sure that it’s worth it after the way that Vlad Jr. has started his 2021 campaign. Granted, the derby won’t be for more than two months from now and a lot could change, but I sincerely doubt that I’ll think it’s a better idea later on.

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The biggest reason is because of how Vlad Jr. is finding his success so far this year. He’s been putting on a clinic with his at-bats, showing tremendous patience at the plate, and swinging at a much higher quality of pitches than he did last year. Just as importantly, he’s playing to his strengths and trying to hit the ball up the middle, and the results have been fantastic.

That’s not to suggest that he can’t or isn’t pulling the ball, because that’s not the case either. Two of his four home runs have been on balls that were thrown inside, and he pulled and punished them. For the most part though, the visual of his spray chart (courtesy of Baseball Savant) is a beautiful display of hitting the ball up the middle.

Over the years there have been varying opinions about whether the HR derby can mess with a star slugger’s swing. To be fair, players take batting practice on a daily basis, but that’s not done with a singular goal of hitting the ball over the fence. Playing at a level that requires more precision than most of us understand, a day of breaking away from routine can have an effect.

So while it’s not a decision that will need to be made any time soon, I hope Vlad Jr. and the Blue Jays are prepared to decline the Home Run Derby in 2021. With that way he’s swinging the bat so far, it’s not worth the risk.