Blue Jays: What does the rotation depth chart look like now?

After Sunday’s game with the L.A. Angels was rained out, the Blue Jays announced that Tanner Roark will be moved to the bullpen going forward.

It’s not exactly a surprising decision after the way things have gone for Roark since he joined the Blue Jays ahead of last season. He signed a two-year, 24 million dollar contract as a free agent, and so far it’s been a complete disaster. Last season he went 2-3 with a 6.80 ERA and a 1.741 WHIP across 11 starts and 47.2 innings, and started off even worse by giving up five runs over just 3.0 innings in his first start this year, including three home runs.

For now Roark will likely serve as a long-reliever out of the bullpen, and most likely in a bit of a mop-up role, not unlike how we saw Tommy Milone used on Saturday. His rotation spot will be filled by the return of Robbie Ray from injury, who will join the remaining group that includes Hyun Jin Ryu, Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, and T.J. Zeuch.

With Nate Pearson ramping things up and even getting a bullpen session in on Sunday, he’ll factor into the equation at some point sooner than later, and Thomas Hatch could the same. With all of this in mind, as well as the new role for Roark, I thought it’s be interesting to take an updated look at the depth chart. This is based off of my own speculation, but it’s also based on information that’s not exactly a secret.

To me, I’d break the starters into three groups, but I’ll still rank them as I see them as of this writing. I’m also ranking them as if everyone is healthy, including Pearson and Hatch.

The core four of the rotation

There’s no question about who sits at the top of the depth chart with the Blue Jays employing a legitimate ace in Ryu. After him though, there are three starters in particular that Charlie Montoyo is going to have to count on in 2021.

1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Steven Matz
3- Robbie Ray
4- Nate Pearson

I was tempted to put Pearson in a different category, but I think he’ll have a rotation job as long as he’s healthy. The Blue Jays would always have the option to have him pitch in Triple-A if they feel that’s the best way to bring him along, but they also need his electric right arm to be at their strongest this year. Hopefully he’ll be able to put his injury issues behind him and truly start his career of a MLB starter.

Ryu is a no-brainer at the top, and he’s followed by two more southpaws in Matz and Ray. The former has been absolutely fantastic over his first two starts in a Blue Jays uniform, and Ray looked very good this spring before a freak injury at home delayed the start to his regular season. As things stand right now, the Blue Jays need these four pitchers to be healthy and productive.

Ideally Ross Atkins and the front office will be able to add another quality starter to the group at some point this year, but that’ll depend on whether or not the Blue Jays are in the hunt for a playoff spot. If they are, look for them to add some reinforcements. However, if Ray can pitch like he did this spring, Matz can keep up his hot start, and Pearson can reach his potential then maybe they won’t need to. That’s a lot of “ifs” though.

Emergency use only

It’s entirely possible that Tanner Roark will start another game for the Blue Jays this season, but it’s equally likely that he’s made his last outing as a starter too. I’m sure the Blue Jays will use him as a long reliever for a while, but it’s hard to see the veteran being very happy with that role, or even finding a new way to thrive. Time will tell.

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10- Tanner Roark
11- Tommy Milone
12- Alek Manoah
13- Julian Merryweather
14- Simeon Woods Richardson

If the Blue Jays have to dip into their depth chart beyond the top ten options, they could still turn to Milone to make a spot start. We’ll see how long he remains in the organization, as he’s the type that could end up designated for assignment to make room for another arm on the 26-man roster, but he was solid on Saturday following Matz in the win over the Angels.

The last three names on the list include talented arms that I don’t think the Blue Jays want to turn to, but could if need be. Merryweather may never start another game in his career after the way he’s performed as the early-season closer, and I’d vote for that career path for the fireballer going forward. As for Manoah and Woods Richardson, who both greatly impressed this spring, I think it’ll be later in the year before we see either of them, if not 2022.

Ideally the Blue Jays won’t have to dip into this tier of starters, but as I’ve mentioned already, it’s a long season and teams usually need at least 10 starting pitchers, if not several more. I’m sure the Blue Jays will utilize the “opener” strategy a fair bit, and I’m confident that Atkins and his team have their eyes peeled on the waiver wire and also for trade opportunities, but this is how I see the current rotation depth chart now that Roark is out of the picture.