Blue Jays: How many games will they win in 2021?

It should be an exciting year ahead for the Blue Jays, and while the expectations are high, it’s tough to predict how things will go.

After making the playoffs with a 33-27 record in 2020, and then going out and significantly improving the roster over the winter, I think it’s safe to say the Jays are now considered playoff contenders. Their strong young core is starting to blossom at the highest level, and adding George Springer and Marcus Semien to the group of budding stars is going to put a scare into most big league pitchers who will have to square off against them.

Their pitching staff is a lot less exciting, and is the likely culprit for the lukewarm projections for their chances coming out so far. I say that because MLBtraderumors.com put out an article yesterday talking this very thing. They pointed out that PECOTA sees the Blue Jays as an 84-85 win team, and Fangraphs likes them a little more with a record of 88-74, and MLBTR said they’d split the difference at 86.5.

Personally, I’m landing on the optimistic side, and I’ll even one up the whole lot of ’em. My prediction for the Blue Jays in 2021 is a record of 89-73, good for a 2nd place finish in the AL East and a Wild Card spot in the postseason.

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I really do believe in this roster, and think the Blue Jays could be even better on offence than most expect. Fangraphs has them projected for 5.33 runs per game, which is third behind only the Yankees (5.52), and Astros (5.32) in all of baseball. The lineup is going to be extremely deep, with at least eight legitimate threats at the plate on any given night with a healthy roster, and maybe even nine if Danny Jansen takes a step forward, or Alejandro Kirk makes the team.

I also believe that Ross Atkins and the front office will add to their rotation this summer as long as they’re still in the thick of the race. It was a bit of a surprise that they didn’t sign James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, or Jake Odorizzi when their markets pushed them into potential bargain territory, but I believe that’s more about wanting to see what they have among their glut of talented young arms, and to get a better look at the market in July.

Another reason I’m pretty bullish about the Blue Jays’ chances is because of the way the AL East is shaping up. Yes, the Yankees are probably still the American League favourites, but the rest of the division is weaker than usual. The Rays seem a lot more vulnerable without Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, especially after having replaced them with veterans like Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and re-uniting with Chris Archer. Fangraphs actually likes the Red Sox a little more (85-77) than the Rays (83-79), and also has the Orioles near the bottom of the league at 65-97.

It’s never an easy task to win games in the AL East, but this season bodes well for the Blue Jays. The main weakness for both the Rays and the Red Sox is their pitching (and obviously the Orioles too), so you can bet the Blue Jays plan on punishing their weak staffs. Theirs isn’t particular strong either, but it might not matter so much in this division in 2021. If it’s a nightly slug-fest, the Blue Jays should come out on top more often than not.

How about you, how many games do you think the Blue Jays will win in 2021?