Blue Jays: Part 2 – Examining potential pitching trade targets

To find part one in the series involving Blue Jays and potential pitching trade targets, click the link here.

As per the last article, all trades were conducted through the Baseball Trade Simulator in an attempt to find the best trades possible using both player ability and the player’s contract.

While the mentioned trades are just a small sample of what could be considered a trade scenario (and I highly recommend you try out the simulator for yourself because my suggestions are not the only scenarios), they attempt to satisfy the needs of both teams involved when looking at the opposite team’s depth charts and top prospects.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire: RHP Sonny Gray (29.7)                                                                                 (29.7)

Cincinnati Reds acquire: OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (26.3)

RHP Tom Hatch (2)                                                                                            (28.3)

or

3B Miguel Hiraldo (8)

RHP Alek Manoah (12.4)

RHP Trent Thornton (6.1)                                                                               (27.0)

The one you have most likely been waiting for: Sonny Gray.

With Trevor Bauer joining the Los Angeles Dodgers via free agency, the Cincinnati Reds might have lost their ace but still have a solid rotation with the likes of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster. Based on a few projections from various sources/writers, the Reds look to be sitting around third or fourth in the NL Central division with the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, and St. Louis Cardinals making the battle pretty competitive this season (sorry Pittsburgh).

Overall, the Reds are sitting in a pretty comfortable spot considering they still have the likes of veterans Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, and Nick Castellanos, as well as a strong farm system with pitchers Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene inching closer to becoming major league ready.

That being said, it will be tough to pry Sonny Gray away from the Reds given that the team isn’t rebuilding but could be looking to upgrade the starting lineup if they feel like Lodolo could take over as a starter with the team being able to move Gray to save money.

Scenario 1

Similar to a few examples back in part one of the series, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would be the main piece of this trade with pitcher Tom Hatch being added in to sweeten the deal.

A one for one deal involving Gray and Gurriel Jr. may not get the deal done, but adding Hatch could be enough to change the Reds front office minds to send the right-hander North of the border (or I guess to Dunedin as of right now). The Cuban outfielder could slot himself into the outfield alongside Castellanos, Shogo Akyiama, Nick Senzel, Arstides Aquino, and Jesse Winker as the Reds do have Eugenio Suarez at third base and prospect talent at shortstop (Jose Garcia) and third base (Jonathan India) with Moustakas manning second. There has been rumour that the organization has been looking to trade Suarez, which could help find a position for Gurriel Jr. if he were to join the organization.

For Hatch, the Reds could use him in Gray’s spot in the rotation or in the bullpen, given the right hander has experience at both areas while Lodolo and Greene continue to develop.

On the Blue Jays side, Gray would slot in behind Hyun-Jin Ryu and there would be a pretty comfortable one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Hatch would have been around the fifth-starter spot but had some tough competition ahead of him with the recent additions of Steven Matz and Tyler Chatwood as well internal options like Jacob Waguespack, Trent Thornton, and Julian Merryweather. Scott Mitchell of TSN had Hatch being used as a starter to begin the season but down in AAA Buffalo.

Scenario 2

This trade differs from scenario one in that the Reds would be getting more prospect talent rather than MLB-ready players, with pitcher Alek Manoah being the biggest prize of the group.

Both Manoah (5) and Miguel Hiraldo (9) sit high on the Blue Jays top prospect list but both players as well as pitcher Trent Thornton could be expendable given the organization would:

1. Acquire at least two years (club option for third) of veteran pitcher Sonny Gray
2. Still carry rotation options like Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, Robbie Ray, Anthony Kay, Tom Hatch, Steven Matz, Tyler Chatwood, Julien Merryweather, Jacob Waguespack, and Ross Stripling as options to round out the 3-5 spot in the rotation this year (with multiple players mentioned above being around for two+ years)
3. Keep top prospects Jordan Groshans, Austin Martin, Alejandro Kirk, Orelvis Martinez, and Simeon Woods-Richardson in the organization
4. Still have a mountain of infield prospects like Martinez, Groshans, Martin, Otto Lopez, and Leonardo Jimenez as well as a young core of infielders on the current roster in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio

The main problem with this trade is that Manoah and Hiraldo could turn out to be legitimate everyday MLB players and Blue Jays management could kick themselves for trading away both players before they fully developed. While the risk is always present when trading away prospects, the opposite side of that argument is adding Sonny Gray helps the Blue Jays over the next two-three years rather than having to wait for both players to develop. Considering the Blue Jays look poised to be playoff contenders sooner rather than later, I feel like the risk might be one worth taking.

For the Reds, they would acquire two prospects who would slot into the top ten of their prospect charts as well as acquire a bottom of the rotation option in Thornton who still has four years of control. Once top prospects Lodolo, Greene, and newly acquired Manoah are MLB ready, Thronton can move to a long man position in the bullpen if need be or continue starting depending on how the rotation shapes up over the next two seasons. Hiraldo would continue to develop and could possibly be ready as early as next season but 2023 seems more likely.

Conclusion

While Blue Jays fans have been very adamant about seeking a trade to acquire Sonny Gray, there really has been no indication that the Reds are/were actively shopping the right hander this off-season. On top of trading for Gray, if Blue Jays fans are really keen on keeping Gurriel Jr., they would most likely have to supplement in a potential replacement in either catcher Alejandro Kirk or shortstop Orelvis Martinez. Acquiring a veteran pitcher with team control will cost the Blue Jays something significant in return, meaning fans might have to let some prospects go in return.

The one thing that could be a huge factor is the Reds are apparently looking to shed payroll given the financial hit teams took last year with COVID-19. The Reds traded closer Raisel Iglesias to get his salary off the books this off-season as well as non-tendering reliever Archie Bradley to save some money as well.

Look for a potential trade to pop up later this year around the trade deadline, as the Reds may be more open to a trade to save money but also because they could be out of playoff contention and looking to capitalize.

If the Blue Jays want to sweeten the deal and possibly save prospect capital, they could chose to absorb a larger contract like Moustakas or Castellanos alongside Gray to help the Reds alleviate salary concerns, but there would be a big financial risk as both players are owed significant money over the next three to four years (there are club and player options, but you get the idea) that the Blue Jays would have on their payroll.