Blue Jays: Examining potential starting pitching trade targets

As teams across the MLB head into spring training this week, Toronto Blue Jays fans have to be pretty happy with how the off-season turned out for the organization.

While the going was slow at the beginning, the Blue Jays walked away with quite a haul, inking outfielder George Springer to a six-year contract, while also signing a plethora of players on one-year deals like shortstop Marcus Semien, RHP Kirby Yates, RHP Tyler Chatwood, and LHP Robbie Ray. The Blue Jays were also busy on the trade front as well, acquiring LHP Steven Matz from the New York Mets organization, adding to the large starting pitcher pool the team currently has. The Toronto Blue Jays certainly got better this off-season, something fans were hoping the team would capitalize on given that the roster is full of young talented stars who will be heading into their arbitration years as early as next year.

Even though the Blue Jays did make some acquisitions, not many people are ready to pencil the team in as this year’s World Series Champions just yet.

While the organization did sign some potential starting pitchers, the team still lacks considerable depth behind ace Hyun-Jin Ryu when it comes to the starting rotation. Don’t get me wrong, the Blue Jays have quite a few candidates when it comes to starting pitchers rounding out the 3-5 spots in the rotation, but behind Ryu, the roster is missing one or two pieces which could take the team from being playoff contenders to legitimate World Series threats. Prospect Nate Pearson is still getting his feet wet at the MLB level and while he could become the team’s future ace, he still needs to get some reps in given his injury past limiting his innings during his professional baseball career.

With the off-season over and all of the top pitching free agents already signed, the Blue Jays will now have to resort to trading for a starting pitcher, something the organization has done in the past, or wait until next off-season to sign potential free agents like Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, and Clayton Kershaw. Those pitchers would make the team better on paper, but if the Blue Jays want to attempt to win this year, the trade route will be their only option. While trading for a pitcher might not occur during spring training, if the Blue Jays find themselves close to the top of the A.L. East midway through the season, you will most likely see some trade action up until the deadline passes in late July.

The Rules and Regulations

With that in mind, using the Baseball Trade Values site (a website/simulator that analyzes potential trade scenarios while taking into consideration both player skill and contract size), this article is going to examine some possible trade scenarios that could see potential starting pitchers join the Blue Jays organization.

The trades mentioned are just a small snapshot of the potential scenarios that could happen or be modified (and certainly not the only ones available) but have all been considered fair trades and deemed acceptable from the website based on their criteria.

I tried to present a few different scenarios involving MLB-ready players and/or prospect deals based on whether the opposite team is entering a rebuild and the prospect/player depth the other team has with the players the Blue Jays would be trading. I also tried to take into consideration if the players being traded have been in recent trade rumours (whether with the Blue Jays or just in general) or if the Jays have been recent trade partners with the other team to make the possibility more realistic.

This will be a two-part series, as there are quite a few candidates on the table (so if you don’t see a certain player today, they may be up shortly, so don’t yell at me just yet).

Toronto Blue Jays Acquire:
LHP Sean Manaea (12.0)
= 12.0

Oakland Athletics Acquire:
SS Rikelvin de Castro (3.6)
LHP Anthony Kay (2.7)
RHP Trent Thornton (6.1)
= 12.4

A trade partner the Toronto Blue Jays are very accustomed to dealing with, the Oakland Athletics are a small market team that has a history of dealing players away in their arbitration years for prospect talent in order to save money, while still be considered competitive.

In this deal, the Athletics would be sending one of their top arms in Sean Manaea to the Blue Jays in exchange for some younger talent, with MLB pitchers Trent Thornton and Anthony Kay and prospect Rikelvin de Castro heading the opposite way. Over 97 games, Manaea has pitched to a 3.85 ERA with 447 strikeouts, 139 walks, and a 1.196 WHIP while racking up a 39-31 record and throwing a no-hitter back in 2018 against the Boston Red Sox.

Both Kay and Thornton have the potential to be starting pitchers, with Thornton leading the Blue Jays in innings pitched and games started back in 2019, but missing most of 2020 with an elbow injury. These two pitchers have already graduated from the organization’s top prospect list, while de Castro is currently ranked at 17, with an estimated time of arrival at the MLB level in 2024.

The reason this deal makes sense is that the Athletics would be gaining significant years of control over all three players while the Blue Jays would only have two seasons of Manaea before he becomes a free agent after the 2022 season. The Indiana native has one more year of arbitration after this season and will most likely put himself into a situation where the Athletics may not be able to afford him and could deal him at the deadline this year. The left-hander did miss most of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, but appears to have put that behind him and pitched the entire shortened season in 2020.

Conclusion

Honestly, this trade is very unlikely to happen given the Athletics haven’t been shopping Manaea and don’t appear to be ready to deal him yet given they reached the playoffs last year. I think his trade value should be a little higher than what Baseball Trade Values has it at right now (12.0), given he is one of Oakland’s top pitchers, and the team is still competitive at the time. Nevertheless, the small-market team will most likely trade him one day in the future, and the Blue Jays should have the phone ready for when he becomes available as these two teams have done quite a few transactions together over the years.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire:
RHP German Marquez (67.2)
= 67.2

Colorado Rockies acquire:
SS Jordan Groshans (40.1)
RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (19.8)
3B Miguel Hiraldo (8.5)
= 68.4

or

Toronto Blue Jays acquire:
RHP German Marquez (67.2)
OF Ian Desmond (-10)
= 57.2

Colorado Rockies acquire:
SS Jordan Groshans (40.1)
RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (19.8)
= 59.9

I can probably guess what you are thinking.

1. Holy crap, German Marquez has a high rating
2. Players can have negative values? (yes they can!)

Like the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies are entering a season that could see them tear apart their major league roster and head towards the rocky shores of a rebuild. They recently traded all-star Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals and star shortstop Trevor Story could potentially leave next off-season as he becomes a free agent for the first time in his career. On top of that, the Rockies have quite a few veterans on the roster, all of whom are on pretty large contracts but aren’t producing results. To make matters even worse, the Rockies currently have one of the worst-ranked farm systems in the MLB at 29th overall, so entering a rebuild still might not yield the results they hope to see with the current system in place.

German Marquez is one of the top pitchers in the Rockies rotation and already has almost five years of experience at just 25 years old. The Venezuelan native owns a career 4.24 ERA and 1.269 WHIP with 640 strikeouts in 106 starts (109 appearances) since joining the rotation back in 2016. While some might question why his stock is so high given his 4.24 ERA, you have to remember that Marquez also pitches half of the time at the hitter-friendly park of Coors Field, home of the Rockies.

This trade would be tough on Blue Jays fans who follow the organization’s prospects/farm system because to acquire Marquez will take some serious prospect capital given his team-friendly contract and how he will not be eligible for free agency until the 2025 season.

Scenario 1

This trade would heavily rely on three of the Blue Jays best prospects in order to acquire Marquez.

For the deal to work, the Blue Jays would trade top prospects Jordan Groshans (3), Simeon Woods-Richardson (4), and Miguel Hiraldo (9) to get the deal done.

This deal works well for the Rockies as Groshans could take over as shortstop next season if Story does indeed leave via free agency while continuing to have highly touted Brendan Rodgers at second base. If Story does in fact stay with the Rockies, then the organization could move Groshans to third base to get him reps in the lineup with only Garret Hampson standing in his way as competition. Hiraldo would head to the minors and continue developing but could be MLB ready as early as a year or two from now. SWR could also factor into the Rockies rotation as early as next year, which would help lock down a potential future rotation featuring current pitchers Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, newly acquired Austin Gomber, and prospect Ryan Rolison.

For the Blue Jays, losing these prospects would be a huge blow, but it would allow newly drafted Austin Martin a way to the MLB as the organization’s third baseman He did struggle at third base during his college days, but unless the team chooses to trade one of their outfielders, his best bet may be at third base. Losing SWR would be another big blow to the pitching depth on the Blue Jays as he is apparently very close to cracking the Blue Jays roster as early as next year. With Hiraldo, losing him would sting as well but does not impact the depth charts too heavily with Orelvis Martinez, Leonardo Jimenez, and Rikelvin de Castro still in the Blue Jays farm system.

As far as rebuilds go, having these three in the organization would set the Rockies on the right track to securing a solid young core while revamping the farm system to get them out of the 29th ranking.

Scenario 2

This scenario could work for both sides in that the Blue Jays would absorb a bad contract in order to give up less prospect capital to acquire Marquez.

Since signing a five-year, $70 million deal back in 2016/2017, Ian Desmond has struggled to live up to the hype and value that he was signed for. While his stats are not abysmal, the Rockies would be looking to trade more veteran players if they do choose to rebuild and could package him alongside Marquez in order to save some money. As it stands right now, Desmond has one season left on his contract at $8 million with a club option for the 2022 season (with a $2 million buyout).

By packaging Desmond alongside Marquez, the Blue Jays would still have to send Groshans and SWR to complete the deal, but would be able to keep Hiraldo. The team would have to take on Desmond’s contract for the year and then take the hit for buying him out next off-season, but can afford to do so given the young core not being financially taxing on the overall salary.

If you really want to get radical, feel free to switch out Desmond for Charlie Blackmon and his -37 value, and the Blue Jays could essentially trade only Teoscar Hernandez (32.5) the other way in terms of value. While this trade most likely wouldn’t happen, if the Blue Jays are willing to take on significant money like the $55 million he is owed over the next three years (player options in 2022 and 2023), they could save some prospect capital going the opposite way and use them either on the roster or in other trades.

Take your pick.

Conclusion

The fact of the matter is that in order to acquire a pitcher in his prime with four years of team control is going to cost the Blue Jays no matter which way you package it. You can switch in and swap out Groshans and Woods-Richardson as much as you like, but you would only be adding other top prospect players like Alejandro Kirk or Orelvis Martinez to get the deal to work.

Losing Groshans and Woods-Richardson will sting for a while, but having a pitcher like Marquez on the roster would make the Blue Jays a better team today and give them a better opportunity at achieving postseason glory.

Look for the Colorado Rockies to possibly fire sale later this season if they don’t think they can retain Trevor Story. If Story goes, most likely Marquez will follow.

Tune in later this week as part two examines other possible starting pitchers the Blue Jays could acquire this year in an effort to reach October baseball. Feel free to play around with the simulator and see what trades you can muster up because believe me, these are not the only options available for the players mentioned in this article.