Toronto Blue Jays: Why the rotation will do, for now

Ideally the Blue Jays will still add to their starting rotation, but if they don’t, there are reasons to believe things will be alright, at least for now.

Don’t get me wrong, I very much believe that the Blue Jays should still acquire one, and likely even two more starting pitchers to improve the rotation, but it’s looking less likely after the way the last few days have played out.

For example, James Paxton signed for just 8.5 million (with incentives that could take it to 10 million), and surely the Blue Jays could have beaten that price if they wanted to. Instead, it appears that Ross Atkins may have spent the vast majority of the offseason budget already, and/or may be holding on to a bit of cash in case the club needs reinforcements this summer ahead of the trade deadline.

It seems like an odd decision not to further improve the obvious area of weakness with the Blue Jays, but I can also understand why the front office may be feeling confident anyway. They’ve had a fantastic offseason, landing George Springer to a six-year, 150 million dollar contract, Marcus Semien for one year and 18 million, and reinforced the bullpen with additions like Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, and more. They also addressed the rotation to a lesser extent, bringing back Robbie Ray for one year and eight million, and making a trade with the Mets for Steven Matz.

I’m still hopeful that they will sign one of Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi to improve the starting group right off the hop, but I can also see some of the rationale for holding back for now, and why we should still be very exciting about the Blue Jays chances in 2021.

Rest of the East

While the Blue Jays figure to have a starting rotation full of question marks, they’re not alone. In fact, I can’t remember a time when the AL East was so uncertain when it comes to starting pitching.

For example, the Yankees decided to roll the dice on a pair of new rotation additions, and it could go either way. Brian Cashman may look like a genius because he signed Corey Kluber for one year and 11 million, but he’ll also turn 35 in April and has only made eight starts over the last two seasons thanks to injury. It’s a similar story for Jameson Taillon, who didn’t pitch at all last year while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Beyond those two, the Yankees figure to use some combination of Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, and eventually hope to include Luis Severino. They still have Gerrit Cole to lead the rotation, but after that comes a lot of question marks. Admittedly it could go well, but there’s also the potential for disaster.

As for the Rays, they went from the best rotation in the division to a mixed bag that’s hard to predict. Gone are Blake Snell (traded to San Diego) and Charlie Morton (signed in Atlanta), and in their places are Michael Wacha and the return of Chris Archer. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarborough are still around, and they also just signed 41-year-old Rich Hill, but there’s no denying there’s been a step back here.

The Red Sox should get Chris Sale back this summer, but it’s hard to imagine him performing at his usual level right away. Eduardo Rodriguez will return and he looked great in 2019 before health issues sidelined him last year, and their rotation is likely rounded out by the likes of Nate Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez, and Nick Pivetta, which shouldn’t intimidate anyone. As for the Orioles, well, the fact that Matt Harvey has a chance to make the team should tell you all you need to know.

I don’t mean to suggest that the Blue Jays should be satisfied with their own rotation simply because the rest of their division is so volatile. However, there’s reason to think they could get away with what they have for now, at least to start the year.

They’re going to score a ton of runs

If the Blue Jays have trouble keeping their opponents from scoring runs, the best solution might be simply to out-slug them. And looking at the potential lineup in Toronto, scoring runs shouldn’t be a problem.

Aside from the likely #9 hitter in Danny Jansen, there really isn’t a break for opposing pitchers when they’ll square off against this group. The Jays could even have Alejandro Kirk join the lineup right away and make it nine deep, although I expect he’ll at least start the season in Triple-A so he can play full-time.

Here’s a look at a likely lineup from Fangraphs, including the projections for slash lines and home runs:

1- George Springer (CF)- .272/.359/.497, 31 HR
2- Marcus Semien (2B)- .256/.355/.441, 23 HR
3- Bo Bichette (SS)- .283/.334/.495, 26 HR
4- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)- .243/.311/.495, 36 HR
5- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)- .287/.355/.510, 28 HR
6- Cavan Biggio (3B)- .232/.347/.412, 21 HR
7- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF)- .271/.314/.486, 28 HR
8- Rowdy Tellez (DH)- .259/.325/.488, 22 HR
9- Danny Jansen (C)- .234/.324/.419, 15 HR

From just those nine players Fangraphs is projecting 230 home runs, and another 21 from Randal Grichuk, who figures to see plenty of playing time as well. They won’t have to rely solely on the long-ball either, as there are several well-rounded hitters throughout the lineup. And when you think about this group squaring off against a weaker pitching class from the AL East than we’ve seen in years, it’s hard not to get excited.

Upside and creative use

I’ll reiterate on more time that I’d much prefer to see the Blue Jays improve their starting rotation. However, we must also recognize that the Jays are pretty progressive with their approach to the pitching staff, and need for traditionally successful starters isn’t as great as it once was.

What we’ve seen from Charlie Montoyo and the Jays over the last few years is a reluctance to let the starter pitch deep into the game, almost preferring to avoid the third time through the order altogether. Whether that means utilizing an opener in some cases, or piggy-backing a couple of pitchers who throw multiple innings, the Jays haven’t been afraid to creatively use their staff.

To that end, the Blue Jays may not have a lot of high-upside arms for the rotation, but they have plenty of options. Their depth chart looks something like this:

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1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Nate Pearson
3- Robbie Ray
4- Tanner Roark
5- Steven Matz
6- Ross Stripling
7- Tyler Chatwood
8- Trent Thornton
9- Anthony Kay
10- Thomas Hatch
11- Julian Merryweather
12- TJ Zeuch
13- Jacob Waguespack
14- Alek Manoah

… and more.

They obviously can’t carry them all at the same time, and some of these arms will be used out of the bullpen. However, the Blue Jays shouldn’t run into a problem like when Edwin Jackson kept starting a few years ago because “they didn’t have anyone else”.

At the very least, the Blue Jays should be able to find some serviceable combinations for the pitching staff, and if using guys like Matz, Stripling, Chatwood, etc for three innings at a time produces positive results, maybe Atkins and Montoyo come out looking like geniuses for their approach.

Only time will tell if the Blue Jays are making a grave mistake by not reinforcing the rotation a little more, but there are a handful of explanations that make some sort of sense. At least, for now.