Blue Jays: An early guess at how the 26-man roster will look

While it still feels like the Blue Jays will add a piece or two, we’re starting to get a clear idea of what the 26-man roster could look like in 2021.

That’s not to suggest that there won’t be battles for jobs during Spring Training, but a lot of the roster could be in place already, at least on paper. Health and even spring performance will play a factor too of course, but I’d like to take a shot at predicting how the squad will look on Opening Day.

I’m going to write this as the roster is currently constructed, even though I believe they’ll add at least one more starting pitcher before the regular season gets underway. I also suspect that the front office will continue to pursue relief arms on low-cost/MiLB deals, and that they could even look for a veteran catcher to add to the depth chart. They brought back David Phelps this week, and claimed Joel Payamps from the Red Sox, which forced some other decisions with the 40-man roster as well.

It’s an exciting time for Blue Jays fans, as the team not only signed impact players like George Springer, Marcus Semien, Kirby Yates, and more, but they’ve also cut bait with a few assets that arguably needed to go, showing another level of commitment to winning this season. On paper, the group that Ross Atkins and company have put together looks very strong, even if they’re probably a piece or two away from a true championship contender.

Let’s have a look at where things stand with just four days until pitchers and catchers report.

The lineup

If there’s one area of the Blue Jays roster that’s going to strike fear into their opponents, it’s the lineup.

The Jays already had an exciting young lineup coming together with the likes of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cavan Biggio, and more, and then they went out and added two All-Stars to the mix in Springer and Semien. It’s hard to say how the final lineup configuration will look, and chances are it’ll change several times throughout the year, but I’m guessing that Charlie Montoyo will at least start things off with something like this:

1- Springer (CF)
2- Semien (2B)
3- Bichette (SS)
4- Hernandez (RF)
5- Biggio (3B)
6- Gurriel Jr. (LF)
7- Vlad Jr. (1B)
8- Rowdy Tellez (DH)
9- Danny Jansen (C)

You could honestly flip this lineup around in a number of different ways, and the answer would be just as promising. I could see Semien moving down later in the year, but I have a feeling that Montoyo will lead off with his two new additions, and it’s not exactly a bad strategy. Springer has been one of the best lead-off men in baseball for a number of years, and Semien was an MVP candidate as recently as 2019.

That said, Biggio works well as either a lead-off hitter, or even in the two-spot, and I suspect that we’re about to see a big year from Vlad Jr. as well, and an inevitable move up in the order. It’s a good problem for Montoyo to deal with, and it may be as simple as filling out his lineup card according to match-ups, or even who has been hot at the plate.

There may be a few weaknesses left on the Blue Jays roster, but hitting shouldn’t be one of them. Expect this team to score a lot of runs.

The bench

It’s entirely possible that some of the names I listed on the last page could spend more time on the bench than in the lineup card. In some cases the depth extends further than the starting nine.

For example, Randal Grichuk is looking like he stands to lose a fair bit of playing time in 2021 after being the starting centre fielder for most of the last two seasons. He’ll more than likely platoon against lefties, and could even see a fair bit of time in a corner outfield spot while guys like Hernandez make starts as the designated hitter. I’m sure he’ll be the type that will play more often than not, but I don’t know that we can consider him a “starter” at the moment. That’s a pretty nice place to be, especially with his power bat off the bench.

As for the rest of the back-up squad, I suspect that Joe Panik will return to the big league roster now that he’s been re-signed. He did an admirable job as a utility man in 2020, and his left-handed bat gives the Blue Jays some needed balance.

As for a back-up catcher, I’m of the belief that Alejandro Kirk will start his season in Triple-A, even if his bat is ready to play at the big league level. He’s an exciting prospect, but to truly shine he could use some more defensive seasoning, and it would be easier to provide that with full-time duties. For now I’ll guess that it’s Reese McGuire’s job to lose, but I also think the Jays will look to sign a low-cost, veteran backstop.

Up until a few days ago I would have assumed that the last bench spot would go to Derek Fisher, but he’s now been designated for assignment. I hope and believe that will open the door for Jonathan Davis, whose speed and defence would be a nice weapon off the bench.

I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Santiago Espinal throughout the year as well, but my guess is he falls just short of making the Opening Day squad.

The rotation

If there’s one area of weakness, and an area that still needs addressing, it’s the rotation. Depth really isn’t a problem at the moment, but they’re running pretty short on reliable track records.

As I’ve mentioned above, I believe that Atkins and the front office will still add another starter to the group. Whether that’s by re-signing Taijuan Walker, or by bringing in someone like Jake Odorizzi or James Paxton, there are still a handful of quality options available. The Blue Jays also have the resources to make a significant trade, if such an opportunity still exists this winter.

For now though, here’s how I think they start the year:

1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Nate Pearson
3- Robbie Ray
4- Tanner Roark
5- Steven Matz

They’re in a fortunate position to have a certifiable ace in Ryu, but there are a lot of question marks after that. Pearson’s talent is off the charts, but after a minor league career that’s been regularly interrupted by injury, it’s hard to know how many innings he can throw this year even in a best case scenario.

Roark’s debut season as a Blue Jay was a disaster, but I think he’s still part of the group if the season starts today. l also think he’d be the first starter bumped if they can make another addition, but we’ll see if that happens or not. As for Matz, I think he’ll be part of the rotation to at least start the year. In order to trade for him and take on his whole salary, I’m sure the Blue Jays see something they like in his left-handed arm.

They’ll have others in reserve in Triple-A like Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, and more, but the Blue Jays could still use a #2 or better starter to improve the depth chart even more.