Blue Jays: Five big reasons to love Marcus Semien’s signing

Vlad and Bo stay where they belong

The Blue Jays had a ton of options as far as the best ways to improve this offseason, and signing Semien represents one of the best case scenarios for a variety of reasons.

It sounds like Semien is going to mostly line up at second base, which is a pretty great way for things to work out. I’d argue it might have been even better if they signed a third baseman and Cavan Biggio could have remained at second, but he’s capable of moving around, and Semien is a better player than what the third base market is/was offering.

More importantly, the Blue Jays are able to keep Bo Bichette as the starting shortstop, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should mostly stay at first base. In my opinion, that’s for the best in both cases. Bichette is shaping up as the franchise player in Toronto these days, and he very much wants to stay at his long-time position. He’s shown steady improvement and there’s no reason to bet against him going forward. At the very least, the Blue Jays need to give him every opportunity to be their answer at shortstop. And in the event that he struggles to stay healthy, the Blue Jays could shift Semien to short for a while and still be in a strong position.

As for Vlad Jr., I couldn’t be more excited about the work he’s put in this offseason. I’m even willing to concede that it would be good to give him the occasional start at third base, adding to the versatility of the roster even further. That said, I never expected that he was a realistic option at the hot corner on a full-time basis, and I’m sure the Blue Jays front office felt the same way. Now the discussion should largely go away.

Semien raises the floor and the ceiling for both the offence and the defence, while not forcing an unnecessary move. I’ll call that a pretty significant win.

The lineup just got downright scary

After signing Springer, the Blue Jays had already vastly improved their offence. By bringing Semien on board, they should be able to slug with the best of ’em.

Honestly, it’s pretty hard to predict how Charlie Montoyo might fill out his lineup card, but there are several good answers. The only thing that’s really lacking at all is left-handed bats, but that’s not as big of an issue when you’re sporting dangerous right-handed hitters throughout the starting nine.

My assumption is that Semien will start the year batting in the top third of the order. Even after a down year, don’t forget that he slashed .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs, 43 doubles and 92 RBI in 2019. I don’t think we should expect that level of production, but he’s still a true asset to the offence.

However, if it were up to me, I’d start the season like this:

1- Springer (CF)
2- Biggio (3B)
3- Bichette (SS)
4- Hernandez (RF)
5- Vlad Jr. (1B)
6- Gurriel Jr. (LF)
7- Semien (SS)
8- Tellez (DH)
9- Jansen (C)

If you would stack them up differently, there’s probably a good argument for doing so. You could arguably move almost anyone up in the order, other than Jansen. There’s also Randal Grichuk to consider, who could get plenty of playing time, especially against southpaws.

The point is, Montoyo is probably looking at a pretty fluid situation, and one where he can ride the hot hands. With so many dangerous hitters available, the Blue Jays won’t be giving opposing pitchers many breaks. That’s a nice place for a skipper to be.

It buys time for emerging prospects

One of the things I was a little worried about this offseason was the idea that the Blue Jays might have to block an emerging star in the future in order to improve the roster now. By signing Semien to just a one-year deal, that won’t be an issue for guys like Austin Martin and/or Jordan Groshans.

The Blue Jays are clearly entering a “win-now” phase of things, and you can’t hold a spot for prospects when you’re hoping to compete at that level. However, I could very much see a scenario where one or even both Martin and Groshans are ready for a MLB debut before the end of the 2021 campaign, and maybe even ready to join the Blue Jays on a full-time basis next season.

Both players could be the long-term answer at third base, which would allow Biggio to move back to second. If Biggio settles in at third, Martin could be an answer at second base as well, or it’s still possible he lands in the outfield. Groshans feels more destined for third base, but has played a fair bit of shortstop as well.

The point is, we’re talking about two emerging prospects that could force their way into the Blue Jays plans, and the front office has set up a scenario that could easily allow for that to happen. If that marriage with Semien isn’t a good fit, the Blue Jays can walk away and hand the job to one of their talented youngsters in 2022. If it’s a match made in heaven, there are other options that could be considered, especially with Biggio’s flexibility, and the same for Martin.

As an added bonus, having both Semien and Springer around takes pressure off of the likes of Bichette, Guerrero Jr., and the other fairly new big leaguers that make up the roster. Granted, the expectations have just been raised over the last week, but they were already high after the Jays made the playoffs in 2020. I’m aware that it was an expanded playoff format last year, but that fact wouldn’t have changed the pressure on this young roster.

Ultimately, the only thing I like more than the fact that the Blue Jays were able to sign Semien is that it was for just one year. Given the homegrown options on the way, I think that’s going to work beautifully in the short, or long-term.

Semien’s bonus value

When the news broke that Semien was signing in Toronto, one of the first things I did was check to see if the A’s had given him a qualifying offer. Nope. Which means the Blue Jays didn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him.

To make things even better, there’s a way they could extract more value out of Semien than just what he brings to the field this year.

If the 2021 season doesn’t go the way the Blue Jays are hoping, it would be a no-brainer to put the California native on the trade block in July, and you might just get another couple of prospects to add to the treasure troves. That’s obviously not something to hope for, but it’s a consolation prize if the Blue Jays fall out of the race.

Assuming they hang on to the 30-year-old and compete for a playoff spot, he could actually be eligible for a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays at the end of the year. He’ll need to perform closer to his 2019 numbers to justify a salary average among the top 125 earners in the game, but it’s entirely possible that happens.

Because he’d have spent the entire year in Toronto in this scenario, he’d pass that checkpoint for the QO (A team can’t offer it if you’ve been traded during the season). The other requirement is that he hasn’t received it before, and we have the A’s to thank for that.

Really, there are two best case scenarios here. One sees things go so well that Semien and the Blue Jays want to sign an extension after the year. In a second, Semien plays well enough to earn the QO, signs elsewhere after the season, and then the Blue Jays hand the job to Martin/Groshans while collecting another pick.

They’ve faced a lot of criticism over the years (including from yours truly), but you’ve gotta hand it to Atkins and his staff on this one.

Last but not least- Semien’s a good baseball player

All of these other variables are important, but none of that matters if Semien doesn’t produce on the field. Based on his talent and recent success (mostly forgetting 2020), it’s a good bet that he’ll make the Blue Jays look pretty good here.

I don’t expect him to reach the 2019 level that we’ve already talked about, but even getting close would be a major win. Even before his 8.9 bWAR season in 2019, he posted a mark of 4.7 in 2018, and 3.5 in 2016 (he only played 85 games in 2017). Last year didn’t go well, but he also battled some injuries while staying on the field for 53 of the A’s 60 games. He was scratched from the lineup in August with a sore wrist, and that’s always a tough injury for a hitter to deal with.

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I don’t expect that the Blue Jays just signed an MVP candidate, but I also believe Semien will bounce back nicely from his 2020 numbers. If they get somewhere in between, say what he did in 2018, that’s a very solid contribution to an already dangerous group. That season the veteran slashed .255/.318/.388 with 15 home runs, 35 doubles, 70 RBI and 14 stolen bases. You’d like to see the on-base percentage come up a bit, but otherwise that’s an exciting player to add to the lineup.

There’s also the fact that Semien will more than likely play second base rather than at his normal spot at short. It’s a position he hasn’t played since 2014, but it should be less demanding after he’s made some adjustments, and maybe even gives him the potential to be a plus defender. Other than last year, he’s rated as a slightly above-average defender as a shortstop, and that could bode well with a move to second.

In all the Blue Jays are getting a player that can play on both sides of the ball, hit for average and power, and even add a bit of speed on the bases. He’s a respected veteran, a known clubhouse leader with playoff experience on his resume, and he fills an important need for the Blue Jays in a number of ways.

Now if they can go out and get a starting pitcher or two to improve the rotation, I might not be able to contain my excitement any more.