Blue Jays: Beyond Bauer- Top five rotation options remaining

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TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 25: General manager Ross Atkins of the Toronto Blue Jays talks to television analyst Pat Tabler during batting practice before the start of MLB game action against the Chicago White Sox on April 25, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

The Blue Jays still have a need in their starting rotation if they truly want to compete. Beyond signing Trevor Bauer, what are their best options?

I’m sure that’s a question that Ross Atkins and the front office are asking themselves multiple times a day right now. They’ve already landed their big fish for the winter, officially agreeing to a six-year, 150 million dollar pact with George Springer, but they have the available payroll and potential trade assets to take the roster improvement another step further.

They still need to address third base as well, as I don’t think the Blue Jays are going to hand the job back to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but the greatest need remains in the starting rotation. The obvious fix would be to sign Trevor Bauer, but that’s going to be extremely expensive and there are reasons to be reluctant about signing him even if he’s one of the best pitchers in the world. I’m not ruling out the possibility, but I think the Blue Jays will look elsewhere. Which leads me to my question for today:

What the best options available to them?

I’m going to leave Bauer off the list, and I’ll do the same with Luis Castillo of the Cincinnati Reds, as I don’t think he’ll end up traded, and I think we can all agree he’s included if he is available anyway. For now, let’s look at some less obvious names that could still fill the Blue Jays’ needs in the rotation, and hopefully give them the kind of production that will truly move the needle in 2021.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 15: Taijuan Walker #00 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 15, 2020 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

Don’t fix what isn’t broken

The Blue Jays were surprisingly aggressive at last year’s trade deadline and they made a couple additions in particular that likely made the difference in getting them to the playoffs. Arguably the best trade that Atkins made was acquiring Taijuan Walker from the Seattle Mariners, who promptly posted a 1.37 ERA over six starts for the Blue Jays. The audition couldn’t have gone a whole lot better.

Despite the fact that there seems to be an obvious fit here, a reunion has yet to come to fruition. To be fair, it’s hard to evaluate what Walker’s market could, or even should look like.

Previous to his strong return in 2020, the right-hander battled injuries and made just four starts between the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He posted a 3.49 ERA over 28 starts in 2017 as a 24-year-old, and the talent is there, it’s just tough to gauge what he’ll do going forward.

All that said, I feel like there’s a fair bit of upside here, and the marriage between the two parties worked very well for a short time in 2020. Walker has been active on social media throughout the offseason, and has spoken fondly of his time in Toronto. If Atkins and the front office are looking to add two starters before Opening Day, Walker would make for a tremendous fit as the #3 arm in the rotation. Even if they’re only going to bring in one more starter, they could certainly do worse than the 28-year-old.

Mlbtraderumors.com predicted back in November that Walker would receive a two-year deal for 16 million. If that’s all it takes for a reunion, the Blue Jays would be fools not to make it happen.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 15: Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Kansas City Royals on August 15, 2020 in game one of a doubleheader at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

A better option than you may think

One name we’ve heard linked to the Blue Jays for a couple of years now is Jake Odorizzi. The Blue Jays expressed interest in the veteran last winter, but he ultimately accepted the qualifying offer from the Twins. Unfortunately for the 30-year-old, he battled injury and it didn’t go so well.

That said, he’s now healthy and there’s no reason to think that he can’t return to the form that made him an All-Star in 2019. He posted a 3.51 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP over 159 innings, which aren’t that far off from his career marks of a 3.92 ERA and a 1.240 WHIP. 2019 was arguably his best MLB season, but he also had plenty of success pitching for the Rays from 2013-2017, so he has the bonus of knowing the demands of the division.

Oddly enough, the reaction to rumours about in Odorizzi have been met with a mixed reaction from Blue Jays fans on social media. I think that’s because he’s viewed as a “fall-back” option of sorts, if Atkins can’t get a true ace like Bauer or Castillo. However, it’s all about perspective and what he’s being asked to do. If Odorizzi is slotted in as a #3 guy, or even #2 with another solid veteran behind him, that’s now a bad place for the Blue Jays to be.

MLBtraderumors.com likes the right-hander for three years and 39 million this winter. If he signs for that (or less), the Blue Jays could afford to sign him and Walker. Then the rotation looks like this:

1- Hyun Jin Ryu
2- Odorizzi
3- Walker
4- Nate Pearson
5- Robbie Ray

I mean, that’s not bad, right? I realize that the group would look better with Bauer and/or Castillo in there, but with a talented lineup ready to put up a ton of runs, this rotation could pick up a lot of wins. Odorizzi isn’t the sexiest name on the market, but he might be one of the more logical targets.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 18: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees in action against the Houston Astros in game five of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 18, 2019 in New York City. The Yankees defeated the Astros 4-1. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Yeah, I’m going to say it again

I’ve been beating this drum for a while now, but I’m going to include it here one more time and then I’ll drop it. I think the Blue Jays can, and should sign a pair of ex-Yankees in Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton.

As for predicted salaries, Tanaka is said to be seeking a one-year deal in the 15-20 million range, and that’s not going to come from the Yankees unless they disregard the luxury tax threshold, which doesn’t seem likely. It makes all the sense in the world to me, even if it’s for closer to 20 million. The Jays have the available payroll space, and a commitment of just one year works really well as a low-risk move.

As for Paxton, his predicted deal is for one year and 10 million. As I said about Tanaka, I love the idea of a one-year deal for a potential high-end option. It buys more time for development for young arms like Nate Pearson, Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, and more. As much a the Blue Jays are looking outside the organization for rotation help, they may have answers coming. They’re just not quite ready yet.

I’m not sure Paxton will get that much, but even if he does and Tanaka reaches the top of his ask at 20 million, the Blue Jays can afford them both without a problem. It would give them an experienced trio at the top, and if they can all stay healthy, one that would give them a solid chance in a playoff series.

I’ll drop it now, but one last time, I am very much in favour of this idea.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – SEPTEMBER 27: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Minnesota Twins on September 27, 2020 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

Call the Reds anyway

When rumours started circulating that the Yankees were closing in on a deal for Luis Castillo, social media went nuts. So much so that the Reds came out and threw water on the idea, making a statement that they weren’t going to trade their ace.

That doesn’t mean they won’t trade a top-tier starter though, and I still think that Sonny Gray pitches in a new uniform in 2021. Could he be a fit in Toronto? For me it’s all about what the Reds want in return, but there’s no denying that he’d be an upgrade.

Gray was solid during the short 2020 season, posting a 3.70 ERA and a 1.214 WHIP over 11 starts and 56 innings. The year before he was sensational though, making the All-Star team with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.084 WHIP over 31 starts and 175.1 innings. That’s ace-level production, it’s just hard to know what to expect from, especially after his last tenure in the AL East with the Yankees didn’t go so well.

Still, he’s very appealing because his talent also comes with affordable contract control. According to spotrac.com, he has a base salary of 20.2 million over the next two seasons, including for 2023 at 12 million. His deal also comes with a trade bonus, and some escalators for things like Cy Young, innings pitched, and All-Star appearances. Still, even if he kicked in all of the extras, he’s a tremendous bargain.

For the Blue Jays it will all come down to cost. Perhaps they could also take back another player like Mike Moustakas and his expensive deal, but that could also fill the vacancy at third base with a decent option. There’s a deal that could make sense here, and I’m sure the Blue Jays have at least called to inquire.

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – AUGUST 26: Kris Bryant #17, Miguel Montero #47 and Anthony Rizzo #44 talk to starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of their game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on August 26, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

The perfect fit

I’ve talked about this idea recently too, but it also bears repeating. If the Cubs are willing to consider trading Kyle Hendricks, the Blue Jays need to make a very strong offer. If there’s a package that also includes Kris Bryant then that’s also intriguing, but the major target is Hendricks.

The 31-year-old would provide ace-level value to the rotation, and his approach should allow him to continue to thrive into his 30’s. Like Ryu, he’s more of a finesse pitcher, but he’s found a way to consistently pitch at a top-10 level in the National League. He’s also under contract for an affordable rate through 2023 with a vesting option for 2024. He’ll make just 42 million over those three years, and another 16 million on the no-brainer option, assuming he’s still healthy and productive by then.

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That kind of premium production at a bargain rate isn’t going to come cheap, and there’s a good argument that the Cubs should keep him around as they look to re-tool. That said, the Blue Jays have the trade pieces to make a deal happen, and they could change the Cubs’ minds if they want to. Whether that means they make Lourdes Gurriel Jr. available, and/or possibly dangle prospects like Jordan Grohans, Simeon Woods Richardson, or catchers Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno, they have options. The idea of trading a catching prospect also makes sense as the Cubs are reportedly considering also trading their own All-Star backstop in Willson Contreras.

The point is, there’s a fit to be had here as long as the trade return makes sense for the Blue Jays. The Cubs might want the farm and then some for their ace, but as long as there aren’t any deal-breaker names in the mix, it’s probably worth considering. Hendricks has the type of profile that feels like it’s a good gamble to bet on, and comes with about as good of a resume as you could ask for.

Next. Blue Jays have Paxton on their radar. dark

While we’re getting closer to the start of spring training, I think it’s safe to say that the Blue Jays aren’t quite done with their offseason shopping. There are a lot of ways they could go to cross off the final tasks of their offseason checklist, and after landing George Springer this week, I can’t wait to see what happens next.

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