Blue Jays: An ideal offseason from this point forward

Starting with the starters

I’ve written about the starting rotation an awful lot this offseason, and so far my opinion really hasn’t changed much. That’s because the Blue Jays are still in the same place they were after they re-signed Robbie Ray, which has it’s pros and cons.

The good news is that the Jays have better depth in their rotation than they’ve had for a few years now. Unfortunately that depth doesn’t include a lot of high-end options, but they have a lot of arms that could do the job. That list includes Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather, and possible debuts from top prospects like Alek Manoah, or maybe even Simeon Woods Richardson later in the year. For once, depth really isn’t the problem, but that doesn’t mean they should settle with what they have.

The problem with this year’s free agent class is that Trevor Bauer stands alone as the only “ace” available as a free agent. After watching both Blake Snell and Yu Darvish dealt to the Padres in separate swaps, the market for that kind of premium arm is getting very limited. It’s possible that the Reds could be convinced to trade Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray, or MAYBE you could talk the Cubs into letting go of Kyle Hendricks (for a king’s ransom) but the options are dwindling fast.

Keeping that in mind, I’d like to see the Blue Jays spend the bulk of their available payroll to improve other areas of the team. That doesn’t mean that I think they should leave the rotation alone though, so I’d propose the following:

• Sign Masahiro Tanaka (mlbtraderumors has him down for three years and 39 million)
• Sign James Paxton to a pillow contract of one year and 10 million
• Total commitment: 23 million per year.

You may not be getting the A-type of starter that we’ve all dreamed about, but this would give you the potential for almost as much value as long as Paxton bounced back and stays healthy. And suddenly your rotation depth looks even better.

1- Ryu
2- Tanaka
3- Paxton
4- Pearson
5- Ray

6- Roark
7- Stripling
8- Kay
9- Thornton, etc

It’s very possible that the front office would be satisfied with just one more starter, but the longer the offseason goes, the more they’ll have to tweak their game plan.

And remember, I said “ideal offseason”, not what I predict will happen. That theme will come up again later, so I’m just trying to hammer it home a few times here. Having both Tanaka and Paxton join the rotation would give them some solid veteran depth, and it’d have an extra dose of fun having taken them away from the Yankees’ option board. I’d sign up for that.

Real bullpen reinforcements

Okay, so now that we’ve got Tanaka and Paxton on board, that actually helps the bullpen depth chart a great deal because it means that Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling would serve as long-men. In an ideal world you probably trade Roark if you sign two starters, but I’ll keep things simple in that regard for now.

If those two joined what the Blue Jays already have in place for 2021, Charlie Montoyo’s card might look something like this:

1- Jordan Romano
2- Rafael Dolis
3- Ryan Borucki
4- Stripling
5- Roark
6- Shun Yamaguchi
7- A.J. Cole
8- Sean Reid-Foley, etc

That’s not a bad place to start, but I think the Blue Jays could add two more relievers and make it a fairly dominant group. To begin with, I’d add another left-hander to group in Brad Hand, who mlbtraderumors has down for two years and 14 million. I have a feeling he’ll get a better deal than that, but that’s the figure they’ve set for now.

While I’d love to see Liam Hendriks back in a Blue Jays uniform as well, Hand might be a better fit. I say that because I think the Jays would love to see Romano become their dominant homegrown closer, and he wouldn’t get that opportunity with Hendriks on the roster. Not that you intentionally weaken the group to give one pitcher opportunity in a certain role, but Hendriks likely will require a 3-4 year deal too, where in this case we’re signing Hand for two years.

To put an affordable cherry on top, I’d bring back Anthony Bass on a one-year deal. The right-hander was far better than advertised after joining the Blue Jays ahead of the 2020 season, and he performed well in any role he was asked. He could pitch in middle relief, as a set-up man, or even handle closing duties if need be, and he earned Charlie Montoyo’s trust last season. He didn’t make the MLBTR top 50 free agent list, so I don’t have a salary figure for him to point to, but let’s match the lowest rated reliever on the list (Mark Melancon at #48) at one year and four million. With Bass on board as well, then the bullpen looks pretty darn good.

1- Romano
2- Hand
3- Dolis
4- Bass
5- Borucki
6- Yamaguchi
7- Roark
8- Stripling

That group would give you plenty of length, a pair of lefties, and enough late-inning experience to cover Romano if he can’t repeat his 2020 performance, or fails to stay healthy. Pairing all of this with the improved rotation that we’ve already talked about, and your pitching staff looks a lot more formidable. In this scenario, Hand/Bass would cost 11 million in 2021, and adding that to the 23 million for Tanaka/Paxton, we’re up to 34 million in total.

Will they bring in a new outfielder?

One of the more frequent discussions around the Blue Jays this offseason has been the need to improve their outfield defence. That’s usually talked about in the form of bringing in a new centre fielder to anchor the group, and the popular name discussed has mostly been George Springer.

While I’m becoming more of a fan of that idea all the time, I’ve decided to spend my money in another way for this exercise. No, that doesn’t mean I’m going to roll with what the Blue Jays have. Instead, I think they should sign Jackie Bradley Jr., who MLBTR has slated for two years and 16 million. That could turn out be a bit light to get him under contract, but it’s also hard to say in such a strange offseason.

Bradley Jr. would give the Blue Jays that premium defender up the middle that would raise the floor of the group overall. They’ve been missing that defensive presence since Kevin Pillar was traded, and while Randal Grichuk is a decent outfielder, he’s far better suited for a corner.

“JBJ” is a former All-Star and Gold Glover, and has spent his entire 8-year career with the Red Sox. He performed pretty well at the plate in 2020 as well, slashing .283/.364/.450 with seven home runs, 11 doubles, and 22 RBI over 55 games, but it’s his glove that would really make the fit work in Toronto. It would also help that his left-handed bat could bring some balance to a right-heavy group of hitters, which we know Charle Montoyo values.

Adding Bradley Jr’s eight million per season brings our offseason total to 42 million, and getting close to the range where the work will be done. However, there’s still that last spot in the infield to fill.

Turning prospect capital into a star

To address the fourth and final area of the club, I’m finally going to turn to the trade market. If you read my article from yesterday, you likely have an idea where I’m going with this.

The Blue Jays missed out on the chance to add Francisco Lindor from Cleveland, but I don’t think that’s where the phone calls should stop with Atkins’ former employer. If they’d be willing to entertain the idea, the Blue Jays should make an extremely aggressive bid for Jose Ramirez.

He’s close to a perfect fit to go along with what they’ve already built with homegrown talent. Ramirez could slide in as the everyday third baseman, hit in the top third of the lineup, and bring average, power, and speed to an already talented group. With Ramirez on board, this is how I dream the lineup would look:

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1- Cavan Biggio (2B)
2- Bo Bichette (SS)
3- Ramirez (3B)
4- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
5- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
6- Rowdy Tellez (DH)
7- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF)
8- Bradley Jr. (CF)
9- Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk (C)

Now that’s what I’m talking about.

That lineup gives you balance, aided by Ramirez’s ability to switch-hit, and really feels like it would give them a chance to keep up with a healthy Yankee offence, which is scary in its own right.

You may also notice that Grichuk isn’t part of the starting lineup anymore, and that’s because I’ve made him part of the return for Ramirez headed to Cleveland. Check out the tweet I’ve posted below, with a screen shot courtesy of baseballtradevalues.com’s trade simulator.

After getting some feedback from fellow Blue Jays fans on Twitter, I’d tweak the offer a little bit, even if I don’t think Derek Fisher’s value is as “worthless” as so many Jays’ fans might believe. If I were to improve the offer a little (and leave out Fisher), I’d do it like this:

Toronto gets:

• Jose Ramirez

Cleveland gets: 

• Randal Grichuk
• Anthony Kay
• Jordan Groshans
• Alejandro Kirk
• Adam Kloffenstein
• Cash

According to baseballtradevalue’s simulator, Ramirez’s median trade value is a score of 72.8. Adding up Groshans/Kirk/Kloffenstein/Kay gives you 74.2. I included Grichuk because the Blue Jays would have a surplus of outfielders to deal with, and the 29-year-old has three years and 28 million remaining on his deal. Grichuk’s (-)12.6 brings the total down to 61.6, but I think there’s a way to bridge the gap. Let’s say the Blue Jays kick in 75% of the money to make it happen (or 21 million), and suddenly I’d wager that it’s pretty enticing for Cleveland here. They could use a veteran to improve a terrible outfield they’ve utilized in recent seasons, and Grichuk would be a legitimate upgrade for them.

More importantly they’d receive a legit top 100 prospect in Groshans to help them rebuild the next generation of their infield, a solid hitting catcher in Kirk, and two solid starters with potential. Kay could help right away and has a chance for a much higher ceiling than he’s shown, and I think Kloffenstein’s future is bright. It’s a high price to pay for the Blue Jays, but Ramirez is an MVP calibre player. I also believe they could get away with it because of the presence of other exciting prospects like Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Gabriel Moreno, Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, and more. They have the prospect depth to make a big move and not end up glutting their system.

Ramirez is under contract for the bargain rate of nine million in 2021, and we also we’ll add a third of Grichuk’s buyout at seven million as well. Adding that 16 million to the 42 we’ve piled up, the payroll sits near the top-end of our limits at 158 million.

I’ll remind you one last time that I’ve completed this exercise with the understanding that it’s not going to be that easy to improve the roster this much. However, I feel like this fantasy plan has addressed all four areas the Blue Jays needed to, and made the lineup, starting rotation, and the bullpen better.

Assuming the season starts on time, we’re about 2.5 months away from kicking off the 2021 schedule. There’s still time for Atkins and his staff to improve the roster, but there’s also a lot of work yet to be done. If they could get anywhere close to what I’ve ended up with here, I’d be one happy fan.