Blue Jays: Don’t forget the other cost of an elite free agent

While the idea of trading some of the Blue Jays’ top prospects is tough to stomach, we can’t forget about the true costs of free agency either.

As the Blue Jays continue to be connected to the top tier of the free agent market this offseason, I got thinking about the difference between signing players outright, or acquiring them through trade.

One of the common phrases you’ll hear about free agency is “it costs nothing other than money”, which is always an easy thing to say when it’s not coming out of your wallet. When it comes to free agency, that’s not always the case either, especially when you’re looking at the top of the free agent market.

This year that group features a foursome that could all make a major impact on the Blue Jays’ roster in different ways, and are the clear-cut top of the class this offseason. That list includes George Springer, DJ LaMahieu, Trevor Bauer, and J.T. Realmuto, who have all been connected to Blue Jays rumours to varying degrees. They also have something else in common, as they each rejected the qualifying offer from their former clubs.

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It’s a cost that’s generally accepted when you have the chance to sign a premium free agent, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t sting. The rules have changed quite a bit from a few years ago, and they’re actually really complicated. If you feel like diving into the full structure of the rules, check that out from mlb.com.

For those that would rather not give themselves a headache, let me sum it up a few bullet points. If the Blue Jays signed one of the “big four” they’ll lose a draft pick to that player’s former team. What pick depends on factors like:

• If the franchise received revenue sharing
• If the contract signed is for more than 50 million dollars
• If Blue Jays exceeded the luxury tax threshold last year (they didn’t)
• Essentially, you can lose one or two picks, somewhere between the first and five rounds, which goes to the player’s former club during the Competitive Balance round, which comes after the regular rounds.

Like I said, it’s very complicated and it depends on a lot of variables, but let’s take a look at one example.

Let’s say the Blue Jays sign George Springer sometime over the next week. Because Springer rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, they’re entitled to draft pick compensation. In this case, the Blue Jays did not exceed the luxury tax threshold last year, which is one factor. Another is that they’re not losing any of their own free agents through this process, which could change which pick they’d give up. Given all of the factors I’ve sifted through, it appears the Blue Jays would surrender their 3rd round pick (feel free to correct me in the comments section if I’m mistake. As I said, it’s complicated).

If this were 2020’s draft that would mean they wouldn’t have selected and signed Trent Palmer. In 2019 that third round pick was Dasan Brown, in 2018 it was Adam Kloffenstein, and in 2017 it was Riley Adams, who is currently on the 40-man roster. 2017 also brought an example of what it’s like to be on the other end, as the Blue Jays had the chance to draft Nate Pearson because they had lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland. The point is, that cost isn’t something to disregard.

One other piece to the puzzle is that giving up a draft pick also affects a team’s bonus pool money for the following year’s draft:

"“When a team forfeits a Draft pick, it also surrenders the accompanying bonus pool money associated that pick, independent from any money forfeited from its international bonus pool per the rules below.”"

I’m not suggesting that it should hold the Blue Jays back from chasing premium free agents, but it has altered my attitude about making big trades. Sure, trading for someone like Francisco Lindor is going to cost you some serious prospect capital, but in another way, so would signing DJ LeMahieu as a free agent. Granted, the cost wouldn’t be at par, but it’s still a factor to consider and it might make a big trade feel a little more palatable.

It remains to be seen what direction that Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays’ front office will go, but if they ultimately choose to make their biggest impacts through the trade route, it’s starting to make more sense to me all the time.