Blue Jays: The five free agents least likely to sign in Toronto

We spend time every off-season thinking about the players that could join the Blue Jays. Today, let’s look at a list of players who definitely won’t sign in Toronto.

Yesterday I wrote about how the Blue Jays have a large bag of trade chips that they could use this off-season, and that they could theoretically trade for almost anyone they’re after, assuming the other team is willing to deal. In addition to having trade flexibility, the Jays should have a fair bit of money to work with in free agency as well, further expanding their options to improve the roster ahead of next season.

That said, just because a player is hitting the open market doesn’t mean that the Blue Jays will have a chance to sign them. Looking ahead to this winter’s free agent class, I can see a few cases where the Jays likely won’t be making a call to the player agent, for one reason or another. It might be because of a previous relationship with the team, an assumed loyalty to their old club, or even an affinity for the National League. However, you slice it, not every player will be available for Ross Atkins to consider, even if he should have plenty of resources.

Who might these players be? Let’s have a look at this year’s free agent crop and see if there are any names that we can cross out ahead of time. With the future looking bright in Toronto, it should be a desirable location for free agents in a lot of ways, and the list is likely smaller than in some years. Still, it’s not empty.

Bitter feelings from the past?

Back during the Jose Bautista era, the Blue Jays developed a few great rivalries with other AL teams. Part of that was the result of their being a contender for a few years, and mutual disdain was born between teams like the Rangers after meeting in the playoffs two years in a row.

Of course, it wasn’t just the Rangers that developed a rivalry with the Blue Jays and Bautista, and there’s one pending free agent that likely wouldn’t be thrilled about the idea of signing in Toronto. That would be Darren O’Day, who had a solid 2020 campaign with the Atlanta Braves, posting a 1.10 ERA and a 0.796 WHIP over 19 appearances. If the Braves don’t bring him back, there will be interest in the soon-to-be 38 year old’s services this winter.

Will that be in Toronto? I sincerely doubt it for a few reasons. One, the Jays seem to prefer relievers that fit a different profile than the side-winding O’Day, who is generally limited to one inning these days, and doesn’t throw particularly hard. That obviously hasn’t stopped him from getting great results, but I’d be surprised to see the Blue Jays pursue him unless there was a bargain to be had, which likely won’t be the case after his productive 2020 season.

More importantly, I sincerely doubt that O’Day would want to join the Blue Jays unless they were the clear leader with a contract offer. It sounds petty, but big moments like what happened between Bautista and O’Day can stick with some players, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the former Orioles’ memories at the Rogers Centre in Toronto aren’t that fond.

To be honest, I likely shouldn’t even have included O’Day on this list, as I expect that the Braves will exercise their 3.5 million dollar option on him for 2021. However, it’s fun to dig up old memories like the rivalry with Bautista. For that reason and more, don’t expect to see O’Day joining the Blue Jays’ bullpen this winter.

Great player, just doesn’t fit

It feels like the Blue Jays are entering this off-season with less needs than usual, although there’s no denying they could use another high-end starting pitcher for next season. However, there are some areas that they have well covered already, and I’d point to first base/DH as one that can be checked off at this early stage.

Between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez, the Blue Jays could have their solution to 1B/DH for many years to come, and they’ll continue to use the DH spot rest other regulars as well. With that in mind, I can’t imagine a scenario where they would pursue someone like Nelson Cruz, who is set to become a free agent again this winter.

The ageless wonder continues to be one of the best hitters in the American League, as he posted a .303/.397/.595 slash line with 16 home runs and 33 RBI in 185 at-bats this season. Most 40 year olds are forced out of the game, and yet Cruz seems like he’s still improving, and there should be plenty of teams interested in paying him handsomely on a one-year contract this winter. He was scheduled to make 12 million before MLB salaries were prorated this year, and I suspect that he’ll receive a well-earned raise, even as a 40-year-old who is limited to designated hitting duties.

Normally I’d be all for the Blue Jays adding a veteran like Cruz to a talented young group like they have in Toronto, but unfortunately it just doesn’t look like there’s a fit to be had. Most likely, I assume that the Twins hope to bring him back for at least one more year, as they should.

Shortstop is already occupied

Despite the fact that the Blue Jays have a franchise calibre shortstop on their roster, it seems like we’re always talking about potential upgrades to the infield. Whether it was rumours about Didi Gregorius last winter, or drooling about the idea or pursuing Francisco Lindor this winter, it comes up a lot.

And I just don’t see it happening, at least not yet.

Lindor would be a game-changer, and it’s possible that Bo Bichette would give up his position with no issue if it meant improving the team that much, but that’s a long shot at best. However, when you look at the free agent market this winter, there are several middle infielders that are bound to be linked to the Blue Jays. That could include Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, or even more talk of signing Didi. I feel like those rumours are inevitable, but I wouldn’t pay much attention to them.

Right now the Blue Jays are in an enviable position with their infield ranks. Vlad Jr. and Rowdy have first base taken care of, Bichette is a budding star at short, and Cavan Biggio is more than capable at either second or third base. When you consider that they have top 100 prospects like Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans who aren’t all that far from reaching the highest level, I don’t think the infield is an area we’ll see an impact move being made this winter.

More likely, I suspect the Jays will look for a veteran they can plug at third base on a 1-2 year deal while their prospects get the experience they need, and that could even come by retaining Travis Shaw. I do think the Blue Jays acknowledge that their defence has to improve, but I don’t think they’re ready to do something drastic like move Bichette off of shortstop unless it means they’re getting a Lindor-calibre player.

Not that I should throw cold water on an idea that hasn’t even started yet, but I’ll be rolling my eyes when the Simmons to Toronto rumours start in a month or two.

A snowball’s chance in Hell

As I scanned the list of potential free agents this winter, there’s one player that I’m all but certain won’t be returning to Toronto. In fact, I’d bet pretty much everything I own that there won’t be a reunion with Marcus Stroman this off-season.

It’s a fun idea to think about, fleecing the Mets by getting Simeon Woods Richardson (#93 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) and Anthony Kay in exchange for Stroman, and then re-signing him back a year and a half later. That would especially sting for the Mets, who only got 11 starts from the right-hander in 2019, and then saw injuries/an opt-out have him miss all of 2020. In hindsight, the Mets paid a fairly hefty price and didn’t get a lot in return, at least not yet.

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However, the chances of Stroman returning to Toronto are almost zero. The man who once had the Toronto skyline tattooed on his body has had that artwork covered up, and has moved on from his first MLB home. There was no love lost between him and the front office in 2019, as Stroman publicly called them out over extension talks (or a lack there of), and it was clear the relationship was greatly strained, if not irreparably damaged.

While the Blue Jays could theoretically use someone with his skill set to slot in behind Hyun Jin Ryu, I can’t imagine that either side would be interested in a reunion. Even after not pitching in 2020, Stroman is going to command a sizeable salary, and I suspect that Ross Atkins and company would feel far more comfortable spending it on someone like Taijuan Walker. There’s no guarantee that comes together either, but it appears that the Blue Jays and Walker had a mutually positive experience down the stretch, which is a lot more than can be said the end of Stroman’s tenure in Toronto. My colleague Tyson Shushkewich wrote about the possibility of a reunion yesterday, and again, it’s fun to think about, but he ultimately agreed that the chances are slim to none.

So while the Blue Jays have all kinds of options on the table to improve the roster over the winter, there are some potential free agents that can be crossed off before things even get officially started. Who did I miss? Which other free agents can you all but guarantee won’t work for the Blue Jays?