Blue Jays: Starting Rotation Depth Chart ahead of Free Agency

Behind ace Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves pretty thin in the starting rotation ahead of free agency and the winter meetings.

After a successful 2020 campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays head into the off-season looking to build off the momentum gained from the club’s first playoff appearance since 2016. General Manager Ross Atkins has a number of positions to fill on the roster in the coming months with openings in the bullpen, outfield depth concerns, and a big question mark at third base.

The most pressing need for the team however is what to do in the starting rotation behind ace Hyun-Jin Ryu. Taijaun Walker, Matt Shoemaker, and Robbie Ray are all free agents, while Chase Anderson has a hefty club option that the club might be looking to walk away from. That leaves the Blue Jays with far more questions than answers with the starting staff.

Young arms such as Jordan Romano, Ryan Borucki, Thomas Hatch, and Julian Merryweather are all players that the club could choose to stretch out next spring. All would seem destined to start in Buffalo if that were the case or they could simply return to a bullpen that will be in need of quality arms. Even if one or two of those players are able to surprise, none should be expected to start a full slate of games next season. It’s clear that the Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in upgrading the rotation with established big league arms. Here’s what the team’s current depth chart looks like as they enter the off-season.

Ace of the Staff

Hyun-Jin Ryu
Despite a disappointing playoff performance against the Tampa Bay Rays, Hyun-Jin Ryu came as advertised in 2020. The 33-year-old southpaw went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA over 12 starts in his first season as a Blue Jay. Ryu struck out 72 hitters over his 67 innings of work while surrendering just 17 walks and six home runs. After a slow start, Ryu found his groove in August and ended the season giving up two or fewer runs in nine of his last 10 starts. The Blue Jays finished with a 9-3 record when Ryu took the mound.

If there is an area of concern surrounding Ryu it has to do with his ability to log innings. Ryu pitched into the 7th just once this season and topped out at 100 pitches in his final start against the New York Yankees. In comparison, Ryu cleared the 100 pitch plateau nine times with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019 and pitched into the 7th inning 16 times in his 29 starts that year.

Ryu has never eaten innings like a Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer on the mound, clearing 180 innings pitched just twice in his big league career. However, with so many question marks behind him, it would be nice to see Ryu given a longer leash in 2021. The Blue Jays choosing to pull pitchers early was a key talking point around the team this summer and eventually led to some shaky performances from an overworked bullpen. Ryu will no doubt be leaned upon heavily next season and his ability to give the team some longer starts will go a long way towards earning another trip to the playoffs next October.

Rounding out the Staff

Nate Pearson
The big wild card entering next season will be what the Blue Jays can expect from top prospect Nate Pearson. This season was supposed to be a big one in Pearson’s development. Under normal circumstances, the big righty would have begun the season starting games in Buffalo (with the Bisons), before graduating to the big club. Instead, Pearson logged just 20 innings of work when you include his strong outing against the Rays in the playoffs.

Pearson has electric stuff and dominated over 25 starts in the minor leagues in 2019. Still, he threw just over 100 innings last season and will be hard-pressed to step into the rotation and make it through a 162-game big-league schedule at 24 years of age. Pearson will unquestionably pitch in plenty of games with Toronto next season. However, starting the season in Buffalo might be the best option for a player who will likely influence the team’s future World Series aspirations more than anyone else in the organization.

Ross Stripling
Ross Stripling is the only deadline addition that remains under team control this off-season. Stripling is arbitration-eligible and seems like a good option to return in a swingman role next year. The five-year vet has made 61 starts in 148 big league appearances going 23-27 with a 3.77 career ERA. Like Roark and Anderson, his 2020 numbers were the worst of his career, however, the Blue Jays can bring Stripling back at a much lower price point than those other two. Stripling was a fan favorite in Los Angeles and is by all accounts a great person to have in the clubhouse. Expect him to return as a depth option that the Blue Jays will utilize in a number of different roles next season.

Trent Thornton
A disappointing season ended early for Trent Thornton when he went on the IL with an elbow injury after just three starts. Thornton performed admirably his rookie season in 2019, starting 29 games and posting a 6-9 record with a 4.84 ERA on a pretty bad team. He now faces a long rehab in the hopes of being ready for spring training. The Blue Jays will give Thornton every opportunity to earn a spot in the big leagues next year but as of now, he appears destined for the rotation in Buffalo once he’s healthy enough to return.

As things stand today, the Blue Jays have just two players set in the rotation for next year. They have plenty of depth options behind them, along with a number of question marks. Expect the team to be very active in acquiring starting pitching this off-season, with Walker, Shoemaker, and Ray all potential options to bring back for another run. Beyond that, the front office will likely try to wait out the market and add some value arms as they have in the past.