Blue Jays: Starting Rotation Depth Chart ahead of Free Agency

Ace of the Staff

Hyun-Jin Ryu
Despite a disappointing playoff performance against the Tampa Bay Rays, Hyun-Jin Ryu came as advertised in 2020. The 33-year-old southpaw went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA over 12 starts in his first season as a Blue Jay. Ryu struck out 72 hitters over his 67 innings of work while surrendering just 17 walks and six home runs. After a slow start, Ryu found his groove in August and ended the season giving up two or fewer runs in nine of his last 10 starts. The Blue Jays finished with a 9-3 record when Ryu took the mound.

If there is an area of concern surrounding Ryu it has to do with his ability to log innings. Ryu pitched into the 7th just once this season and topped out at 100 pitches in his final start against the New York Yankees. In comparison, Ryu cleared the 100 pitch plateau nine times with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019 and pitched into the 7th inning 16 times in his 29 starts that year.

Ryu has never eaten innings like a Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer on the mound, clearing 180 innings pitched just twice in his big league career. However, with so many question marks behind him, it would be nice to see Ryu given a longer leash in 2021. The Blue Jays choosing to pull pitchers early was a key talking point around the team this summer and eventually led to some shaky performances from an overworked bullpen. Ryu will no doubt be leaned upon heavily next season and his ability to give the team some longer starts will go a long way towards earning another trip to the playoffs next October.

Overpriced Veterans

Tanner Roark
Like it or not, Tanner Roark is currently penciled in as the Jays number two starter next season. Making $12 million, Roark is the second-highest-paid player on the roster and, barring a surprise move, will be in the rotation again next year. Roark is an eight-year big league vet coming off his worst season as a pro. The 33-year-old righty was labeled as an inning-eater when the Blue Jays signed him last winter and in that regard he got the job done, logging the second-most innings on the team. The results were forgettable, however, as Roark went 2-3 over 11 starts with a 6.80 ERA and a team-high 14 home runs given up.

Roark was not on the Blue Jays post-season roster and inspired little confidence from the fanbase throughout the year. However, prior to 2020, Roark was a serviceable starter for six consecutive seasons and even earned a Cy Young vote back in 2016 with the Nationals. A return to that form is unlikely, but if Roark can post something in the vicinity of his 3.83 career ERA he could still salvage his second season with Toronto. Ideally, some moves will be made this winter to push Roark down into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but don’t expect his contract to be on the move anytime soon.

Chase Anderson
Chase Anderson will be on the Toronto Blue Jays payroll one way or another next season. Anderson has a $9.5 million club option equipped with a $500,000 buyout and is currently the third most experienced pitcher under club control. Like Roark, Anderson had a rough year going 1-2 with an ugly 7.22 ERA over 33.2 innings of work. He made seven starts and appeared three times out of the bullpen.

Similar to Roark, Chase Anderson was acquired to log innings and subsequently suffered through his worst season in the Majors. Even if he is able to bounce back and post something closer to his career ERA of 4.06, it seems unlikely that it will be in Toronto for such a hefty price tag.

Rounding out the Staff

Nate Pearson
The big wild card entering next season will be what the Blue Jays can expect from top prospect Nate Pearson. This season was supposed to be a big one in Pearson’s development. Under normal circumstances, the big righty would have begun the season starting games in Buffalo (with the Bisons), before graduating to the big club. Instead, Pearson logged just 20 innings of work when you include his strong outing against the Rays in the playoffs.

Pearson has electric stuff and dominated over 25 starts in the minor leagues in 2019. Still, he threw just over 100 innings last season and will be hard-pressed to step into the rotation and make it through a 162-game big-league schedule at 24 years of age. Pearson will unquestionably pitch in plenty of games with Toronto next season. However, starting the season in Buffalo might be the best option for a player who will likely influence the team’s future World Series aspirations more than anyone else in the organization.

Ross Stripling
Ross Stripling is the only deadline addition that remains under team control this off-season. Stripling is arbitration-eligible and seems like a good option to return in a swingman role next year. The five-year vet has made 61 starts in 148 big league appearances going 23-27 with a 3.77 career ERA. Like Roark and Anderson, his 2020 numbers were the worst of his career, however, the Blue Jays can bring Stripling back at a much lower price point than those other two. Stripling was a fan favorite in Los Angeles and is by all accounts a great person to have in the clubhouse. Expect him to return as a depth option that the Blue Jays will utilize in a number of different roles next season.

Trent Thornton
A disappointing season ended early for Trent Thornton when he went on the IL with an elbow injury after just three starts. Thornton performed admirably his rookie season in 2019, starting 29 games and posting a 6-9 record with a 4.84 ERA on a pretty bad team. He now faces a long rehab in the hopes of being ready for spring training. The Blue Jays will give Thornton every opportunity to earn a spot in the big leagues next year but as of now, he appears destined for the rotation in Buffalo once he’s healthy enough to return.

As things stand today, the Blue Jays have just two players set in the rotation for next year. They have plenty of depth options behind them, along with a number of question marks. Expect the team to be very active in acquiring starting pitching this off-season, with Walker, Shoemaker, and Ray all potential options to bring back for another run. Beyond that, the front office will likely try to wait out the market and add some value arms as they have in the past.