Blue Jays: The pros and cons of extending Ken Giles

Ken Giles’ contract is up at the end of the season, and the Blue Jays will spend the next few months weighing the pros and cons of extending him.

The Blue Jays had both good and bad news when it came to their star closer Ken Giles this week. Unfortunately he had to leave the game against the Rays last weekend and was placed on the Injured List, but it also sounds like he’s going to be able to avoid surgery, as it’s been reported that he’s feeling a little bit better after an injection in his sore elbow.

The next few months could determine a lot about the future of Ken Giles’ career. As a pending free agent, he could be a sought after commodity provided he’s healthy and productive this year. He’s already experienced a hiccup in the health department, which is a little concerning after a season of battling elbow issues in 2019 as well. That said, premium closers don’t grow on trees, and there will be plenty of interest this winter as long he’s healthy.

The question is, should the Blue Jays be the leading candidate to retain his services?

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There are pros and cons to the idea of extending Giles’ contract beyond this year, and I’m sure that Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office have been weighing them for some time. There were plenty of calls for the Jays to consider extending him this past offseason, but it appears that it was wise to wait and see how things went in 2020 first.

The unfortunate reality for closers is that they’re rarely a sound investment when it requires a big-money, multi-year contract. That’s even more often the case with players who are 30 or over, and Giles will turn 30 in September of this year. We’re seeing that in full view with Craig Kimbrel over the last year or so, as the Cubs haven’t had much of a return on their investment. The same goes for others like Wade Davis, who has struggled since signing with the Rockies. The Blue Jays have had their own version of this situation before as well when the five-year deal they handed to B.J. Ryan ended up mostly being a flop.

It’s a risk to invest in a closer, not just because of age-related decline, but also because of year to year results. There are only a handful of pitchers that find success at the position throughout their careers, and so far Giles has been the exception more than the rule that way. That said, he’s approaching an important threshold at 30 years old later this year, and his elbow hasn’t offered a lot encouragement lately.

On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to retain someone as talented as Giles. First and foremost, the emphasis on the bullpen has never been greater in the big leagues, and teams are investing in the position more than ever. Even if Giles doesn’t throw another inning this year, there is going to be interest in him over the winter because of his track record of success, and with the need around the league. He holds a career 2.71 ERA and a 1.115 WHIP over 355 big league appearances, earning 115 saves.

He’s also been very good when he has been healthy in a Blue Jays uniform. Since arriving in Toronto he’s lowered those numbers to a 2.66 ERA and a 1.076 WHIP across 76 appearances. By all accounts he’s enjoyed his time as a Blue Jay, and is even open to extending his stay beyond his current contract. As much as we hate to admit, convincing players to come to Toronto has been a significant battle in free agency over the years, and they wouldn’t have to work hard to convince Giles of the upside.

The Blue Jays also have a need at the back of their bullpen as they look to put the finishing touches on this rebuild. They have some other very encouraging bullpen arms like Anthony Bass, Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis and more, but a reliable closer is worth their weight in gold, and it’s hard to hold any of those pitchers in that regard, at least not yet. There should be plenty of payroll space to invest in the bullpen over the next few years as well, as the majority of the young core are playing on rookie-level contracts, giving the front office a lot of flexibility. Money shouldn’t be the issue, within reason of course.

The only real issue has been Giles’ ability to stay on the field, and it’s troublesome that it seems to be his elbow that keeps popping up as the problem. That makes it difficult to give him a multi-year deal, and chances are he’s going to seek a 3-5 year deal as a free agent this winter. If he’s healthy and appears to have put the elbow issues behind him, I’m sure the Blue Jays will be interested. If he can’t prove himself to be healthy though, it’s hard to say what could happen once he hits the free agent market.

For now the Blue Jays will focus on helping him get healthy, and doing their best in his absence. For the time being, the whole time is sidelined because of a postponement of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies, and hopefully Giles can continue to see improvement and be able to re-join the team sooner than later. As for his future, I imagine that decision will come later this year, after we see just how healthy that elbow really is.