Blue Jays: The big questions for this team in a 60 game season

What does this mean for Nate Pearson?

Let’s face it, Nate Pearson is going to be one of the most talked about Blue Jays over the next month. There are a lot of good reasons for that, as he’s currently rated #8 on the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list, and has the type of arsenal that baseball fans dream about.

Earlier this year it looked like Pearson would be destined for a start in Triple-A Buffalo, with the assumption that he’d make his MLB debut at some point later in the year. Part of the rationale for holding him back would have been around service time, but he was also going to need to take a gradual approach to building up his innings limit as well.

Now that the season is going to be just 60 games, there is no physical reason to hold him back from the big league squad. If the team utilized a five-man rotation, he would make a maximum of 12 starts before the post-season. He’s probably looking a season of 60-70 innings under that format, which is easily manageable.

That said, I wouldn’t say that it’s a guarantee that Pearson will make the team to start this strange new season. That could depend on how the rules will impact his service time, and how good the Blue Jays are at finding a justifiable angle. Per the agreement made back in March, players will receive a full year of service time if they play the whole season. That could mean that the Blue Jays will have no choice but to surrender that extra year of contract control. Here’s how it worked according to the agreement from March:

“If games are played, a player would receive service equal to days in the major leagues multiplied by 186 (days in the original season’s schedule), divided by the number of days in the revised schedule after excluding interruptions in play. A full service year remains 172 days. If no games are played, each player on the major league roster or injured list would receive major league service equaling what that player accrued in 2019. Players on the restricted list would not receive any service time.”

That said, they do have a full five-man rotation with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker, and other options like Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, or even Shun Yamaguchi. The front office could make the argument that they don’t need Pearson to start the year, it’s just not a good one. Ideally you want to see your team put the best possible product on the field, and with all due respect to the rest of the pitchers on the 40-man roster, it’s hard to imagine how Pearson doesn’t fit the bill.

At this stage it remains unclear how the service time will work for players who do not start the season on the active roster, but the assumption is that initial agreement will remain in place, at least unless we hear otherwise.

Where will they play?

With the border between Canada and the United States being closed to non-essential travel right now, the Blue Jays really don’t have the option of hosting their home games in Toronto. That could change in a month’s time of course, but it’s not looking like that will be the case.

There has been talk that the Blue Jays are seeking to have their spring training in Toronto, especially in light of the Coronavirus outbreaks in Florida right now, where their spring training facilities are located. That said, it doesn’t sound like they’ve gained clearance just yet, and would still be subject to a 14-day quarantine just like anyone else.

According to Richard Griffin, a former writer and current spokesman for the Blue Jays, “The regular season locale is still a work in progress. That’s all we can say at this time”. There has been speculation that they could play their regular season games at their spring training compound, provided it’s safe of course, or maybe even use “the Trop” as an alternative home base for now (wouldn’t that be just… gross).

The reality is, we don’t really know where the Blue Jays will be playing their home games yet, and that’s a strange thing to say now that there’s an agreement in place. That said, 2020 has been a year of a lot of unanswered questions and quickly changing plans, so I don’t know that it should alarm anyone just yet.

It will be an issue that will have to be sorted out, but as things stand today, it’s hard to imagine there being Blue Jays games in Canada this year. Bummer.

How does this work exactly?

The details of Tuesday’s agreement are still being made public, and it sounds like it’s going to be a creative season of baseball.

As we’ve heard in the past, there will be a new division structure that means the Blue Jays and the AL East will amalgamate with the NL East. According to details from the Associated Press yesterday, it sounds like each team will play 10 games against their own division rivals, and five against the teams from the other league. For the Blue Jays that means 10 games each against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles, and five each against the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Miami Marlins.

It sounds like the number of post-season teams won’t be changing and will stay at 10, but there are some other tweaks for this season including a Universal DH, and starting a runner on base during extra innings. The size of the roster will be a little different as well, as it sounds like teams will be able to carry 30 players to start the season, and will gradually reduce the number to 26. There will also be expanded taxi squads and eligible players on the roster, as the league needs to prepare for the possibility that players could contract the illness and need time away to recover, and keep others safe.

I think we’ll have to accept that the situation could be fluid, even if and when play resumes. All we really know for now is that the plan is to re-start spring training on July 1, and that the regular season schedule should get underway on July 23 or 24. There’s an agreement in place for now, but don’t be surprised if there are still changes yet to come, especially before that first pitch is thrown next month.

A few smaller questions

I could probably keep you here all day with questions that the Blue Jays will face in 2020, but I thought I’d finish off with a bit of a quick-hits section.

If they’re combining the AL and NL East, does that mean we’ll see the Blue Jays face off against Marcus Stroman this year?

Assuming he’s healthy when they reach that part of the schedule, I’m guessing the Blue Jays will get to face their former starter. It’s a shame there won’t be any fans in the stands, or that the game almost assuredly won’t take place at the Rogers Centre, but it should be a fun game to tune in for anyway.

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Will we see Austin Martin in the big leagues this year?

I mean, after the way 2020 has gone I’m not going to give you a definitive no, but I would count that as a major surprise. He’s going to need some time in the minor leagues before he’s ready, but he should be a very exciting player when that day comes. Just don’t expect it to be in 2020.

Do the Blue Jays have a chance?

Maybe? I mean, I wouldn’t say the odds are stacked in their favour with the way the divisions have lined up. They’ll compete against playoff contenders in the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox in their own division, and they’ll also get the defending World Series champs in the Nationals (who had extra time to rest), the real-deal Braves, and a pair of teams in the Mets and Phillies that have real potential.

However, with a 60-game season, it’s going to be about who gets hot at the right time. The shorter the schedule, the more opportunity for wild cards in the results, especially if players start contracting the virus and have to sit out. I don’t expect the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, especially if it’s just 10 teams, but crazier things have happened.