Toronto Blue Jays series simulation: Rays vs. Jays

With the season on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m doing a simulation based on the Blue Jays schedule using the online version of Statis Pro.

For those of you that follow Mike Wilner on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed the simulated season he’s been doing. What he’s been up to lately is very similar to what I’m doing, just that we’re using different games to do it. I have also made an account for the simulations on Instagram that can be followed @jays.simgames.

After a quick road trip, the Jays host the Rays for a 3 game series at home before they’re off an interleague road trip.

How Statis Pro Works 

Just like a real ball game, you set your lineup by choosing each player’s spot in the batting order, and everything else that comes with managing a ball game. Basically you are the manager.

To play, you have cards that you go through that have a bunch of information on them. Each pitcher has a PB number with the lowest number starting at 2, and the highest number going at 9. For example, Hyun-Jin Ryu has a PB of 2-9 so if you flip a card with a PB of 7, you go based off the stats on his card. If you flip a card and get a PB of 11, you go based on the stats of the batter’s card.

After you flip the first card, you have to flip another card to determine the random number. Let’s say you get the first card of a PB 7 with Ryu pitching and the random number is 38. Ryu’s card may have a strikeout from the numbers 22-46, meaning if you get a PB 7 and a random number of 38, Ryu struck out whoever he faced.

Let’s say Ryu is pitching and he’s facing J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox. You flip the first card and get a PB of 10 and you flip the next card and get a random number of 26. Martinez’s card may have a double to centrefield as 24-26, meaning if you get a PB of 10 and a random number of 26, Martinez got a double off Ryu.

A few things to take into consideration with a simulated season:

• No trades
• No injuries for other teams unless it’s during the series against the Jays
• No prospects can be called up
• No standings to determine records of other teams in the league

Game 73 

Starting pitchers 

Blue Jays: Anthony Kay
Rays: Yonny Chirinos

Lineups 

Rays

Margot CF
Tsutsugo 3B
Meadows RF
Martinez DH
Diaz 1B
Renfroe LF
Adames SS
Lowe 2B
Smith C

Blue Jays

Bichette SS
Panik 2B
Grichuk RF
Tellez 1B
Hernandez LF
McGuire C
Shaw 3B
McKinney DH
Alford CF

Game recap

In the 3rd, Lowe came home on a Tsutsugo single. The other only offence came when Smith started the fifth inning with a home run. The 7th inning was the only inning where the Jays had more than three guys come to the plate.

Final score: Rays 2 Blue Jays 0

Key stats (Rays)

Chirinos: 9 IP 8 K 2 H 1 BB 0 ER CG W

Lowe: 1 for 3 with a double and a walk

Smith: 1 for 3 with a HR

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Gaviglio: 4IP 5K 0H 2BB 0ER

Game 74

Starting pitchers 

Blue Jays: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rays: Ryan Yarbrough

Lineups 

Rays

Adames SS
Tsutsugo 3B
Meadows RF
Martinez DH
Diaz 1B
Renfroe LF
Zunino C
Wendle 2B
Kiermaier CF

Blue Jays

Alford CF
Bichette SS
Grichuk RF
Tellez DH
Hernandez LF
Drury 3B
Jansen C
McKinney 1B
Tejada 2B

Game recap

Tellez, the team leader in home runs, hit a two-run bomb in the first to give the Jays an early lead. In the 4th, Ryu walked Diaz, which was the first walk Ryu has given up in several starts. In the 6th, Grichuk hit a solo shot which caused the Rays to go to their bullpen. The Rays put up a run in the 7th as Renfroe scored, but the Jays responded by putting up two in the bottom half to secure the win.

Final score: Blue Jays 5 Rays 1

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Ryu: 7IP 9K 5H 1BB 1ER W

Yamaguchi: 2IP 3K 0H 1BB 0ER

Grichuk: 1 for 4 with a HR

Tellez: 1 for 4 with a HR

Jansen: 1 for 2 with a HBP

McKinney: 2 for 3

Key stats (Rays)

Andrew Kittredge: 0.2IP 0K 3H 0BB 2ER

Peter Fairbanks: 1.2IP 4K 0H 1BB 0ER

Game 75 

Starting pitchers 

Blue Jays: Tanner Roark
Rays: Blake Snell

Lineups 

Rays

Kiermaier CF
Meadows RF
Diaz 3B
Martinez DH
Tsutsugo LF
Choi 1B
Zunino C
Lowe 2B
Adames SS

Blue Jays

Bichette SS
Drury 3B
Grichuk RF
Tellez DH
Hernandez LF
McKinney 1B
Jansen C
Panik 2B
Davis CF

Game recap

In the 3rd, Diaz brought home Adames on a single. Next inning, Choi went deep and Zunino scored a run as well. In the 8th, Lowe hit a grand slam to make it 7-0. It soon became 7-1 when Bichette hit a solo homer. In the bottom of the 9th, Zunino had to leave the game as he got injured off a foul tip off the bat of Hernandez who ended up striking out. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, the Jays had a bit of a rally as they put up back-to-back walks and then back-to-back singles which scored the Jays 2 runs but that rally was put to an end when Bichette struckout to end the game.

Final score: Rays 7 Blue Jays 3

Key stats (Rays)

Snell: 9IP 16K 5H 4BB 3ER 1HR CG W

Diaz: 3 for 4 with a walk

Choi: 1 for 4 with a HR and a walk

Zunino: 2 for 3 with a double and a walk

Lowe: 2 for 4 with a HR

Adames: 2 for 4

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Roark: 4.1IP 3K 9H 0BB 3ER L

Cole: 2IP 4K 0H 1BB 0ER

Bichette: 1 for 5 with a HR

Grichuk: 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts

Panik: 2 for 3 with a walk

Blue Jays simulation record: 43-32

With the Jays now 75 games into the season, how do you think a record of 43-32 would place them in the AL East? Do you think the Jays would currently be in a playoff spot with that record? Comment what you think